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BNN BLOOMBERG INTERVIEW WITH GRACE WILTON - TOTALENERGIES SIGNS DEAL TO BUY LNG FROM WESTERN CANADA

May 22, 2025 • 1 min read

In a recent interview with BNN, our senior energy advisor Grace Wilton discussed a new development in Canada's liquefied natural gas (LNG) landscape. French energy giant TotalEnergies has acquired a 5% stake in Western LNG, a Houston-based company, which gives TotalEnergies the option to directly invest 10% in the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG export facility. The Ksi Lisims LNG project is being developed by the Nisga'a Nation in partnership with Western LNG and Rockies LNG. While the project is stil...

May 22, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The more things change, the more they stay the same, and nothing could be truer than what is happening now in the energy markets thanks to the mental gyrations of President Donald Trump. Example: yesterday, in the morning, the price of crude went up because it was rumoured that Israel, according to U.S. i...

May 16, 2025 • < 1 min read

Our chief petroleum analyst, Roger McKnight, was recently quoted by CP24 discussing how the "Trump factor" and other market forces may impact gas prices this summer. Read the article here: Summer gas prices: 'Trump factor' could cause volatility

May 08, 2025 • 1 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Stop this merry-go-round. I want to get off! That’s what must be going through the minds of oil traders, producers, politicians, and consumers. You can see why they don’t like this economic fairground ride. Was it not long ago that OPEC decided to cut back production by 2.2 millio...

Apr 30, 2025 • 2 min read

The results are in, and the Canadian electorate has decided; Mark Carney’s Liberals won the election on Monday night with 169 seats versus the Conservatives’ 144 seats. Carney will officially be leading a minority government as soon as he forms it. Yves-François Blanchet, leader of the Bloq Quebecois (BQ), with a total of 22 seats, has said he will support Prime Minister Carney for one year “with conditions”, one of which is a payout of $814 million, the equivalent...

Apr 29, 2025 • 3 min read

Canada is finally set to join the global industry of exporting liquified natural gas (LNG) in 2025. The LNG Canada project in Kitimat, in the traditional territory of the Haisla Nation in British Columbia, will be Canada’s first LNG export facility, aiming to provide lower-carbon, reliable Canadian LNG to Asian markets. In this blog post, we’ll examine the opportunities and challenges ahead. The LNG Canada Project: Canada’s Landmark Investment The LNG ...

Apr 28, 2025 • < 1 min read

Read the Financial Post article here: Gas prices have dropped — but will they stay down for road-trip season?

Apr 24, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. With the start of the driving season just a little over a month away, the question that comes up every year is, “what will gas prices be like this summer?” The answer is that supply mechanics are more important right now than demand guesstimates. Let’s face it, we are not in normal times...

Apr 23, 2025 • 3 min read

Earlier this month, Ontario Power Generation (OPG), the province's largest electricity generator, announced plans to build two new hydroelectric dams in the Kapuskasing area of northern Ontario. This would mark the first new hydroelectric stations constructed in the province in over a decade. This proposal represents a significant investment in electricity infrastructure, aligning with the broader efforts to expand Ontario's generation capacity from emission-free sources. In this blog post, we&r...

Apr 17, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. In case you missed it – a new game show recently hit the airwaves. Fast moving it is. Skillfully produced it is not. Welcome to… “Name That Tariff.” It’s a show that will test your patience and mostly insult your intelligence. If you don’t know the opening theme son...

Apr 17, 2025 • 3 min read

At En-Pro, we closely monitor regulatory changes and market dynamics that can impact our clients' energy strategies. Recently, we've been following the ongoing debate around Alberta's treatment of renewable energy imports from the United States, and the implications this has for businesses operating in the province. Alberta’s Renewable Energy Discrimination Allegations According to a complaint filed with the National Energy Board, the Alberta government has been discriminating ag...

Apr 04, 2025 • 1 min read

AN ECONOMIC TITANIC · Pump prices should fall by 7 cents per litre on Saturday, April 5, 2025. · Average price $1.329 · Decrease is due to the Trump tariff rampage, which is stoking a global fear of a recession. This fear has reduced demand for crude oil and lowered any anticipated demand for gasoline. These tariffs will increase the cost of all consumer goods...

Apr 03, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Beating your head against a brick wall can be a futile exercise unless the wall gets softer, or your head gets harder. That’s the conundrum facing us now with the latest, or, this hour’s, logic-defying list of evil doers and their penalties as prescribed by the tariff king, President Tru...

Mar 31, 2025 • 2 min read

Ontario is embarking on a new journey with the implementation of the Independent Electricity System Operator's (IESO) Market Renewal Program scheduled to launch May 1, 2025. The initiative aims to address inefficiencies in Ontario’s current electricity market and improve how electricity is supplied, scheduled, and priced to meet Ontario's needs at the lowest cost. At En-Pro, we’re here to support our clients through the transition. Let’s unpack the program details and how it w...

Mar 28, 2025 • 3 min read

The Federal Government’s Announcement At En-Pro we understand the importance of staying up-to-date with the ever-changing landscape of carbon pricing policies. The recent announcement by the federal government to remove the consumer carbon tax presents both opportunities and challenges for Canadian businesses. If you want to ensure your organization is prepared for these changes and positioned for success, we encourage you to read on and reach out to our team of experts. On March 14, 202...

Mar 27, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Are we watching a kid in a candy store or a bull in a China shop? I guess it depends on whether you’re the kid or the bull. You all know where this intro is going so let’s get to it. It is hard, if not impossible, to figure out which script President Trump is following on w...

Mar 17, 2025 • 2 min read

In our previous blog post from February 2025 (read here: Electricity rates soar in Ontario: En-pro helps businesses manage the volatility), we reported on the significant spike in Ontario electricity rates during the month of January, resulting in increased costs for businesses and households across the province. Unfortunately, this trend has continued, with electricity costs reaching new highs in February. The all-in Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP) and Global Adjustment (GA) settled at ...

Mar 14, 2025 • 3 min read

As the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada continues to escalate, businesses across Ontario are facing significant impacts from the resulting tariffs. At En-Pro, we understand the challenges these market changes can pose for your energy costs and operations. Let’s take a closer look at how these tariffs are affecting electricity exports and prices in the province. Ontario’s Electricity Export Surcharge In response to the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on...

Mar 13, 2025 • 1 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. It is claimed that a new car loses 30% of its value as soon as it’s driven off the dealership lot. On the eve of the coronation of our new, and hopefully improved, Prime Minister, Mark Carney, there are some questions he may want to ponder on our behalf before he starts his parliamentary engine. On...

Mar 07, 2025 • 8 min read

Introduction – How natural gas prices will be impacted if tariffs go through Figuring out what impact tariffs might have on natural gas costs is complicated as there are a lot of circumstances to consider. Recessions have always driven natural gas prices lower, and the idea that the U.S. economy could be driven into recession following the flip flopping of tariff threats by President Trump goes from unlikely to uncertain. Aside from this risk, the following analysis reviews how tariffs co...

Mar 06, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Are we there yet? Do the clocks go back or go forward? These are not the back seat questions from pre-schoolers. These, I surmise, are the finger drumming thoughts of oil traders, investors, or even, dare I say, the consumer. Where are gas and diesel prices now and where are they going? ...

Feb 28, 2025 • 5 min read

The rapid growth of data centers and the electrification of transportation and industry are reshaping Canada's energy landscape, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the power grid. At En-Pro, we're closely following these transformative shifts and working with clients to develop strategies to navigate these emerging trends. Our team of experts is ready to provide the insights and solutions you need to power your digital future. Data Centers: The New Energy Powerhouses The Rise of ...

Feb 27, 2025 • 1 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. I am convinced that political leaders on both sides of the border are addicted to reruns of the movie Back to the Future. You may remember, the plot of the movie was about correcting the past to protect the future – thereby avoiding the same mistakes. The sporadic threats of tariffs by President Tru...

Feb 20, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. In the not so distant “normal past,” the petroleum product pricing world was relatively easy to read and then forecast based on analysis of rudimentary supply and demand data. There was always a pinch of pixie dust of uncertainty when idiosyncrasies of geopolitics came into play. But things ha...

Feb 12, 2025 • 4 min read

The escalating trade tensions between Canada and the United States have significant implications for Canadian energy producers. On February 1st, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on virtually all Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, effective February 4th. This Monday, February 10th, Trump also confirmed a 25% import tariff on steel and aluminum, starting March 4th. In response, Canada hit back with 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of American exports. While a tempora...

Feb 07, 2025 • 1 min read

En-Pro International Inc. chief petroleum analyst Roger McKnight wrote in a post last week that if Mr. Trump applied a 25-per cent tariff on Canadian crude oil, pump prices would go up by at least 10 per cent. Prof. Steinberg said he’s seen estimates of increases ranging from 15 to 70 US cents per gallon in the U.S. Those prices could spill over to parts of Canada, with Quebec and Ontario likely seeing price increases similar to those in New York State, he said. To read the full Globe and...

Feb 06, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Oh Yeah! Well, just so you know, our tariffs are bigger than your tariffs. So there! Has it come down to, or maybe, will it come down to, political playground bragging rights? Who will be the first to take their ball and go home? We find ourselves on a magical mystery tour bus of the mood swin...

Feb 04, 2025 • 2 min read

Many consumers in Ontario will likely be surprised by their energy bills this month as electricity rates suddenly skyrocketed in January 2025, exceeding the highs set in 2022 and 2023. En-Pro is here to help businesses like you navigate this volatility. Our team of experts understands the complex factors driving these rate increases and can provide tailored strategies to optimize your energy costs. Let’s dive in! The primary driver of these elevated rates was consistently high electricity...

Jan 30, 2025 • 3 min read

At En-Pro, we understand the profound impact that natural gas market volatility can have on businesses. As an experienced energy management services provider, we've developed deep industry expertise and customized hedging strategies to help risk-averse clients effectively manage their natural gas costs - even in the face of drastic price fluctuations driven by factors like extreme weather events, supply and demand imbalances, and ongoing political issues. A polar vortex brought extreme cold tem...

Jan 30, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. So here we are, down to making educated guesses as to what, if any tariffs, will be applied to Canada’s U.S. bound exports. We are making guesses, yes that’s right, “guesses” on the thought processes of the leader of the most powerful economic force in the world. It does not...

Jan 23, 2025 • 3 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The political circus has come to town with its full entourage of clowns. The tickets to this show are getting more and more expensive and soon may be financially out of reach for the average consumer. Yes, President Trump is now officially the president re-elected and is in the building. The much feared 25% tari...

Jan 21, 2025 • 3 min read

En-Pro is closely following Ontario’s ambitious plans to expand its nuclear energy infrastructure. With a deep understanding of the evolving energy landscape, our team is well-positioned to help businesses and households navigate the implications of these transformative initiatives. Whether you're looking to optimize your energy strategy or explore new opportunities presented by Ontario's nuclear energy expansion, En-Pro is here to provide the insights and support you need. Ontario is a l...

Jan 16, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Two months ago, Canada’s politician in chief, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and his provincial subalterns, were all warned by the incoming U.S. president-elect Donald Trump that there would be a 25% tariff on all goods and services imported from Canada to the U.S. The response was a “yeah sur...

Jan 15, 2025 • 3 min read

At En-Pro, we are closely monitoring the developments in Alberta's electricity market and are ready to help our clients navigate the evolving landscape. As the Alberta government works to overhaul the electricity sector with the goal of improving stability and affordability for consumers, a key part of these reforms was the introduction of the "Rate of Last Resort" (ROLR) - a rebranded version of the former Regulated Rate Option (RRO). Well, the time has come - the ROLR officially launched on J...

Jan 09, 2025 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. I believe it’s safe to opine that we in this country endure a temperate climate with cold winters and hot summers. That’s fine. No problem, we all live with that. It is also appropriate to say that we tolerate a temperamental political leadership structure. I use this oxymoronic phrase while sq...

Jan 08, 2025 • 6 min read

It’s not too much to say that Canadians are going through a lot right now. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, and his proroguing of government, has left a feeling of uncertainty that is almost palpable. The PM’s decision to step down comes after intense pressure from Canadians and members of Mr. Trudeau’s own party. Now that it has happened, Canadians face more political upheaval as Liberals chase after a new party leader from now until March 24. While much of t...

Dec 19, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. All bets are off on who wins this game! Unless the game gets cancelled due to a case of second thoughts. Yes, I am referring to the, ‘Trumponium tariff tussle.’ You can take that one to the alliteration bank of collectables. Normally, at this time of year, I am asked to come up with a forecas...

Dec 12, 2024 • 1 min read

While Canada’s east coast Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) refinery languishes, British Columbia’s begins to flourish, but will it last? Braya Renewable Fuel’s Come by Chance refinery is on the verge of shutting down its operations that produce diesel made from fats and vegetable oils due to low margins and tax incentives from the U.S. nearing an end. The CBC’s Terry Roberts in St. John’s Newfoundland reported, “a grim financial state of things for the refine...

Dec 05, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. As poker players know, there are many variations of the game; and it's the dealer who determines the rules or what game will be dealt. So, it’s considered an unwise move to ante up in a poker game if the dealer doesn't let the players know what game is on the table. In the game of crude oil a...

Nov 28, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Think before you speak and know of which you speak. Then, maybe act. No, this is not plagiarized from some obscure Shakespearean sonnet, it is my own summation and reaction to the Trumpion edict that all imports from Canada and Mexico will be subject to a 25% tariff on Day 1 of his inauguration. I offer ...

Nov 27, 2024 • 3 min read

Tired of unpredictable energy bills? If eligible, En-Pro can help your business leverage the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI) program to gain more control over your electricity costs! As part of this program, your Global Adjustment (GA) costs are fixed to a certain percentage for an entire 12-month period based on your electricity usage over the past year, but this program does not require you to reduce your overall electricity usage or continually improve your performance. The ICI prog...

Nov 21, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. If the goal of the photo optimized COP 29, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as the environmental hug-a-thon taking place this week, is to force the demise of the fossil fuel industry and its patrons, then someone better warn Suncor because the message has been lost in translation &n...

Nov 21, 2024 • 3 min read

In the volatile natural gas market, effective hedging strategies are crucial for businesses looking to manage their energy costs and maintain a competitive edge. At En-Pro, our data-driven approach to natural gas hedging has consistently delivered results that outperform industry benchmarks, helping our clients achieve significant cost savings. The "conventional wisdom" strategy suggests that mid-February and early September, around Labour Day, are ideal times to secure a fixed-price deal in th...

Nov 15, 2024 • 2 min read

Have you been overpaying for electricity? New reports suggest that residents of Alberta have been paying too much for their electricity for decades. At En-Pro, our advanced forecasting models help businesses make informed decisions, anticipate market trends and lower electricity costs. Let's dive into the details and explore what this means for you. According to these recent reports, Albertans have overpaid on their electricity bills by billions of dollars since the province deregulated power g...

Nov 14, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Now that the exasperating U.S. presidential election process is behind us, what lies in wait, in front of us? If we focus on the energy sector and Canada’s interests, I can’t see what’s ahead because the proverbial crystal ball is foggy. Much has been made of the huffing and puffing by t...

Nov 11, 2024 • < 1 min read

Yahoo Finance’s Jeff Lagerquist on how Trump 2.0 could spike fuel costs – En-Pro’s Roger McKnight explains potential scenarios. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-prices-how-trump-20-could-spike-fuel-costs-160542800.html

Nov 07, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. If there was a battle cry to describe the results of the U.S. Presidential election, it would come from the Republican electorate who seem to be chanting “circle the wagons!” The newly re-elected Trump administration will be installed in January 2025, and it has made no secret about its plans ...

Oct 31, 2024 • 2 min read

As Enbridge progresses through Phase 2 of its 3-Phase natural gas rate harmonization process, Ontario consumers should be prepared for key changes affecting rate classes and billing structures. Understanding these changes will be helpful as they may influence both medium-term costs and long-term energy strategies. Let’s explore what these updates entail, who will be affected, and the timeline for implementation. Targeting an April 2026 implementation of a harmonized rate, the goal is to r...

Oct 25, 2024 • 4 min read

The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) has announced electricity prices under the Regulated Price Plan (RPP) for households, small businesses and farms will change as of November 1, 2024. As indicated by the OEB, a typical residential consumer who uses 700 kWh of electricity per month will see a decrease in bills by about $17 each month. The total bill impact for individual customers across the province will vary depending on the customer’s electricity usage and the utility that serves them....

Oct 24, 2024 • 3 min read

As our Chief Petroleum Analyst Roger McKnight [1] continues week three of civic jury duty, our Communications Director Susan Ponting catches up with Roger by email for another gas price Q&A. <SP> QUESTION: Would you agree that gas is seen as an emotional commodity? The reason I ask is because we’ve experienced a welcomed drop at the pumps of six cents or more across the country – this – along with our wonderfully warm summer weather in October usually makes headline ...

Oct 17, 2024 • 2 min read

As our Chief Petroleum Analyst Roger McKnight [1] continues his civic jury duty, our Communications Director Susan Ponting once again interviews Roger on a variety of questions. This week we look across Canada, starting in Ontario where gas prices dropped 5 cents in a single day; and then on to how, and why, gas prices in the east and west of Canada differ. <SP> QUESTION: There is a nice, big drop at the pumps today in Ontario of 5 cents – why is this? <RM> ANSWER: Be...

Oct 15, 2024 • 2 min read

Navigating the complexities of Ontario’s energy landscape requires staying on top of the latest trends and forecasts. At En-Pro, we provide the insights you need to make informed decisions, helping you manage energy costs and plan for the future with confidence. Our expertise in energy markets and procurement strategies ensures you have the tools to stay competitive, even as market conditions shift. The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) recently released its updated Reliabili...

Oct 10, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. This week’s Petroleum commentary comes to you in the form of a Q&A with our Communications Director, Susan Ponting and our Chief Petroleum Analyst, Roger McKnight – who is currently on jury duty. Q: Let’s start with the devastation of Hurricane Helene – and now &nda...

Oct 08, 2024 • 4 min read

Earlier this year, we discussed Alberta’s announcement of the "Rate of Last Resort" (ROLR), a rebranded version of the Regulated Rate Option (RRO). This change was introduced to protect consumers from electricity price spikes and encourage greater participation in the competitive energy market. At En-Pro, we're here to provide insights that support informed decision-making and help you stay ahead in a dynamic market. As Alberta continues to implement these changes, here’s an update o...

Oct 07, 2024 • < 1 min read

Roger Mcknight, Chief Petroleum Analyst is quoted by news outlets on October 4, 2024. Gas prices are set to rise Saturday October 5, by 4 cents. “Prices are increasing based on speculation the ME conflict will spread to involve other parties. 40% of global crude flows through the strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran." www.insauga.com ottawa.citynews.ca www.durhamradionews.com

Sep 27, 2024 • 4 min read

Ontario's energy landscape is constantly evolving, and businesses are faced with new opportunities and challenges in managing their energy expenses. At En-Pro, we specialize in helping companies understand these changes and how they impact their energy strategies. As your trusted energy consultants, we're here to provide insights that support informed decision-making and help you stay ahead in a dynamic market. As we move into winter 2024, Western Canadian natural gas producers are cautiously o...

Sep 26, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Today’s consumer energy prices, especially those of the fossil fuel variety, are a confusing matrix of variables that change with annoying regularity. So, where are prices going and why? Let’s dissect fact from fiction. FACT: All crude oil and refined product markets are undersupplied. The ...

Sep 23, 2024 • 4 min read

Just weeks into Stephen Lecce’s new role as Ontario’s energy chief, a controversial twist to the province’s power plan is sparking debate—natural gas is back on the table. As part of the long-term planning of the Ontario electricity grid, the IESO procures new energy sources through several phases of requests for proposals. The first RFP period (“LT1”) closed at the end of last year, and the IESO announced the procurement of 10 battery energy storage ...

Sep 19, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Although some participants may not believe it, there is a finish line to every marathon race in the oil industry. The Canadian energy sector has endured garage sale prices for their abundant crude oil, much to the delight of what was once our only export and “relief valve” for this valuable com...

Sep 18, 2024 • 2 min read

Ontario's energy landscape continues to evolve with new initiatives designed to give businesses more control over their electricity costs. At En-Pro, we’re here to help you navigate these changes and understand their impact on your energy strategies. In an effort to improve demand management and system efficiency, Ontario has launched the Class B Dynamic Pricing Pilots for non-RPP (Regulated Price Plan) consumers. This initiative targets small and medium-sized businesses—including c...

Sep 12, 2024 • 1 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Although the hurricane season is just warming up, the fossil fueled gasoline and diesel season is cooling down – and that’s good news for consumers. U.S. supply and demand figures don’t really figure into the near-term pricing forecasts. The latest numbers show inventories of the th...

Sep 05, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The energy pricing circus keeps going and consumers in the audiences are loving it. That’s because the price of admission keeps going down. And there’s little reason for fossil fuel prices to increase. Why? There are many reasons – both domestic and foreign – here are just a few: ...

Sep 04, 2024 • 2 min read

Canada's energy landscape is rapidly evolving, with significant developments in natural gas storage and pricing impacting the broader energy market. At En-Pro, we're committed to helping you navigate these changes and understand how they can influence your business. Record high Canadian natural gas storage inventories have pushed AECO spot market prices for August to summer lows, averaging only C$0.60/GJ for the month through August 29th. Monthly average AECO prices have remained below C$1/GJ s...

Sep 04, 2024 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst at En-Pro, has been quoted in two CityNews articles regarding long weekend pump prices. Read more here: https://ottawa.citynews.ca/2024/08/29/ottawa-gas-prices-labour-day/ https://toronto.citynews.ca/2024/08/29/toronto-gta-gas-prices-labour-day/

Aug 30, 2024 • 3 min read

Ontario’s energy sector is once again on the brink of significant change, with Bruce Power's recently announced proposal for a new nuclear generating station, "Bruce C," adding to the momentum. As energy consultants, we at En-Pro are committed to helping you navigate these developments and understand their potential impact on your energy strategies. It may seem like Ontario’s energy sector has been through significant changes already, with major nuclear refurbishments and the expans...

Aug 29, 2024 • 3 min read

Watch Roger McKnight tomorrow – Friday August 30 at 3:40 p.m. on BNN/Bloomberg’s Commodities for a Canada-wide picture of crude oil and gas prices. The interview will re-air over the weekend or can be watched online at: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/the-close/2024/08/30/gasoline-outlook-for-the-long-weekend/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ These are the musings and opinions of our self-p...

Aug 22, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The Canadian government says regulations are necessary to combat climate change, yet industry experts say, “in reality, they will impose significant costs on Canadians without yielding any significant environmental benefits.” Is this proposed policy just another, “we’ll show the wo...

Aug 21, 2024 • 3 min read

Alberta is positioning itself as a key player in the digital economy, focusing on becoming a hub for data centers and tech innovation. As developments in this sector continue, Alberta’s energy landscape stands to undergo significant transformation. At En-Pro, we’re here to keep you informed and ready for how these shifts could impact your energy decisions and business strategies. Leveraging its abundant natural gas resources and competitive energy prices, Alberta is attracting major...

Aug 15, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Stuck between a possible war in the Middle East, along with a war premium that would be added to its cost if it happens, counterbalanced by an obvious drag in consumer demand – the only word I can use to describe it is, uncertainty. Add to this to all the confusion in the trading ranks, which could ...

Aug 09, 2024 • 2 min read

The Ontario government recently announced Enbridge has begun construction on the Panhandle Regional Expansion Project to increase the capacity of the Panhandle Transmission System in Southwestern Ontario. The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) issued its Decision and Order, granting leave to construct the project on May 14, 2024, with a targeted in-service date of November 1, 2024. Additional construction related to the project will be completed in 2025. The project is a $358 million investment in the ...

Aug 08, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Depends on how you look at it, I guess. Or is it all just a guessing game? There is a lot of that going on when the ‘fossil fueled economic futurists’ get together. It also depends on how Iran responds to Israel after the assassination of Hamas's political leader on Iranian soil. An...

Aug 08, 2024 • 4 min read

Ontario's energy landscape is rapidly evolving, with two active proposals for hydroelectric pumped storage facilities currently under consideration. These projects have the potential to expand the province's energy storage capabilities and contribute to a more sustainable future. As experts in the energy sector, we at En-Pro are here to help you navigate these changes and understand how they can impact your energy strategies. · The first facility, prop...

Aug 01, 2024 • 1 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. All dressed up but nowhere to go. That’s the current image I have of the refining industry. One would think that the current U.S. inventory report wouldn’t be cause for alarm for the fleet of U.S refineries – crude inventories have been falling for five consecutive weeks now, so yo...

Jul 25, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Can ‘The Little Economic Engine that Could’ finally see the top of the mountain? Or does it need more help? That’s my metaphoric way of describing the rather listless consumer demand for refined products that may spur on refiners to reassess their operational efficiencies. But this doesn...

Jul 24, 2024 • 2 min read

Ontario's electricity grid is set for further transformation as the provincial government explores reducing electricity rates for public electric vehicle (EV) chargers. With the rising popularity of EVs, ensuring affordable charging infrastructure is crucial. This initiative aims to support the province's growing EV market and foster a sustainable transportation future. At En-Pro, we understand the complexities of the evolving energy landscape. Our team of experts is here to help you navigate th...

Jul 16, 2024 • 3 min read

As Ontario undergoes a significant energy transition, staying informed and prepared is more critical than ever. The province is making strides with new projects and investments aimed at meeting growing electricity demand and supporting a shift toward cleaner energy. At En-Pro, we're dedicated to guiding you through these changes. Whether you're an existing customer, or looking to join us, our expertise can help you navigate Ontario's evolving energy landscape effectively. It may seem like Ontar...

Jul 12, 2024 • 4 min read

Navigating the complexities of the energy transition can be daunting, but we're here to help. At En-Pro, we provide expert guidance and support to ensure your energy strategies are aligned with the latest developments and opportunities. Whether you're an existing customer or new to our services, our team is ready to assist you through these transformative times. Alberta's recent milestone in ending coal-fired electricity generation is a significant step forward in the province's journey toward a...

Jul 11, 2024 • 1 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Is the annual driving season finally going to shift into drive? It seems that way, but for how long? Many experts called for a return to robust consumer gasoline demand, saying we’d be back to pre-pandemic levels this summer. That’s been slow to come due to higher crude and pump prices, which ...

Jul 04, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Here we are, smack dab in the middle of the dog days of summer, although the fossil fuel industry is far from dozing off in the shade. And when we look at the latest U.S. inventory report, we can see why. The draw on crude oil was an abrupt eye opener as inventory fell by a little over 12 million barrels....

Jun 28, 2024 • 3 min read

As the Government of Canada takes bold steps toward a sustainable future, now is the perfect time to leverage new opportunities for your business. On June 21, 2024, the passing of the first four Clean Economy Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) into law marks a pivotal moment. These incentives are designed to attract investment and propel Canada toward net-zero emissions by 2050. Navigating these changes can be complex, but we're here to help you maximize these opportunities and ensure your business t...

Jun 27, 2024 • 1 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. When it comes to near-term pricing for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, consumers should feel like they are running the yellow light. Making it safely through the intersection depends on traffic coming the other way. It’s easy to get confused. Confusion is the state of the current supply and demand i...

Jun 25, 2024 • 2 min read

Are you ready to navigate the dynamic changes in Alberta’s electricity market? With power prices plummeting and significant shifts on the horizon, now is the time to ensure your business is prepared. As industry experts, En-Pro is here to guide both new and existing customers through these transitions. Whether you’re looking to safeguard your expense budget or adapt to the evolving landscape, our team is ready to help. Contact us today to leverage our expertise and secure your energy...

Jun 21, 2024 • 4 min read

In our previous post from June 4th, we discussed the price divergence trend that showed up this spring between eastern Canada’s Dawn market hub and the Henry Hub. This divergence stems from a North American supply glut, which has had a more significant impact on markets outside the US southeast and Louisiana’s Henry Hub. The latter markets are influenced by Henry Hub’s position as the gateway to global LNG markets and the southeastern market’s (largely Florida) growing de...

Jun 18, 2024 • 3 min read

The Canadian oil and gas industry is at a crossroads as it confronts the dual challenges of contributing to the national economy and reducing its environmental footprint. The federal government's proposed emissions cap has sparked a heated debate between industry stakeholders and environmental advocates. In this blog, we’ll examine the potential economic impact of the emissions cap. The Proposed Emissions Cap The Canadian government has proposed an emissions cap for the oil and gas secto...

Jun 17, 2024 • 2 min read

The Ford government has appointed Stephen Lecce as the new energy minister for Ontario. The position is now called the Minister of Energy and Electrification, indicating the need to address the rising electricity demand in the province as people switch to electric alternatives for their vehicles and home heating. Lecce’s first act in the new position has been to state his support for natural gas. When discussing how Ontario will use nuclear, renewables, and natural gas to increase energy c...

Jun 13, 2024 • 1 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The only phrase I can use to encapsulate the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) supply and demand data is that we’re currently in, "suspended animation." The picture is blurry and there’s way too much static. On the supply side, we have been stuck in neutral for the last month. Wit...

Jun 12, 2024 • 3 min read

As Alberta looks to rebrand their default electricity rate, it’s crucial for consumers to be strategic in choosing the right supplier, as failing to conduct proper due diligence could result in being locked into poorly performing long-term contracts. The "Rate of Last Resort" may lead to less favorable supply options, making it more important than ever to stay informed and make wise choices. At En-Pro, we’re here to help you navigate these changes and secure the best possible energy ...

Jun 06, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. What I am referring to are the OPEC mind-rumblings about their decision last year to cut production by 2.2 million bpd because they felt that prices at the time were too low. So, the simple solution they came up with was to slow down the flow and get the price up. That was their Plan A, but it may be time...

Jun 04, 2024 • 2 min read

North America is presently swimming in domestic gas supply, with inventories from the Pacific to the Atlantic and from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico being exceptionally high for this time of year. As a result of these bearish conditions, we saw extreme price weakness from mid-February to mid-May. Prices, however, have more recently shown signs of life, but the increase in prices at most of North America’s domestic hubs has been more muted than the rally at Henry Hub. The disconne...

May 30, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Questions like… Will refinery runs that are now at a two-year low of 80%, recover in time for the anticipated onslaught of increasing demand? Is demand the problem? Or is it the ability of refiners to fill the supply tanks and keep them filled? I think it’s a little bit of all the ab...

May 29, 2024 • 3 min read

The IESO recently offered contracts to 10 new energy storage projects that will be built across Ontario (blog post). These projects will provide nearly 1,800 MW of electricity capacity to Ontarians when they come online between 2026 and 2028. They were part of the IESO’s most recent Request for Proposals (RFP), which ended last December. Many proposals for new energy plants were submitted throughout the fall of 2023 to meet the RFP deadline. Before they could be considered by the IESO for ...

May 29, 2024 • 2 min read

The Ontario Government and Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) have completed the largest battery storage procurement in Canada’s history, securing a total of 2,195 megawatts (MW) of capacity. The capacity includes 1,784 MW of clean energy storage from ten storage facilities, varying in size from 9 to 390 MW. The Skyview 2 Battery Energy Storage System in the Township of Edwardsburgh Cardinal, Ontario will be the largest single storage facility in C...

May 23, 2024 • 3 min read

Starting July 1, 2024, electricity rates in Newfoundland and Labrador are set to rise by 10.5%. This increase, announced by Newfoundland Power, reflects ongoing challenges in managing electricity supply costs. Despite existing rate mitigation measures, the province faces significant financial pressures due to higher fuel prices and the costs associated with maintaining a reliable power supply. Background on the Rate Increase Newfoundland Power has highlighted that the upcoming rate hike is lar...

May 17, 2024 • 2 min read

The EIA reported an estimated 70 Bcf injection into working underground natural gas storage for the week ending May 10, 2024. This injection came in about 8% under analysts’ expectations and 25% under last year’s injection at the same time. At 2,633 Bcf, US storage levels are now 19% above last year and 31% above the 5-year average. Just to review, when storage levels are at 4,000 Bcf, they are considered to be “full”; last year in late November they reached 3,836 Bcf. An...

May 16, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. “Are we there yet?” A familiar refrain as we approach the on-ramp to the transfer from spring to summer. Answer: Not quite. A few detours up ahead. “Can we afford the price of gasoline or diesel for this trip?” Answer: So far, so good. The supply versus demand map is turning th...

May 14, 2024 • 2 min read

The Ontario Ministry of Energy has released a proposal on amendments to Ontario Regulation 429/04, allowing qualifying Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI) market participants, referred to as Class A customers, to offset their facility’s demand through Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with non-emitting generators that are not connected behind the facility's meter. The proposal aims to encourage the growth of new clean electricity generation in the province and create more com...

May 09, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. At this time of year, the question I am most often asked is, “what will happen to pump prices this summer?” Well, that depends on how you interpret the hard supply and demand data and balance it against the geopolitical ‘rumour and innuendo mill’ as opined by the never-take-a-breat...

May 09, 2024 • 2 min read

Ontario's electricity landscape is set for significant changes in the coming half-decade. On March 28th, the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) released its 2024 Annual Planning Outlook Report. Let’s dive into the key points: Increasing Demand On average, demand for electricity in Ontario is expected to increase by 2% per year due to economic growth, population expansion, and the adoption of electric vehicles. Large industries like mining and steel are also shifting towards e...

May 07, 2024 • 2 min read

In January 2024, President Biden made an announcement, putting a pause on further LNG approvals. More alarming interpretations put it this way: Biden is banning any more LNG projects from ever being approved. We’ve seen recent news articles[1] touting Biden is keeping cleanly produced American natural gas from getting to customers who will otherwise be buying it from countries who aren't as conscientious about taking care of the environment! What is he thinking?! This may be a nothing bur...

May 06, 2024 • < 1 min read

Read En-Pro’s Roger McKnight at MSN.com Will summer gas prices stop consumers from hitting the road?

May 03, 2024 • 2 min read

The Ontario government has announced a plan to invest $1 billion in refurbishing the province's hydroelectric stations, specifically the Sir Adam Beck Complex at Niagara Falls. The historic facility of Sir Adam Beck, standing for over a century, continues to serve as a steadfast provider of clean energy, generating approximately 12,300 gigawatt-hours of electricity each year. This accounts for roughly nine percent of Ontario's total power production. This project is expected to secure up to 1,70...

May 02, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Give it a minute, it will change. I’m not talking about the weather but about the wholesale rack and retail pump prices of gasoline and diesel. And I’m not alone here. Refiners also appear to be scratching their collective heads. Crude inventories increased by more than 7 million barrels this...

Apr 25, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The Canadian oil sector has been in a lull so long it’s forgotten what a storm is. The lull I’m referring to has forced ‘garage sale prices’ that western producers have been forced to accept for their Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude. And why is that? Alberta crude is virtuall...

Apr 24, 2024 • 3 min read

Ontario’s Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI) is a demand response program which provides a strong incentive for large electricity consumers to reduce their peak electricity usage and shift more of their electricity consumption to off-peak hours. This offers opportunities for customers that are eligible and participate in the ICI program, referred to as Class A customers, to manage their Global Adjustment (GA) costs based on their peak demand factor (PDF). Ontario’s Ind...

Apr 18, 2024 • 2 min read

Alberta is embarking on an innovative venture into nuclear energy to tackle its power grid challenges and emission reduction objectives. Recent collaborations and investments highlight the province's commitment to exploring advanced small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) as a potential solution. X-energy and TransAlta have partnered to study the deployment of advanced SMRs in Alberta, supported by the Emissions Reduction Alberta award. This partnership signifies a strategic shift toward sustaina...

Apr 18, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Forecasting near term gasoline and diesel prices has become a hold ‘em or fold ‘em poker call. Or maybe it’s a simpler game of heads or tails? Will prices go up or down or even sideways? Pick a card any card. When we throw all the ingredients into the pricing soup mix, it gets complicat...

Apr 16, 2024 • 2 min read

Ten years ago, Ontario became the first jurisdiction in North America to phase out coal-fired power plants, marking a pivotal moment in our energy history. This milestone reflects Ontario's commitment to cleaner energy and combating climate change. As the province celebrates a decade without coal, it highlights its dedication to sustainability and innovation. Looking ahead, Ontario's electricity landscape is poised for further transformation, with several key factors shaping its future energy mi...

Apr 11, 2024 • 3 min read

Once again, Alberta faced significant challenges in its electricity grid operations, marked by its second round of Level 3 Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA 3) of 2024 issued by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) on April 3rd and 5th. The first round had been issued from January 12th to 15th. An alert is classified as “EEA 3” when the AESO is unable to meet minimum contingency reserve requirements, which are used to maintain the balance of supply and demand when an unexpected sys...

Apr 09, 2024 • 3 min read

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported the United States was the world's largest exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG) in 2023. US LNG exports have increased ~12% (1.3 Bcf/d) to an average of 11.9 Bcf/day in 2023 compared to 2022. The US has exceeded the two largest LNG exporters, Australia and Qatar, with LNG exports for both averaging 10.1 to 10.5 Bcf/d between 2020 and 2023. The Shell LNG Outlook 2024 annual report states LNG will play an important role in global g...

Apr 05, 2024 • 2 min read

As the world prepares for a solar eclipse, energy experts are analyzing its effects on grid stability. With solar power playing an increasingly significant role in our electricity supply, understanding the energy dynamics of solar eclipses is necessary for ensuring the reliability of our grids. According to the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), the grid is ready to handle the challenges. During the eclipse, the IESO expects a temporary reduction in solar generation, requiring othe...

Apr 04, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. What’s in store for us at the pumps with the summer driving season just around the corner? And how expensive will it be to get to that store on the corner? The current supply situation is not encouraging. The latest U.S. inventory report shows large draws in levels of both gasoline and diesel...

Apr 03, 2024 • 2 min read

In November 2022, Manitoba Hydro’s natural gas sales point moved from the Empress market hub for gas delivery, located at the AB/SK border, to the AECO market hub, situated within Alberta’s natural gas sales and delivery network. This shift has renewed the opportunity for Manitoba gas supply buyers to competitively procure natural gas supply in the retail arena. How so? The simple explanation is that the Empress market had become a low liquidity market while the AECO market has muc...

Apr 02, 2024 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst at En-Pro, is quoted in a recent article by City News as the price of gas at the pumps increased to 162.9 cents/litre April 1st. Read the article here.

Mar 28, 2024 • 2 min read

In recent announcements, Qatar has revealed plans to significantly increase its natural gas production, a move that is expected to have ripple effects across global energy markets. With Qatar's mega-field expansion project set to boost production by 85 percent, questions arise regarding how North America will react and compete in the face of potential downward pressure on worldwide prices. Qatar, a key player in the global natural gas market, holds the world's third-largest proven natural gas r...

Mar 28, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. And here comes the parade! What parade you ask? Of course it’s Easter don’t you know? No, I don’t mean that kind of parade, I mean the ‘Procession of taxes parade!” As we are all painfully aware of, the federally mandated carbon tax is set to increase on Easter Monday, April ...

Mar 26, 2024 • 2 min read

In a bid to address concerns over high and volatile electricity prices, Alberta's government is implementing regulatory changes aimed at improving the rules around economic and physical withholding. These changes, set to come into effect on July 1, 2024, are expected to encourage more competition, enhance reliability, and ultimately make utility bills more affordable for Albertans. The urgency of this issue cannot be overstated. In an energy-only market like Alberta's, power generators offer th...

Mar 21, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Is it in our nature to ignore warning signs? We’re so used to shrugging off the incessant horn honking of that empty car in the parking lot. We look at the “service engine” light as an attack on our texting time. The reaction to the “low tire” pressure flashing beacon we c...

Mar 20, 2024 • 3 min read

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) is redesigning the Ontario electricity market through the Market Renewal Program (MRP). The initiative aims to address inefficiencies in Ontario’s current electricity market and improve how electricity is supplied, scheduled, and priced to meet Ontario's needs at the lowest cost. The existing Ontario wholesale market was introduced in 2002 and, while meeting Ontario’s reliability needs, has remained largely unchanged. The growth of ...

Mar 19, 2024 • 3 min read

In recent weeks, the Canadian federal government has announced several new investments and initiatives focused on providing Canadians with reliable, affordable and environmentally friendly energy. Some of the major projects include: Expanding Access to Renewable Energy in Ontario $16.7 million is committed to directly help Ontario's electricity grid operator expand access to renewable energy sources and manage new cutting-edge battery storage technology that will enable greater utiliz...

Mar 19, 2024 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst at En-Pro, has been quoted in a recent article by Yahoo Finance and The Canadian Press, as a media trusted expert. Click here to read the article as well as the associated blog post.

Mar 18, 2024 • 2 min read

The pricing concept known as “basis” in natural gas markets refers to the price differential between the market hub of interest and the Henry Hub market. The Henry Hub serves as the pricing benchmark for North American natural gas due to its connectivity with major long-distance transmission pipelines, intrastate pipelines, and its proximity to natural gas storage and production-rich regions throughout Texas, Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico. Local markets in the US often price their...

Mar 14, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. As March break comes to an end, so do any breaks the consumer will get on gasoline and diesel prices. The list of reasons is long. On the supply side, inventories of crude and all refined products are down significantly with diesel once again the leading concern because it is down 10% versus the 5-year av...

Mar 12, 2024 • 5 min read

As an electricity customer in Ontario, if you are a resident, small business or farm, by default, you pay Regulated Rates. The three regulated rate pricing models have rates that are set by the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) each November and remain static for one year. They are 1) Time-of-Use (TOU); 2) Tiered; and 3) Ultra-Low Overnight (ULO). Current rates can be found here. A multi-unit residence is also classified as a medium or large business and, as such, may choose between Market Pricing (th...

Mar 07, 2024 • 3 min read

Building upon our blog post from last month, we want to dive deeper into the unfolding consequences of the 7-month moratorium imposed by the Alberta government in late 2023. As previously discussed, the recent moratorium has added a layer of complexity and uncertainty to the ongoing narrative. In this follow-up post, we will examine the government's decision and its repercussions in light of recent policy changes outlined in the Alberta Utilities Commission's (AUC) Module A Report. A subsequent ...

Mar 07, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. For now, all is quiet on the fossil fuel front, but keep your head down because once politics gets involved, things get noisy. The broad supply/demand picture is still stuck on freeze frame as demand is currently at the mercy of interest rates. So, where is demand now, and where is it headed? If interest...

Mar 06, 2024 • 3 min read

The Canadian federal carbon tax has a direct impact on your natural gas costs, significantly contributing to your natural gas budget. As of April 1, 2019, the carbon tax imposes a charge on the carbon content of natural gas and has been increasing annually, set to increase to $170 per tonne in 2030. What is the Carbon Tax? The carbon tax in Canada was implemented through the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act. It is a levy applied to fossil fuels depending on how much ...

Feb 29, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. If it isn’t what it seems, then maybe it just isn’t. Here’s my personal snapshot of the latest U.S. fossil fuel supply/demand picture as contained in the current Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. Crude inventories increased for the fifth week in a row, this time by 4.2 million barr...

Feb 28, 2024 • 2 min read

On January 30th, the Ontario Minister of Energy announced that the provincial government is going ahead with full refurbishment of the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station. The refurbishment is expected to be completed in the mid-2030s, at which point the reactors will last for another 30 years. This refurbishment is important because Ontario's electricity demand is expected to increase by 27% between 2024 and 2035. The amount of energy required by transportation will increase several t...

Feb 27, 2024 • 2 min read

The Mountain Valley Pipeline is a 304 mile stretch of pipeline that will flow southbound gas from Wetzel County, West Virginia (just south of the northern West Virginia panhandle) to southern Virginia with a capacity of 2 Bcf/d; it is slated to begin operations in Q2 2024. What markets will this pipeline serve? Will it allow northeastern US production growth and/or will it have any notable impact on market prices? Currently, the Mountain Valley Pipeline’s only connection to the Sout...

Feb 22, 2024 • 1 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The crude oil race is on – but there are questions at the starting line for both the gasoline and diesel consumer. Questions like: Will refinery runs, that are now at a two-year low of 80%, recover in time for the anticipated onslaught of increasing demand? Is demand the problem? Or is it the...

Feb 21, 2024 • 3 min read

In recent years, Alberta has been at the forefront of Canada's energy discussions, particularly concerning the transition to renewable sources. However, there is uncertainty as the government implemented a moratorium on new renewable energy projects (as discussed in our blog post from August 2023). The decision has sparked debates among industry experts, environmentalists, and policymakers, raising questions about the future of Alberta's energy landscape. The Current State of Renewable Energy i...

Feb 15, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Beware the mouse that’s about to roar! The latest U.S. inventory report is encouraging for consumers as it states crude oil levels jumped by 12 million barrels. But that’s just the book cover. What’s the story? The increase in crude was inevitable when the national average refinery run r...

Feb 15, 2024 • 2 min read

Natural gas prices in North America continue to plunge as above-normal temperatures and strong natural gas production persist. Henry Hub natural gas futures have dropped to the lowest prompt-month settlement since September 2020 this past week! Other than the short-lived Arctic freeze in mid-January, it has been a mild winter overall. Increased natural gas production, robust storage inventory levels, reduced demand, and declining liquified natural gas (LNG) exports in January have contributed to...

Feb 13, 2024 • 3 min read

Learn about the interesting future of two kinds of energy supply in Ontario, which are not used or discussed as much as other types but will play an important role in the electricity grid: renewable energy and battery energy storage systems. Everyone knows about renewable energy sources: wind turbines and solar panels installed across the province to capture energy provided by nature. A newer and lesser-known technology is battery energy storage systems, or BESS. These systems use larg...

Feb 12, 2024 • 1 min read

Pump prices will be driven by a slowdown in refining activity due partially to planned, semi seasonal maintenance that has been put on the back shelf for over two years, and so-called unplanned maintenance, which is another way of saying a refinery breakdown. And, that is what is happening with the shutdown of the largest facility in the Midwest (BP’s 440,000 bpd), which may put it out of service for four to five weeks just as we head into the driving season. With this temporary closure...

Feb 08, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Upsetting the balance can be upsetting. The fossil fuel industry is a category in the energy portfolio that consumers need, but politicians want, and need, to vilify. So, things are out of balance. Until such time as there is an affordable and reliable alternative, then the consumer will be dependent on...

Feb 08, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The current fossil fuel roadmap looks like a worry-free trip over the short-term, except for a few tricky detours along the way. Gasoline and diesel pump and rack prices should continue to float downward for a number of supply versus demand reasons. First, the U.S. Fed has indicated there will not be any reductio...

Feb 08, 2024 • 1 min read

The market price of electricity in Ontario was lower and more stable over the past week, thanks to milder weather and higher temperatures. Less electricity was required for uses like home heating, and the cost of supply was offset due to the sunny weather and increased use of solar power, which is very cheap for the electricity market to use. The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 4.3¢/kWh for the month of January, representing a 0.2¢/kWh or 4.6% decrea...

Feb 08, 2024 • 1 min read

The weighted average Power Pool price for January settled to $156.86/MWh. With last week’s month-to-date price of $188.32/MWh, this resulted in a decrease of $31.46/MWh or 16.7%. Over the last week, pricing dropped by a significant margin. From January 23rd through the end of the month, prices averaged $44.92/MWh. Even with all the suppressed pricing over the last week of the month, there were no hourly supply surplus periods, and the lowest hourly settled occurred on January 28th at 7am M...

Feb 08, 2024 • 2 min read

In Canada, AECO and Dawn spot market prices have returned to their pre-cold snap levels, with the month-end index averaging C$3.68/GJ and C$4.30/GJ at AECO and Dawn, respectively. The extreme cold in Western Canada led to production freeze-offs, soaring demand, and skyrocketing spot market prices for gas delivery between January 13-16th at both AECO and Dawn. Overall, it has been a mild winter, leaving storage levels elevated well above the five-year average. Point Logic reported a withdrawal of...

Jan 30, 2024 • 2 min read

In a recent development, the Public Utilities Board has granted interim approval to Centra Gas Manitoba Inc.'s application to reduce the Gas Commodity rate to $0.0857/m³, effective February 1, 2024. This decision, driven by a decrease in the market price of natural gas, is expected to result in a 5.7% annual bill decrease for typical residential customers. Understanding the Rate Adjustment The Gas Commodity rate is set to decrease from the current $0.1021/m³ to $0.0857/m³, refl...

Jan 29, 2024 • 2 min read

The Ontario government has launched a provincial Clean Energy Credit (CEC) Registry to provide businesses with a tool to meet environmental and sustainability goals. The voluntary registry, administered by the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), is a tracking system for the creation, transfer, and retirement of CECs in Ontario. What is a Clean Energy Credit (CEC)? · CECs are electronic certificates that represent one megawatt-hour (1 MWh) ...

Jan 29, 2024 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Jan 26, 2024 • 2 min read

Weather is one of most influential factors affecting electricity prices in Canada today. From one year to the next, weather trends can differ, causing electricity costs to fluctuate. The following graphs display how sensitive electricity prices in Alberta and Ontario have become to cold weather spells. ALBERTA Image by Author ONTARIO Image by Author Why do prices go up when it gets cold? Here is an overview of how cold weather leads to hig...

Jan 26, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. So, I’ve been asking myself a question lately: What do governments produce or manufacture? There are over 6,000 products produced from fossil fuels that consumers use daily, which makes me wonder… how does the Canadian government’s production line measure up? The answer I have come...

Jan 26, 2024 • 1 min read

There are several complex developments currently underway that will have big impacts on the future of Ontario’s electricity market. The Ontario Energy Minister is reportedly reviewing a proposal to refurbish four reactors at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, which would provide more stable, non-emitting energy generation starting in the mid-2030s, when electricity demand in Ontario is expected to rise quickly. It remains to be seen if the Minister will decide to take on the cost of...

Jan 26, 2024 • 1 min read

The weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently $188.32/MWh. With last week’s price of $223.68/MWh, this results in a decrease of $35.36/MWh or 15.8%. Pricing has become more stable, relative to what was experienced during the recent cold event in the province, as prices averaged $102.74/MWh over the past week. The highest daily peak price this past week was on January 20th, where it reached a high of $150.15/MWh. During this day, the province saw prices spike alongside the ...

Jan 26, 2024 • 2 min read

The EIA reported the third largest natural gas storage withdrawal ever recorded for the week ending January 19th. The 326 Bcf withdrawal was almost three times as high as last year’s at this time (110 Bcf) and 130% higher than the five-year average withdrawal of 142 Bcf. This whopper came to no surprise to the market, which was estimating a withdrawal of 324 to 328 Bcf. Up until the release of the 10:30 a.m. storage report, February prompt month futures at Henry Hub climbed up to US$2.88/M...

Jan 19, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Nobody wins, nobody loses. That’s my short form definition of a compromise. And that’s where we are, with the proviso that there is diminished political interference in the negotiations at the energy table. In the immediate term, the supply and demand picture favours the consumer and the economy in ...

Jan 19, 2024 • 1 min read

There are many nuclear projects currently underway in Ontario that will have significant long-term impacts on the availability and cost of electricity in this province. The refurbishments of the Bruce Power and Darlington Nuclear power stations, which will help to supply the growing electricity demand in Ontario with reliable and less-expensive energy, qualify as two of the top-5 biggest infrastructure projects in Canada for 2024. In addition to upgrading their existing facilities, OPG is adding...

Jan 19, 2024 • 2 min read

The weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently $223.68/MWh. Relative to last week’s monthly price of $79.47/MWh, this results in an increase of $144.21/MWh or 181%. Over the weekend, the province experienced increased levels of volatility due to the extreme cold weather event, with many parts of the province reaching below -30°C. Alberta’s record-breaking cold resulted in prices over the weekend settling to $686.15/MWh, $652.81/MWh and $714.81/MWh on the 12th, 13t...

Jan 19, 2024 • 3 min read

Extreme cold temperatures across the US Midwest and Canada have led to heating demand and power burn demand levels reaching near record highs. It is reported US gas demand spiked to a preliminary 167.8 Bcf/d on Tuesday, above the all-time high of 162.5 Bcf/d set in December 2022. Production freeze-offs, which occur when wells, pipes and other equipment freeze, caused US gas output to drop by 17.0 Bcf/d from January 8-16th to 90.6 Bcf/d. US heating demand is expected to be one of the tenth highes...

Jan 17, 2024 • 2 min read

In the tale of two Decembers, Alberta witnessed a dramatic shift in weather patterns and their profound impact on the province's electricity landscape. December 2022 unfolded with an unforgiving cold spell, setting records for both demand and prices, while December 2023 presented a different narrative, characterized by above-seasonal temperatures and an abundance of electricity. This stark contrast underscores the vulnerability of Alberta’s energy market to climatic fluctuations. As we del...

Jan 16, 2024 • 2 min read

The European Parliament will decide this month on a legislative package that, among other policies, would allow its member states to legally ban Russian and Belarussian natural gas imports, whether by pipeline or LNG carriers, by allowing nations to block targeted shippers from booking capacity on necessary infrastructure. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU has gone from managing the energy security threat in a desperate pricing landscape, to implementing policies that have reduc...

Jan 15, 2024 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Jan 12, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The latest U.S. inventory report tells me that the fossil-fueled energy pricing picture is truly fossilized, in other words, it’s stuck on a freeze-frame and there is little indication that a thaw is imminent. Crude oil levels increased by 1.3 million barrels, and now is 2% below the 5-year average. Consid...

Jan 12, 2024 • 1 min read

As winter weather sets in and temperatures across Ontario drop, electricity prices are beginning to rise. Heating homes in the winter requires a large supply of electricity, the quantity of which is getting larger every year in Ontario and slowly approaching the levels of summer air conditioning demand. Many households in Ontario have converted their home heating systems to electric heat pumps, in response to financial incentives and promises of lower utility costs. This transition increases the...

Jan 12, 2024 • 1 min read

The weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently $79.47/MWh. Relative to December’s month-end price of $52.67/MWh, this results in an increase of $26.80/MWh or 50.9%. Daily pricing in January has seen minimal volatility, with only one major spike occurring on the 7th, where pricing settled to $176.46/MWh. So far this month, there have been three separate days of sub-$50/MWh pricing, occurring on the 1st, 4th and 9th, with daily prices of $34.92/MWh, $40.91/MWh and $39.22/MWh,...

Jan 12, 2024 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures have rallied higher, pushing above US$3/MMBtu, following a bullish Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report. The EIA reported a withdrawal of 140 Bcf from storage, above market expectations of a 119 Bcf pull. Storage inventories are now 15% and 11.6% higher than year-ago and 5-year average levels, respectively. After a pullback of over 15 cents on Wednesday, cooler winter temperatures in the near-term are providing support to natural gas futures. Extre...

Jan 10, 2024 • 1 min read

Although there may have been some concerns with the drop of 5 million barrels in crude inventories, it was to be expected as refiners boosted their runs, which resulted in a 10-million-barrel increase in the levels of gasoline and distillates. In addition, there was an increase in crude being redirected to the SPR. All this may suggest that the refining industry is anticipating lower interest rates and lower inflation, which will boost consumer confidence and increase demand for all refined pro...

Jan 08, 2024 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Jan 05, 2024 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. As we open the book on 2024, let’s see if the storyline has, or will, change from the 2023 chapter. On the international front, and how events will affect crude oil pricing and its family of derivatives, nothing much will change over the short term, but it’s still a dangerous bouncing ball of co...

Jan 05, 2024 • 1 min read

In response to the Federal Government’s new electric vehicle regulations, there is much interest in the future of electricity supply and demand in Ontario. In the third quarter of 2023, 8.2% of new vehicles registered in Ontario were qualifying electric cars. Starting in 2026, auto manufacturers in Canada will be required to offer at least 20% electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Many communities across Ontario are looking to install more EV chargers in order to serve the new vehicles. ...

Jan 05, 2024 • 1 min read

The weighted average Power Pool price for December settled to $52.67/MWh. Relative to the previous week’s month-to-date price of $63.51/MWh, this resulted in a decrease of $10.84/MWh or 17.1%. Pricing for December came in much lower than expected, as market forwards prior to the start of the month were offered at over $128/MWh. The stark drop in price was attributed to consistent renewable generation, alongside elevated temperatures. Over the last week in December, renewable wind generatio...

Jan 05, 2024 • 2 min read

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a bearish withdrawal of only 14 Bcf from storage for the week ending December 29th, 2023. The pull was lower than market expectations of 39-44 Bcf and significantly lower than the five-year average withdrawal of 98 Bcf during the same week. It is reported that December 2023 was the warmest on record for some parts of the United States. Record-high natural gas production, outpacing natural gas consumption growth, has further contributed to...

Dec 21, 2023 • 1 min read

Strong efforts are being made to increase electrification in Ontario to reduce emissions. The federal government announced a large investment that will go to six cities in Ontario through the Community Efficiency Financing Initiative, which aims to help households switch to electric alternatives for heating and increase their energy efficiency by offering interest-free loans and other financial incentives. The government also announced new regulations that will soon require auto manufacturers an...

Dec 21, 2023 • 1 min read

The weighted average month-to-date Power Pool price for December is $63.51/MWh. The monthly price decreased $1.95/MWh or 3% relative to last week’s price of $65.46/MWh. Pricing over the past week has continued to be extremely low, especially for this time of the year when demand is typically elevated. December now has two of the Top 10 lowest daily prices of the year - December 13th and 20th settled at $23.83/MWh and $30.34/MWh, respectively. There were several supply surplus periods over ...

Dec 21, 2023 • 1 min read

As 2023 winds down, we’re reminded of how natural gas prices trended downward over the past year - a complete reversal from 2022. Year-to-date Dawn natural gas spot market prices are 60% lower than 2022, when prices averaged C$7.44/GJ. Key factors driving the suppressed North American natural gas prices in 2023 have been a mild 2022-2023 winter in both Europe and North America, record US gas production and an inventory surplus 8.5% above the five-year average. Reduced temperature forecasts...

Dec 21, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. It’s time to polish up the crystal ball, roll it out of the box, and come up with an estimate of where prices of crude, gasoline, and diesel will move in 2024. This is with the understanding that these are, in fact, moving targets but we know they all dance, at times, to the tunes of different drummers. On...

Dec 19, 2023 • 3 min read

The Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) oversees the province's wholesale electricity market, which includes the procurement of operating reserves. These reserves are essential to maintaining a stable and reliable power grid, ensuring that there is always enough electricity supply to meet demand. In this blog post, we’ll outline the basics of operating reserve procurement in Alberta's electricity market and the program carved out for smaller end users. To participate in the operat...

Dec 18, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Dec 15, 2023 • 2 min read

In the ever-evolving landscape of global energy markets, the Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s projections for 2024 offer a glimpse into the anticipated shifts that will shape the industry. From crude oil to natural gas, the forecasts paint a picture of changing dynamics. As these projections unfold, Canada braces for a notable 25% surge in carbon taxes, adding another layer of complexity to the energy equation. Based on the EIA forecast for 2024, here's what we can expect for eac...

Dec 15, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Whew! Well, that’s it for the fossil fuel industry. Done and dusted! That’s because after nearly 30 years, the world, at least according to the minutes of the Dubai COP28, says so. Ok, that’s not really an accurate summation of the agreement. But I find it difficult to imagine how you get 80,0...

Dec 15, 2023 • 1 min read

Ontario will be focusing on adding renewable energy generation to the grid in the coming years. The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has released a new report outlining their plan to address the growing electricity demand in Ontario, by procuring 5,000 MW of renewable energy supply to come online between 2029-2034. The cost of producing renewable energy has decreased over time, and wind and solar plants are now cheaper to build and operate than natural gas generators, which will le...

Dec 15, 2023 • 1 min read

The weighted average month-to-date Power Pool price for December is currently $65.46/MWh – a decrease of $3.89/MWh or 5.7% relative to last week’s price of $69.35/MWh. Volatility this month has remained minimal, with the highest daily settle occurring on December 8th, when pricing reached $125.65/MWh. Inclusive of this peak price, the weighted average Power Pool price over the past week was $62.12/MWh. Strong renewable generation has been one of the main contributors to suppressed pr...

Dec 15, 2023 • 1 min read

Warmer-than-expected weather has sent Henry Hub natural gas futures tumbling. Gas futures held near a six-month low on Wednesday, settling at US$2.335/MMBtu - a sharp contrast from a few weeks ago when prompt month futures were trading over US$3/MMBtu. Strong gas production and reduced heating demand has kept gas prices suppressed. In the December edition of their Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter...

Dec 11, 2023 • 1 min read

It’s a Humpty Dumpty moment. With pump and crude prices now in free fall it makes you wonder how much longer OPEC + will keep consumers off the hook. The problem OPEC has is that U.S. inventories of crude and gasoline continue to increase while demand for gasoline and especially jet fuel continues to drop off. There will come a point in the crude oil pricing timetable when the Saudis may just say, ‘that’s enough and cut back production to the bone.’ This, they ...

Dec 08, 2023 • 1 min read

The Ontario government mandates municipal approval for all energy projects, allowing local residents to veto proposals, which could potentially have a significant influence on the future of the province's energy supply. Recent instances include Loyalist Township rejecting a new natural gas-fired electricity plant and Thorold opposing a similar project in September. Napanee city council, on the other hand, endorsed a gas plant proposed by Atura Power, who offered the town annual payments for perm...

Dec 08, 2023 • 1 min read

The weighted average month-to-date Power Pool price for December is currently $69.35/MWh. Relative to November’s month-end price of $94.85/MWh, this is a decrease of $25.49/MWh or 26.9%. Pricing volatility has been relatively minor so far this month, as only a couple of days have experienced a surge in pricing, lasting just a few hours and doing little to the overall Power Pool price. The largest spike in pricing so far this month took place on December 6th between 2pm and 6pm MST, when pr...

Dec 08, 2023 • 2 min read

Forward term prices for most North American markets continued their downward trend this week, with Q1 2024 fixed price offers for Dawn supply bottoming out this morning near $3.20 C/GJ, on par with recent Dawn next-day gas index prices. The Q1 2024 offer for AECO gas supply dropped to near $2.00 C/GJ, also on par with the AECO market’s recent day gas prices. All of this is happening despite total demand for US natural gas supply averaging 5.8 Bcf/d (5%) higher for the year-over-year period...

Dec 07, 2023 • 1 min read

The 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) being held in Dubai, UAE started on November 30th and runs to December 12th, 2023. The UAE's focus areas for COP28 include fast-tracking the energy transition, fixing climate finance, and mobilizing action around a "major course correction" to accelerate emissions reductions while ensuring energy security. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), is the first CEO to serve as C...

Dec 06, 2023 • 3 min read

Ever since the Canadian government first announced the proposed Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) in July of 2023, there has been strong resistance and skepticism from Alberta, whose economy is heavily reliant on the energy sector. These regulations would force the entire country to achieve a net-zero electricity grid by 2035, with some time-limited exceptions (see the blog post Navigating Change: Unveiling Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations). In Alberta, members of provinc...

Dec 04, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Dec 01, 2023 • 4 min read

As we look at budgeting for natural gas heading into 2024, there are several factors impacting your natural gas costs. Prices can fluctuate at any given time with extreme weather events, supply and demand balance, as well as ongoing geopolitical issues. The good news for 2023 is natural gas market rates are down substantially from what you likely budgeted for this time last year. For 2024, natural gas spot market prices are expected to be lower this winter compared to last winter (Novem...

Dec 01, 2023 • 3 min read

Regulations in the electricity industry are essential for ensuring the safe and reliable delivery of electricity to consumers. The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) stands as an independent agency responsible for regulating the electricity sector in Ontario. The OEB sets rates for electricity consumers, monitors the reliability and quality of service provided by electricity distributors and transmitters, and ensures compliance with provincial energy policies. Clean Electricity Regulations (CE...

Dec 01, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. When is a push really a shove? The November 26 OPEC+ meeting – the purpose of which was to establish production targets for the cartel under the watchful eye (and direction) of the Saudis – was called off and postponed until today, November 30, 2023. Curiously, the initial invite to the meeting was t...

Dec 01, 2023 • 1 min read

The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.0¢/kWh so far for the month of November, no change over last week’s settle. Natural gas-burning supply increased by 4.3% (2756MW) over the course of this past week, as temperatures cooled and electric heating load began to kick in, while solar generation decreased (-5.9%, -44MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 7.0¢/kWh, November’s total market price is settling at 10.0¢/kWh as of to...

Dec 01, 2023 • 1 min read

The weighted average month-to-date Power Pool price for November is currently $88.67/MWh, a week-over-week increase of $6.94/MWh or 8.5%. This is the first weekly pricing increase we’ve seen this month, as pricing has steadily decreased throughout November. The bump in price is due to a daily price of $359.90/MWh on the 23rd, tied to extremely minimal levels of renewable generation, where wind generation assets were only supplying 1-3% of their maximum capacity to the provincial grid. As a...

Dec 01, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for January are still holding below US$3/MMBtu after another bearish U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report. The EIA reported an injection of 10 Bcf into storage, above market expectations of a 7 Bcf withdrawal, and significantly above the five-year average pull of 44 Bcf. Warmer-than-normal temperatures have kept heating demand low and record natural gas production, reaching levels around 106 Bcf/d, have increased the storage surplus. Storage i...

Nov 28, 2023 • 2 min read

In a notable shift toward sustainable energy practices, Alberta witnessed a remarkable surge in wind generation throughout November, setting new records and reshaping the province's energy dynamics. According to the 2022 Annual Market Stats report by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), the maximum installed capacity for wind generation reached an impressive 4,348 MW. Based on the report, the highest average wind production was recorded in November 2020, November 2021, and November 2022,...

Nov 24, 2023 • 3 min read

In a recent move that has stirred discussions across Ontario, the government has announced a significant 19% increase in regulated electricity rates (see our blog post Understanding Ontario’s new electricity rate changes). This adjustment, influenced by estimations of the next 12 months of electricity supply costs (HOEP) and global adjustment costs (GA), comes with nuanced reasons that shed light on the complex dynamics of the province's energy landscape. Understanding the Rate In...

Nov 24, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Did someone hit the pause button on the Fossil Fuel Channel because the picture’s frozen and there’s no sound! Not only this, but the short-to-medium-term price outlook has been complicated by a lack of complicated stats! On the crude oil supply side, the geopolitical fear factor has been lowered from...

Nov 24, 2023 • 1 min read

There is lots of interest in building battery energy storage systems in cities around Ontario. Two energy companies are looking at locations in Hamilton that could add up to 400 MW of capacity to the area. In Peterborough, there are three battery storage plants currently in early proposal stages, including two companies wanting to add 300 MW of capacity, and the local power utility wants to open a 50 MW battery storage project on the same site as their existing 10 MW solar farm. Battery energy s...

Nov 24, 2023 • 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price for November is currently $81.73/MWh, a decrease of $5.08/MWh or 5.9% relative to last week’s monthly price of $86.81/MWh. Over the past week, we experienced one Supply Surplus period on November 21st at 4am MST when pricing settled to $0.00/MWh; pricing for the day settled to $35.38/MWh. Alberta typically experiences lower demand levels overnight, which results in lower hourly settles. Coupled with lower demand, there was an abundance of...

Nov 24, 2023 • 2 min read

With the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday week, Henry Hub natural gas futures for December settled at US$2.897/MMBtu at yesterday's close. Prices have dropped to their lowest levels in over a month, as record high natural gas production in November and robust storage levels has reduced the risk of winter price spikes. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a withdrawal of 7 Bcf from storage, lower than market expectations but well above the withdrawal of 60 Bcf during the same week last y...

Nov 20, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Nov 17, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. This week’s report is all about the question of whether we’ve weathered the fossil fuel storm, and which direction the boat it’s sailing in will be pushed to next, and what exactly will be pushing it! Whichever way the wind blows, I guess. That’s a circumlocutionary way of asking, &ldquo...

Nov 17, 2023 • 1 min read

Ontario Power Generation has made a proposal to open a new gas-fired electricity generator in Napanee but has been met with controversy over environmental concerns and the strict restrictions of the Federal Government’s Clean Electricity Regulations coming into effect in 2035, which may force the plant to close after only a decade of operation. Natural gas generators are expensive to operate and cause the hourly price to increase when they are in use, but they serve a very important functi...

Nov 17, 2023 • 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price for November is currently $86.81/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $97.02/MWh, this results in a decrease of $10.21/MWh or 10.5%. Volatility this month has been kept to a minimum due to the large volume of wind generation being produced. This resulted in several daily settles under $50/MWh, including the 10th, 11th and 13th, where prices settled to $37.34/MWh, $34.32/MWh and $28.89/MWh, respectively. Hourly demands are averaging 6.5% ...

Nov 17, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures have fallen over 10 cents from yesterday's close of US$3.19/MMBtu, following a bearish Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report. The EIA did not report last week, due to a system update, publishing two weeks of gas storage data with a withdrawal of 6 Bcf for the week ending November 3rd, followed by a net increase of 60 Bcf for the week ending November 10th. Storage inventories are now 5.4% and 5.6% higher than year-ago and 5-year average levels, respe...

Nov 13, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Nov 13, 2023 • 4 min read

In a strategic move set to reshape its energy portfolio, TransAlta recently announced the acquisition of Heartland Generation's assets from Energy Capital Partners for a substantial $658 million. This acquisition, outlined in a comprehensive press release, underscores TransAlta's commitment to diversifying its energy assets and embracing a forward-looking approach to the evolving energy landscape. In this blog post, we'll explore the key details surrounding this acquisition, its implications, an...

Nov 10, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Has the fossil fuel ship lost its rudder? Certainly, charting its pricing course this week will be difficult because I think someone’s dog ate this week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) supply and demand report. Now we are left to our own guesstimates as to what forces are driving price...

Nov 10, 2023 • 1 min read

The Ministry of Energy has announced a proposed change to the Industrial Conservation Initiative that would allow participants to reduce their Global Adjustment costs by offsetting their demand through power purchase agreements (PPAs) with renewable generation facilities. This proposal is in early stages and is currently considering feedback and consultations from stakeholders. New funding has been announced for several projects in Indigenous communities in Bay of Quinte, including renewable ge...

Nov 10, 2023 • 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price for November is currently $97.02/MWh, which represents a decrease of $4.67/MWh or 5% relative to October’s monthly settled price of $101.69/MWh. Pricing peaked on November 6th, averaging $196.93/MWh, with pool prices ranging from $34.89/MWh to $473.62/MW. Generator outages at Sheerness 1 and Battle River 4, along with minimal solar and wind generation, contributed to the increased market volatility. Prices reached a low of $18.39/MWh on N...

Nov 10, 2023 • 2 min read

Bearish weather reports for milder than normal temperatures through the third week in November continue to keep downward pressure on prices. Reduced heating demand and strong production should help maintain the storage surplus heading into the winter withdrawal season. Market analysts are forecasting US dry natural gas production to average ~105 Bcf/d during the second half of 2023, up nearly 2 Bcf/d from the first half of the year, and continue to average around 105 Bcf/d during the winter heat...

Nov 06, 2023 • 1 min read

“The continuing dire situation in Israel and Gaza still has the markets more than a bit jittery with crude prices moving up and down on breaking good or bad news. As there seems to be a smaller chance of a spill over that will draw other players into this conflict, prices have calmed with crude heading toward $80 /bbl. This is the break even point for the Saudis, so they may cut production to boost prices to their comfort level. But no one really knows. On the domestic front, interest ra...

Nov 03, 2023 • 1 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The only way to describe fossil fuel prices in this country is to picture a Conga Line of taxes, each holding on to the one in front of it wandering aimlessly without any direction. Then suddenly, one dancer trips and falls out of line, and the supposed ‘national’ carbon tax in Atlantic Canada drops ou...

Nov 03, 2023 • 1 min read

To meet Ontario’s rising electricity demand, more power supply projects are being started across the province. A new battery energy storage system has been proposed for the Ottawa area, that would add 230 MW/920 MWh to the grid by the target in-service date of 2026, and an environmental assessment is currently underway. Bruce Power is also going through the preliminary steps of adding a third set of generators to their power plant, which would be the first large-scale nuclear development i...

Nov 03, 2023 • 1 min read

October’s monthly price settled at $101.69/MWh. Compared to last week’s month-to-date price of $90.38/MWh, this represents an increase of $11.30/MWh or 12.5%. The price was pushed higher due to volatility on October 25th and 26th, the latter having a daily price of $369.17/MWh. Minimal solar and wind generation continued through the 27th, when the price recovered and dropped below $150/MWh. Calgary Energy Center returned to service on October 29th, while Genesee 1 was offline on the ...

Nov 03, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures jumped over 22-cents (6.65%) on Tuesday, to a nine-month high, to close at US$3.575/MMBtu, before reversing to a low of $3.401/MMBtu this morning. Natural gas prices continue to see-saw alongside shifting weather forecasts impacting heating demand. Markets are vulnerable to the smallest changes in demand and US liquified natural gas (LNG) exports. LNG exports rose to 13.7 Bcf/d so far in October, up from 12.6 Bcf/d in September, but still below April's record high o...

Oct 30, 2023 • < 1 min read

Mark Ljuckanov, energy analyst at En-Pro, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the Ontario Energy Board announcing that electricity prices under the Regulated Price Plan are going up for households, small businesses, and farms, starting November 1. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 30, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 27, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. My word of the week is... “maybe.” That’s because if readers are looking for a forecast, or concise opinion on which way the fossil fuel portion of the energy equation is tilting, then that's right the word to describe it. May go this way, may go that way, or maybe both ways! Looking at crude ...

Oct 27, 2023 • 1 min read

On October 19th, the Ontario Energy Board announced the new rates for the Regulated Price Plans that will be in effect for the next 12 months. The rates have been raised since the expected cost of supplying electricity to RPP consumers increased almost 20% compared to last year’s estimate. Starting November 1st, the Tiered regulated prices are 10.3¢/kWh for Tier 1 and 12.5¢/kWh for Tier 2. The Time-of-Use off-peak rate is 8.7¢/kWh, the mid-peak rate is 12.2¢/kWh, and th...

Oct 27, 2023 • 1 min read

Month-to-date, the weighted average Power Pool price for October is currently $90.38/MWh, an increase of $14.09/MWh or 18.5% relative to last week’s price of $76.29/MWh. The drastic increase in pricing was primarily attributed to the daily settle of $401.74/MWh on October 25th, as all other daily settles over the past week were less than $150/MWh and averaged $77.54/MWh. Pricing volatility on the 25th occurred due to extremely low levels of renewable (solar and wind) generation and outages...

Oct 27, 2023 • 2 min read

A bullish storage report has put upward pressure on the Henry Hub natural gas December contract, up over 10 cents from yesterday's close of US$3.376/MMBtu. Shifting weather patterns are a driving factor in the short-term as we head into the winter heating season. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a storage injection of 74 Bcf, below market analyst's expectations. Storage levels are now 9.2% above year-ago levels and, relative to the five-year average, 5.2% greater. Record n...

Oct 26, 2023 • 4 min read

The Ontario government has made changes to the regulated price plan and the Ontario Electricity Rebate (OER) that will impact residential consumers (see the associated BNN interview here). These changes aim to provide more transparency and affordability in electricity bills. Starting from November 1, 2023, the OER will increase from 11.7% to 19.3%. The OER is a rebate provided on the electricity bill of residential, small business, and farm consumers. As indicated by the Ontario Energy Board, a...

Oct 23, 2023 • 1 min read

Near term pump prices are in hover mode right now and there is little on the horizon to force prices up. With winter just around the corner, the same cannot be said for diesel and other members of the distillate family. Gasoline prices continue to fall as do the margins, which are down 83% since August. This causes a problem for refiners as diesel inventories are down, but demand is up. If more diesel is needed, then this produces more gasoline as well with rock bottom margins. The diesel marg...

Oct 23, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 23, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Borrowing from the title of a famous ‘Al Gorian’ 2006 documentary – another “inconvenient truth” is that fossil fuel data is becoming more inconvenient by the day. It is also “politically inconvenient” that many consumers still see fossil fuels as an inconvenient, yet esse...

Oct 20, 2023 • 1 min read

As of November 1, 2023, Ontario’s new Ultra-Low Overnight Price Plan will be available for customers to opt into at all electricity utilities across the province. The Ultra-Low Overnight (ULO) price plan was designed to benefit customers with high electricity demand during nighttime hours, offering a heavily discounted overnight rate in exchange for a greatly increased on-peak rate. Since it was first introduced in May, several utilities have made this plan available to their customers, in...

Oct 20, 2023 • 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price for October is currently $76.29/MWh. Relative to last week’s monthly price of $81.28/MWh, this results in a decrease of $4.99/MWh or 6.1%. Daily volatility has been minimal over the past week, with only one price spike of $144.85/MWh on October 16th. Excluding this peak, prices have remained below $75/MWh, which caused weekly pricing to average just $68.54/MWh. The province experienced its lowest daily settle for the week on the 17th, whe...

Oct 20, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures have fallen below US$3/MMBtu as record US production and mild weather forecasts through early November are expected to keep natural gas demand low. US gas output has increased to average 103.6 Bcf/d so far in October, up from 102.6 Bcf/d in September and above July's record high of 103.1 Bcf/d. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a storage injection of 97 Bcf, above market analysts’ expectations. We are heading into the winter heating season w...

Oct 16, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 13, 2023 • 3 min read

The Energy and Water Reporting Benchmarking (EWRB) initiative is a province-wide program that was introduced in 2017 by the Government of Ontario to promote energy and water conservation in residential, commercial, industrial, and institutional properties. Large buildings with a total floor area of more than 50,000 square feet are required to report their energy and water consumption data annually to the Ministry of Energy, Northern Development and Mines. This reporting is mandatory fo...

Oct 13, 2023 • 1 min read

Vancouver pump prices follow the daily movements of the wholesale price with a 24-hour delay before the new price hits the pumps. The wholesale prices increased on Wednesday by 13.7 cents and accounts for the increase of around 10.0 cents today. The reason, I believe prices jumped was as kneejerk reaction to Israel-Hamas conflict wherein it was thought that there would be an immediate problem with crude supply. This was an overreaction and suppliers re-thought the increase with a 15 cent fall ...

Oct 13, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. This week, as we flip the energy forecast coin, there are two sides – on one side there are oil prices, and on the other side – the world of fossil fuels (the price of gasoline and diesel), which may be the ones making the final call. On the first side of the coin, we look at the U.S. supply and ...

Oct 13, 2023 • 1 min read

More energy supply sources that are consistent with Ontario’s planned strategies to meet the province’s rising electricity demand have recently been announced. Another battery storage project was just confirmed, comprised of three locations with 5MW/20 MWh of energy each, which are expected to be in service by the summer of 2025. The IESO is planning to have 2,500 MW of battery storage available in Ontario by 2028. Atura Power, a subsidiary of OPG, recently announced plans to increas...

Oct 13, 2023 • 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price for October is currently $81.28/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $50.53/MWh, this results in an increase of $30.75/MWh or 60.9%. While the week-to-week change is significant, October is still well below the year-to-date average of $151.71/MWh. Even recent daily peaks have been suppressed relative to what we’ve seen this year, with the highest daily settle in October being $155.74/MWh. Pricing so far this month has remained low ...

Oct 13, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for November jumped to an eight-month high over the past week, reaching US$3.471/MMBtu on Monday, before backing down over 10 cents and trading at US$3.35/MMBtu as of 3:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Rising exports and a drop in daily US production put upward pressure on prices. Market analysts are closely watching global prices due to the recent conflict in the Middle East, with risk to global energy supplies. Storage inventories in North America remain healthy, with...

Oct 11, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins City News to review the potential impacts on world oil prices. Click here to read the article on City News.

Oct 10, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 06, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Better stand back because the OPEC+ bubble may be about to burst! Or has it already? Read on... With crude tanking $5 per barrel, and wholesale pump prices following suit, (dropping by 6 cents per litre the next day), the OPEC+ thinkers must be wanting to know the number of the bus that just hit them. How c...

Oct 06, 2023 • 1 min read

There has been much discussion recently about Ontario’s transition to a net-zero grid due to the federal government’s proposed Clean Electricity Regulations. Many leaders in the energy industry, including the CEO of Ontario’s electricity system operator, have voiced concerns about the short timelines to achieve net-zero generation and tight restrictions on gas generators. While Ontario is investing in long-term projects of brand new nuclear and hydro plants to address ongoing e...

Oct 06, 2023 • 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price for October is currently $50.53/MWh. Relative to September’s month-end price of $112.94/MWh, this represents a decrease of $62.41/MWh or 55.3%. Pricing has remained low this month, hitting a high of only $69.89/MWh and a low of $31.84/MWh on October 1st and 4th, respectively. One of the primary drivers of the drop off in pricing is the fact that we’re in a shoulder season, when demand tends to fall off. So far, hourly average demand...

Oct 06, 2023 • 2 min read

This week, Keyera Corp. finally completed its Key Access Pipeline System (KAPS), a 575-kilometre, $1.3 billion pipeline in Alberta, which is now ready to transport 350,000 barrels per day of natural gas liquids and condensate from Western Canadian production basins to the company’s propane, butane and condensate processing and storage hub in Fort Saskatchewan, northeast of Edmonton. The project was approved back in May 2019 and was expected to come online in late 2022. The KAPS opening on ...

Oct 02, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 29, 2023 • 1 min read

Prices in Vancouver and the Lower Mainland south of Kamloops are, in some part, determined by the import/export alternative open to refiners and resellers. If the wholesale prices are higher south of the border, then gasoline can either be exported for a higher price than what refiners can get domestically or they can increase wholesale prices at home to match those available in the export market, which is what I see happening now. Vancouver wholesale prices are following whatever the wholesale...

Sep 29, 2023 • 1 min read

The Ontario provincial government has initiated many long-term investments in electricity supply, including the potential for major expansions to the Bruce Power nuclear plant, greatly increasing the Darlington small modular nuclear reactor project, and possibly refurbishing the Pickering nuclear plant instead of closing its operations in 2026. According to the Independent Electricity System Operator’s (IESO) 18-month outlook report updated last week, there is just 60 MW of wind generation...

Sep 29, 2023 • 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price for September is currently $117.65/MWh, which represents a decrease of $14.21/MWh or 10.8% relative to last week’s price of $131.86/MWh. Pricing over the past week averaged $77.12/MWh, peaking at $173.40/MWh on September 21st. During the week, three days had daily settles below $50/MWh, with a low of $39.10/MWh on September 26th. While there were no supply surplus periods on the 26th, Power Pool prices did reach a low of $11.67/MWh at 5pm...

Sep 29, 2023 • 2 min read

Prompt-month has rolled over to November and Henry Hub natural gas futures are edging higher, trading at US$2.93/MMBtu as of 2:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Natural gas prices are forecasted to remain subdued as we enter the shoulder season, with seasonal temperatures reducing demand alongside a well-supplied North American gas market. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a storage build of 90 Bcf, the first above-average storage injection after eleven consecutive weeks of belo...

Sep 26, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 22, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Whether we like it or do not, energy prices drive inflation and the main actor in this ongoing drama we’re all in is fossil fuels. Wind, solar, and electricity are merely stand in actors for a later show that’s still in production. The short term, “on the street,” price outlook for gasolin...

Sep 22, 2023 • 1 min read

In Ontario, the ongoing electrification of our power systems continues to progress, along with other new initiatives laying the groundwork for electricity demand to increase. The provincial government is connecting more remote communities to the transmission grid in order to reduce their reliability on other carbon-emitting generators, and multiple government bodies have announced new investment projects to fund reducing emissions and switching to electric alternatives. Alongside falli...

Sep 22, 2023 • < 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price for September is currently $131.68/MWh, representing an increase of $8.00/MWh or 6% compared to last week’s settle of $123.70/MWh. Price volatility was rare for most of last week, except on September 16th, which saw elevated prices for the entire afternoon and had a daily settle of $230.33/MWh. This was caused by a sudden drop-off in wind generation and multiple generator outages. Similar to last week, the supply cushion has been tight, a...

Sep 22, 2023 • 1 min read

After rallying to a five-week high of US$2.872/MMBtu on Tuesday, September 19th, Henry Hub natural gas futures have fallen, trading at US$2.64/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. As summer winds down, the amount of natural gas burned for power generation has declined, and forecasts for milder weather have put downward pressure on prices. The extreme heatwaves in Texas over the past few months almost halved the US natural gas storage surplus; however, gas inventories are still expected to ...

Sep 19, 2023 • 3 min read

In an era where sustainability is no longer a buzzword but a necessity, companies are tasked to embrace energy sustainability as a core business strategy. A well-crafted sustainability strategy not only contributes to a greener planet but can also drive cost-efficiency and long-term resilience for your company. In this blog post, we will delve into the essential steps for formulating a sustainability strategy with a specific focus on energy sustainability. Let's explore the key questions to ask ...

Sep 19, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 15, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. As we head into the fall season, the hours of daylight get shorter while the “dark light” (my new scientific term for night), gets longer. Also getting shorter will be the patience level of consumers and their ability to pay for all refined products as prices will continue to increase, and the abilit...

Sep 15, 2023 • 1 min read

Nuclear power station Bruce Power announced that their Unit 6 reactor was returned to service and connected to Ontario’s electricity grid this week, after the successful completion of major life-extending refurbishments. This refurbishment was completed ahead of schedule, as the reactor was not expected to come online until the fourth quarter of this year. Of the six units that Bruce Power will refurbish over the next decade, this is the first reactor to complete the life-extension project...

Sep 15, 2023 • 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price for September is currently $123.70/MWh, which represents a $27.27/MWh or 28.3% increase relative to last week’s settle of $96.43/MWh. While volatility to start the month was kept to a minimum, we have seen prices trend slightly higher over the past few days, which is placing upward pressure on the monthly price; daily settles the last three days were $202.09/MWh, $240.16/MWh and $216.27/MWh. This can be attributed to lower levels of wind ...

Sep 15, 2023 • 1 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures continue to hold near the US$2.70/MMBtu mark, as moderate temperatures are forecasted for the rest of September, decreasing power demand. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a storage build of 57 Bcf, exceeding market expectations, pushing the declining storage inventory surplus 16.1% above year-ago levels and, relative to the five-year average, 6.8% greater. US gas production has decreased, estimated at 102 Bcf/day so far in September, down from...

Sep 11, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 11, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. When it comes to our Weekly Energy reports, I just love to say… “I told you so!” As I’ve written in several reports, diesel is what gets us to the supply chain finish line, and that line is getting more expensive to cross every day. And this is only the beginning! The calend...

Sep 11, 2023 • 1 min read

Electricity prices climbed high during the heatwave affecting most of Ontario this week. Prices started picking up around midday on Monday, as temperatures began to rise, and reached the highest hourly prices late in the afternoon on Tuesday. The weather is expected to return to normal, with milder temperatures, by tomorrow. The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 6.6¢/kWh so far for the month of September, representing a 3.4¢/kWh or 51.7% increase over ...

Sep 11, 2023 • 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price is currently $96.43/MWh, in contrast to August's month-end price of $192.90/MWh, resulting in a decrease of $96.47/MWh or just over 100%. September has had a very timid start to pricing, reaching a low of $36.33/MWh on the 3rd, when a supply surplus was in effect for less than an hour. Supply Surplus occurs when there is an oversupply of electricity in the market because of increased renewable energy. This causes prices to drop off and they can...

Sep 11, 2023 • 2 min read

Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge Inc. announced on Tuesday it will purchase three US utilities from Dominion Energy for US$14 billion, including US$4.6 billion of assumed debt. Enbridge will acquire East Ohio Gas Co., Public Service Company of North Carolina (PSNC) and Questar Gas Co., adding operations in Ohio, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah and North Carolina. The acquisition will create the largest natural gas franchise in North America and double Enbridge's gas distribution business. The deal is ex...

Sep 01, 2023 • 1 min read

The Government of Ontario has announced a new proposed electricity trade agreement with Québec. The provinces will swap 600MW of electricity every year for the next ten years, with Québec transferring power to Ontario during the summer, when Ontario’s peak demand periods occur, and the reverse occurring in winter while Québec’s peak demand occurs. A similar agreement was previously established in 2015, allowing for the direct exchange of 500MW of power, but this ...

Sep 01, 2023 • 1 min read

The month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price for August is currently $196.96/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $171.19/MWh, this results in an increase of $25.77/MWh or 15.1%. We saw some of the highest pricing of the year this past week, with daily settles of $555.87/MWh and $432.92/MWh on August 28th and 29th, respectively, ranking as the 2nd and 10th highest daily settles of 2023. Heat warnings throughout Northern Alberta caused the AESO to issue Emergency Alerts to curt...

Sep 01, 2023 • 2 min read

Prompt-month has rolled over to October and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trending higher, trading at US$2.79/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a storage injection of 32 Bcf, within range of market expectations, but below the five-year average injection of 52 Bcf. The impact of Hurricane Idalia on US power demand is unknown, as many are without power, reducing natural gas demand for power generation. North American storage rema...

Aug 31, 2023 • 3 min read

Ontario's journey towards a cleaner and more reliable electric grid has taken a significant leap forward with the recent announcement of a joint venture (as highlighted in our August 25th blog post) between Convergent Energy and Power, a pioneering energy storage solutions provider, and Alectra Energy Solutions, a trusted innovator in the energy sector. This collaborative initiative aims to bolster the province's energy storage capacity through the construction and operation of three battery ene...

Aug 28, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Aug 25, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Recently, some political entities went into retreat on PEI, and it makes me wonder if they were there to refresh, or perhaps discover what messages they should relay to their electorate. This is not an option for the fossil fuel dependent consumers, who need answers and a break on the rising cost of everything. C...

Aug 25, 2023 • 1 min read

The IESO recently confirmed a new battery energy storage system project, which will add 80 MW of storage to Ontario’s grid at sites in Guelph and Vaughan. Battery storage technology will reduce the effects of high demand peaks on electricity prices by collecting excess power during low-demand periods and supplying it to the grid when it is most needed, reducing the use of other generators to meet demand during peak periods. The IESO plans to have over 1200 MW of battery storage capacity op...

Aug 25, 2023 • 1 min read

August’s weighted average Power Pool price is currently $171.19/MWh, a $5.19/MWh or 3.1% increase from last week’s month-to-date price of $166/MWh. The uptick in pricing was primarily driven by the $479.28/MWh daily settle on August 22nd, which now ranks as the 4th highest daily settle in 2023. Despite this price spike, weighted average pricing over the past week was $183.31/MWh. Outages at the Path 2 Intertie drove daily volatility, as imports of electricity were limited when r...

Aug 25, 2023 • 2 min read

What a difference a year can make! After spiking to fourteen-year highs in 2022, natural gas prices have been trending lower. Dawn spot market prices averaged $10.18/GJ in August 2022, with the August 2023 month-to-date Dawn weighted average index rate at $2.94/GJ, down over 70% compared to last year. In 2023, warmer-than-forecasted winter weather in both North America and Europe has significantly decreased demand and prices for natural gas. Strong US gas production and European efforts to reduc...

Aug 24, 2023 • 3 min read

The energy landscape in Alberta has witnessed significant developments over the years, with a growing emphasis on renewable energy sources. However, recent announcements and debates have raised concerns about the direction of these efforts. In this blog post, we will objectively explore the situation surrounding the pause on renewable energy initiatives in Alberta, delving into the underlying reasons, potential consequences, and the broader implications for Canada's energy transition. The Annou...

Aug 21, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Aug 18, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. As the summer of 2023 rapidly disappears in our rear-view mirrors, the burning question is, what “normally” lies around the corner for consumers once they are off the road after the Labour Day holiday? There’s what “happens,” and then there’s, what “may” ha...

Aug 18, 2023 • 2 min read

August’s monthly Power Pool Price is currently $166/MWh, a significant jump of $44.01/MWh or 36% relative to last week’s month-to-date price of $121.99/MWh. Pricing volatility over the past week stemmed from outages at the Path 2 Interties, as well as a heat warning in Southern Alberta. Heat warnings typically result in increased demand. In fact, hourly demand in the province hit over 11,000MW for the first time since July 24th, which placed upward pressure on pricing. The weighted a...

Aug 18, 2023 • 1 min read

Despite a storage injection in line with market expectations, Hub natural gas futures are moving higher, up ~2%, trading at US$2.64/MMBtu as of 12:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Market analysts are closely monitoring potential strikes at Australian liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities, which could disrupt supply. Approximately 10% of the worldwide LNG supply comes from Australian exports, and there are concerns LNG shipments intended for Europe might be redirected to Asia to compensate for any p...

Aug 16, 2023 • 3 min read

The recently proposed Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), published on August 10th and previously mentioned in our August 11th blog post, have captured widespread attention due to their potential impact on the Canada’s energy landscape. In this blog post, we will explore the core components of these regulations and their potential implications. Canada's electricity generation makeup currently comprises a mix of sources. Approximately 84% of the electricity is generated from environmental...

Aug 14, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Aug 11, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Net Zero 2050?! Now that’s either a typo, or someone deleted the original email and wrote in the wrong year. I think this needs a proviso/addendum: How about, “’kinda’… ‘sorta’… Net Zero… in maybe… 2080!” The change in the above bumper stick...

Aug 11, 2023 • 2 min read

August’s monthly Power Pool price is currently settling at $121.99/MWh which, when compared to July’s month end price of $168.23/MWh, results in a decrease of $46.24/MWh or 27.5% month-over-month. Pricing so far this month has experienced some volatility, as the Power Pool price variance has been as low as $55.25/MWh and as high as $225.20/MWh on the 8th and 9th respectively. Interesting to note, is that the monthly high and low price points occurred on consecutive days. Hourly deman...

Aug 11, 2023 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures had a relatively eventful past 24 hours, with an unexpected surge in monthly futures contracts as far as out as Feb 2024. The price rally has played out as a “short squeeze” where a modest upward turn in prices gained substantial, albeit unwarranted, momentum during overnight trading as traders with short positions began covering their positions in a herd-like mentality (wide-spread panic) such that their actions cause a temporary rally to play out. The escalation...

Aug 04, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. As we, the family of energy consumers, head out on our summer road trips, we definitely have a problem from the get-go. We are not driving the metaphorical car, and we don’t even have a map as to where we are going. But OPEC+ does. With global crude demand hitting a record 102.8 million barrel...

Aug 04, 2023 • 2 min read

July’s monthly price settled at $160.48/MWh. Compared to last week’s month-to-date price of $168.23/MWh, this represents a marginal decrease of $7.75/MWh or 4.6%. July’s price came in favourably versus market forwards, which were anticipating the month to settle over $200/MWh. Minimal market volatility to round out the month aided in lowering the monthly Power Pool Price, as the last week in July averaged $125.68/MWh, with a peak daily price of $176.45/MWh on July 31st. Elevate...

Aug 04, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures jumped over 10 cents today, trading at US$2.57/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon, after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a smaller-than-expected build in US natural gas inventories. Following an injection of 14 Bcf, storage levels are now 22.4% above year-ago levels and, relative to the five-year average, 12% greater. The EIA reports US power usage reached 14.7 million MWh on July 27th, just below the 14.8-million MWh record on July 20...

Aug 02, 2023 • 4 min read

For businesses in Ontario, managing electricity costs is a significant challenge, especially for Class A customers participating in the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI). The Global Adjustment (GA) charge, based on the peak demand factor (PDF), can often result in unpredictable and high expenses. However, with the right strategies and careful monitoring, businesses have the opportunity to significantly reduce their GA costs and stabilize electricity rates. In this blog post, we will explo...

Jul 28, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. If inflation goes up, interest rates go up also. Ignoring a problem doesn’t mean it will go away, it just means it will become a bigger problem and by then it could be too late to fix. Over the next 10 years, the fossil fuel industry may become a problem for who I like to call the ‘el...

Jul 28, 2023 • 1 min read

Power Pool Prices averaged $218.35/MWh over the past week, pushing the price for July to $168.23/MWh. In contrast to last week’s month-to-date price of $147.92/MWh, this resulted in an increase of $20.31/MWh or 14%. Pricing on July 21st and July 24th settled at $365.96/MWh, and $308.67/MWh, respectively, with demand reaching a monthly high of 11,522 MW at 3pm MST on July 24th. The Power Pool Price peaked at $919.14/MWh during hour ending 18 on July 21st and saw a weekly low of $22.55/MWh d...

Jul 28, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading lower at US$2.59/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon, down 10 cents despite a bullish storage injection report. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a build of 16 Bcf, lower than market estimates and historical averages. The US storage inventory surplus is now 23.7 % above year-ago levels and, relative to the five-year average, 13.1% greater. Natural gas demand used for power generation hit a record high on July 18th as extreme h...

Jul 24, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Jul 21, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. With this being the peak of the summer holiday season, it’s normal for consumers to let things slide a bit on the ‘stress-o-meter’ scale. On the fossil fuel side of things, it looks like the futures traders on Wall Street are also in holiday mode. No wonder. The latest U.S. inventory rep...

Jul 21, 2023 • 2 min read

Month-to-date pricing for July is $147.92/MWh, an increase of $54.89/MWh or 59% relative to an average price of $93.03/MWh seen the first week in the month. Over the past week and a half, market volatility has been minimal, with a peak price of $194.75/MWh on July 19th and an average price of $129.93/MWh. Heading into the month of July, market forwards indicated an expected settlement of over $200/MWh, so current prices come as a sigh of relief. Intermittent generator outages at Battle River 4 a...

Jul 21, 2023 • 2 min read

Unrelenting heatwaves in the United States, especially in Texas, are accelerating the amount of natural gas generators burning for power generation. The extreme heat is expected to continue next week, with the potential to last into August in parts of the Southwest. US power sector gas demand is expected to peak in 2023, increasing 1.5 Bcf/d year-over-year, as low natural gas prices incentivize reliance on gas-fired power generation. US natural gas storage inventories remain well above historica...

Jul 19, 2023 • 3 min read

Introduction In the energy industry, rare phenomena often capture our attention and prompt us to delve deeper into the underlying factors. One such event is the occurrence of hourly settles dropping to zero dollars per megawatt-hour (MWh), where electricity prices in Alberta plummet to an astonishing $0.00/MWh. These instances are infrequent but not unheard of, typically arising when renewable generation levels are high and reliance on fossil fuel generators is low. In this article, we will exp...

Jul 17, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Jul 07, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. The nervously anticipated pricing fireworks that were ignited by the activation of the Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) that came into effect on July 1, seems to have been a bit of a dud. There were no massive spikes at the retail gasoline pumps attributed to the CFR. At least for the time being. The only shock ...

Jul 07, 2023 • 2 min read

July’s month-to-date pricing is currently $93.03/MWh, representing a decrease of $100.33/MWh or 51.9% relative to June’s month end price of $193.36/MWh. With the Canada Day long weekend, July pricing began with minimal volatility, as settles for the first 3 days in the month averaged $31.51/MWh. Conversely, the following two days had pricing averaged at $182.70/MWh. Demand had a minimal impact on pricing, as it averaged higher on July 1st than on the 4th and 5th. Volatility was prima...

Jul 07, 2023 • 1 min read

Despite extreme heat in Texas, US gas production neared record highs, averaging 101.9 Bcf/d so far in July, compared to the May record of 102.5 Bcf/d and 100.9 Bcf/d in June. Uncertainty remains with summer cooling demand, but the large storage surplus will continue to help suppress prices. Storage levels have been at a surplus to the five-year average since January 2023, reaching a high in March at 22.7%, and still exceeding year-ago levels and the five-year average by a wide margin. In 2022, s...

Jul 04, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Jun 30, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Despite the many efforts by political and environmental activists, who are determined to rid the world of fossil fuels, the truth is, it is still the consumer’s most inexpensive and available low-cost option. Media has recently contacted me about Suncor’s cyberattack that affected portions of its reta...

Jun 30, 2023 • 1 min read

June’s Power Pool Price is currently $195.39/MWh, compared to last week’s month-to-date price of $191.79/MWh, resulting in a marginal increase of $3.60/MWh or 1.9%. While the monthly price has only shown a minor increase, day-to-day pricing has been very volatile. We saw extreme contrasts in price on the 25th and 26th, where daily pricing settled to $54.76/MWh and $526.03/MWh, respectively, representing an increase of $471.27/MWh or 861% within a 48-hour period. Price variances can p...

Jun 30, 2023 • 2 min read

Wildfires in Alberta continue to have Canadian gas producers curtailing output in parts of northwestern Alberta. S&P Global Commodity Insights reports total gas production in Canada was estimated at 17.4 Bcf/d on June 22nd, down from the average 18.5 Bcf/d from January to April 2023 before the wildfire outbreaks began over eight weeks ago. With cheaper gas and strong US demand for natural gas used for power generation, Canadian pipeline exports to the US have increased from 7.5 Bcf/d at the ...

Jun 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Power Pool Prices averaged $47.43/MWh over the past week, pulling down the price for June to $191.79/MWh. In contrast to last week’s month-to-date price of $263.34/MWh, this resulted in a decrease of $71.55/MWh or 27%. We saw the lowest daily settle of the year on June 19th, with a price of $24.61/MWh, beating out the previous low of $26.08/MWh on June 16th. On the day, the province experienced lower-than-average demands, settling to only 8,247MW versus the year-to-date average of 9,817MW....

Jun 22, 2023 • 3 min read

According to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates, working gas in storage was 2,729 Bcf as of Friday June 16th, 2023. This represents a net increase of 95 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 571 Bcf (26.5%) higher than last year at this time and 362 Bcf (15.3%) above the five-year average of 2,367 Bcf. At 2,729 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. As expected north of the border in Canada, a 12 Bcf injection was reported for the week ending June ...

Jun 19, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg.

Jun 16, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. This week’s report is all questions and then some more questions. Who do you believe? What is the future of fossil fuels if there even is one? And, in the interlude to the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, where will the prices of gasoline and diesel be headed? If there is no future, then ...

Jun 16, 2023 • 1 min read

Month-to-date pricing for June is currently $263.34/MWh, down from last week’s monthly price of $337.78/MWh. Heat warnings were removed in later parts of the week and, as a result, pricing settled. With less extreme temperatures and heat warnings lifted, the province saw several daily settles occur below $50/MWh; on the 10th, 13th, and 14th, prices settled at $37.32/MWh, $44.38/MWh, and $31.07/MWh, respectively. The common theme these days was elevated levels of renewable generation coinci...

Jun 16, 2023 • 1 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures have rallied higher this week, up 20 cents today, trading at US$2.54/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. A lower-than-expected US storage inventory report, along with the first summer heat wave in Texas, has put upward pressure on prices. Electricity usage in Texas is expected to break records this week, increasing natural gas demand used for power generation. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 2,634 Bcf for the week ending June 9th, following an overa...

Jun 12, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg

Jun 08, 2023 • 2 min read

These are the musings and opinions of our self-proclaimed “Grouch” and Chief Petroleum Analyst—Roger McKnight, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of En-Pro. Don’t blink because if you do you may miss it – or even lose it! The elephant has woken up and isn’t happy with its surroundings. Irving Oil has issued a statement indicating the Saint John, New Brunswick refinery may be on the auction block as part of their, “change in portfolio of asset...

Jun 08, 2023 • 2 min read

June month-to-date pricing is currently $337.78/MWh, which is an increase of $181.68/MWh compared to May's price of $156.10/MWh. Over the past week, the province had extreme variances in pricing, with daily settles averaging $42.87/MWh and $582.96/MWh on the 1st and 7th, respectively. The province is currently under an extreme heat advisory, which has caused significant fluctuations in pricing. With the heat advisory in effect, there were 7 hourly periods where pricing maxed out at $999.99/MWh o...

Jun 08, 2023 • 1 min read

With the heat warnings and dry weather returning to western Canada, Alberta wildfires have Canadian gas producers curtailing output after rebounding at the end of May. S&P Global Commodity Insights reports total gas production in Canada was estimated at 17.7 Bcf/d on June 7th, down from the average 18.5 Bcf/d from January to April 2023 before the Alberta wildfire outbreaks began. Canadian pipeline exports to the US in June have climbed to average 5 Bcf/d, despite the decline in production af...

Jun 05, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg

Jun 02, 2023 • 2 min read

I have concluded that the way this country either fights or addresses climate change (formerly known as, “the weather”), is to tax (also known as, “penalize”) the taxpayers without offering any viable alternatives. Until such time as there is another path to “energy salvation,” may I humbly suggest that politicians research how to help reverse or slow climate change, NOT tax it. This is my roundabout way of warning you of yet another tax disguised as a carb...

Jun 02, 2023 • 1 min read

The weighted average Power Pool Price for May settled at $156.10/MWh, representing a decrease of $2.47/MWh or 1.5% compared to the previous week’s month-to-date price. On May 26th, the Alberta Power Pool experienced its highest weekly price settlement of $271.92/MWh. This surge in price can be attributed to the combination of near minimal wind generation and peak demand periods. With reduced wind generation, the supply of electricity became tighter, leading to higher prices. When solar pow...

Jun 02, 2023 • 2 min read

This week, Danielle Smith was successful in maintaining the UCP’s majority in the provincial legislature, albeit by a slim margin. Two major prongs of Smith’s political mandate are to work with Ottawa to a) push back target dates for Alberta’s part in achieving Canada’s net-zero emissions grid by 2035; and b) rework the emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, which is supposed to begin taking effect in 2030. Nearly three-quarters of the province’s grid is fired by...

May 29, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg

May 26, 2023 • 2 min read

Short term fossil fuel prices have moved out of hovering mode and have gone directly into shadowboxing mode, where you try to hit your opponent, but they aren’t there and haven’t been all along. Because when you’re boxing with no one then nobody wins. As a fellow consumer, I look at supply and demand for all petroleum-based products to try to anticipate where prices may be headed. Then I try to balance my simplistic arithmetic against the complex calculus of domestic and geopo...

May 26, 2023 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $158.57/MWh, a decrease of $16.43/MWh or 9.4% relative to last week’s price of $175/MWh. Over the past week, Alberta experienced some extreme contrasts of highs and lows. We saw some of the lowest prices of the year on May 22nd, which ranked in the top 5 lowest, and then the current highest daily settle on May 24th. Pricing for the respective days settled to $32.17/MWh and $550.85/MWh. Prior to the settle on the 24th, t...

May 26, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures continue to hold below US$2.50/MMBtu, trading at US$2.44/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon, despite another smaller-than-expected storage injection. The EIA reported a build of 96 Bcf, in line with the five-year average, and below estimates averaging 101 Bcf. The storage inventory surplus is now 29.3% above year-ago levels and, relative to the five-year average, 17% greater. US gas production has remained steady, even with the rig counts decreasing las...

May 19, 2023 • 2 min read

As consumers head out at the start of the driving season, they will face a detour when it comes to prices they’re going to pay for gasoline and diesel. Although holiday planning for summer may be at the top of many lists, the holiday is over when it comes to energy prices within the fossil fuel portfolio. Several factors are coming together, which will make for a bumpy ride as we work our way through the summer and into the fall. In short, supply is short. And here’s a few rea...

May 19, 2023 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $175/MWh, a decrease of $21.47/MWh or 10.9% compared to last week’s price of $196.47/MWh. Pricing over the last week settled to $144.44/MWh, which caused the monthly price to drop. Even though the settled weekly price was relatively low, daily pricing was still volatile. Daily Power Pool Prices ranged from $26.98/MWh to $248.04/MWh, on May 16th and May 12th, respectively. One of the key differentiating factors between t...

May 19, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures jumped over 20 cents today, trading at US$2.57/MMBtu as of 2:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon, after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a smaller-than-expected build in US natural gas inventories. Following an injection of 99 Bcf, storage levels are now 30.3% above year-ago levels and, relative to the five-year average, 17.9% greater. On Friday, Baker Hughes Co (BKR.O) reported a significant drop in US gas rig counts, down 16 to 141, the lowest since...

May 15, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg

May 12, 2023 • 2 min read

While I realize all the excitement surrounding the Electric Vehicle (EV), and I admit the future of government subsidized EV’s looks bright. Let’s not forget this will only be for as long as the subsidized light is on. When the subsidies are no longer available, that’s when many people, politicians, and consortiums may be brought back to reality because let’s face it – fossil fuels will still be the transportation go-to fuel for at least the next 10 years. That is,...

May 12, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $196.47/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $289.12/MWh, this is a decrease of $92.65/MWh or 32%. Pricing over the past week started off very low, with daily settles averaging $49.52/MWh from the 4th to the 7th. After the 7th, prices began to escalate, averaging $297.58/MWh over the following three days. Recent volatility is attributed to minimal renewable generation and decreased availability of natural gas-generated...

May 12, 2023 • 1 min read

Raging wildfires in Alberta have prompted the shut-in of gas-producing plants and production in parts of northwestern Alberta. With over 100 active wildfires, production shut-ins started May 5th on TC Energy's Nova Gas Transmission Line by ~20% (2.5 Bcf/d). The drop in production resulted in the AECO 5a spot price jumping to a high of C$2.78/GJ on May 8th, up 27% from the month-to-date average of $2.18/GJ. AECO spot pricing has eased as Canadian gas production has started to rebound, but is stil...

May 08, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. He says this year is an interesting year for demand and he sees consumers travelling less amid inflation and recession. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg

May 05, 2023 • 2 min read

Are today’s price movements in the petroleum industry a mirage? Have the crude oil traders gone all fossil ‘fuelish?’ Are today’s plummeting crude oil prices real or imagined? Is the consumer going to be sucker punched back to reality? When looking at the end pump or rack price to the consumer, there is normally an inverse relationship between supply and demand, which I guess is better than no relationship at all. This means when inventories are seen to fall then...

May 05, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $289.12/MWh. Relative to April’s month-end price of $143.47/MWh, this results in an increase of $145.65/MWh or 102%. The first few days this month have been polarizing in terms of pricing, with an extremely low settle on the 1st, at $49.27/MWh, followed by back-to-back days of price spikes, with daily averages of $457.55/MWh, and $363/MWh on the 2nd and 3rd, respectively. Demand has not been a factor in price determinat...

May 05, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures slid further this week, trading at US$2.09/MMBtu as of 2:45pm EDT Thursday afternoon, as milder temperatures have reduced heating demand and natural gas production remains robust. The average US gas output increased to 101.7 Bcf/d in May, up from a record 101.4 bcf/d in April. This week's US storage build of 54 Bcf was in line market expectations, putting the storage inventory surplus 32.6% above year-ago levels and, relative to the five-year average, 19.8% greater....

May 01, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg

Apr 28, 2023 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $153.01/MWh, an increase of $9.78/MWh or 6.8% relative to last week’s price of $143.23/MWh. Volatility has been an issue over the past week, which is clear from the uptick in week-over-week pricing. Daily prices on April 20th and 21st settled above $300/MWh, at $495.12/MWh and $383.20/MWh, respectively. Fortunately, there were also three days which settled below $70/MWh, on the 22nd, 23rd and 25th; on these days, Powe...

Apr 28, 2023 • 2 min read

Prompt month has rolled over to June and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$2.35/MMBtu as of 2:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Since January, market forwards and cash prices have continued a downward trajectory, as robust production, a delayed restart of the Freeport liquified natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, and a mild winter significantly loosened the supply/demand balance. After a US storage injection of 79 Bcf for the week ending April 21st, storage levels are now 35.4% abo...

Apr 24, 2023 • < 1 min read

Click here to watch the video on BNN Bloomberg

Apr 21, 2023 • 2 min read

In the game of heads or tails, you have a 50% chance of getting it right and a 50% chance of getting it wrong. That’s about the best way to describe the forecasting methodology used today in crude oil markets. If we look at the traditional road map based on supply and demand today, then there are lots of choices available in the opinion basket. The current supply situation has crude oil inventories down by 4.6 million barrels, which should have knee-jerked gasoline pump prices overnight....

Apr 21, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $143.23/MWh, an increase of $11.30/MWh or 8.6% relative to last week’s price of $131.93/MWh. Volatility was prevalent two days over the past week, with daily prices of $277.55/MWh and $297.19/MWh on April 13th and 18th, respectively. A common issue for both days was lower levels of renewable generation, which caused an over-reliance on more expensive forms of natural gas generation. In later parts of the week, there w...

Apr 21, 2023 • 1 min read

The US natural gas storage surplus continues to widen after a larger-than-normal injection of 75 Bcf for the week ending April 14th. The build has pushed storage inventories 33.8% above year-ago levels and 20.5% above the five-year average. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports net withdrawals during the 2022-23 heating season (November - March) were the lowest in seven years, since the 2015-16 withdrawal season. Increased US natural gas production, averaging 5.5% above the 2021-22...

Apr 14, 2023 • 2 min read

With winter now in our rear-view mirror, can we dispose of our season of discontent and relax in anticipation of a, “don’t worry, be happy” summer driving season? As we are talking about fossil fuels, the supply and demand numbers are somewhat shruggable – a dominant mannerism of some of today’s Ottawa-based politicians. However, the current US inventory report should not be shrugged off. Although crude levels increased, it was hardly noticeable with an increase...

Apr 14, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $131.93/MWh, a drop of $58.74/MWh or 30.8% relative to last week’s price of $190.67/MWh. Volatility decreased significantly over the past week, with a weekly price of $88.71/MWh. Two of the lowest daily prices were set for 2023 on the 8th and 9th, when prices averaged $31.50/MWh and $43.07/MWh, respectively. Prices were suppressed thanks to large amounts of renewable generation, specifically wind, and a 1.7% reduction...

Apr 14, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures continue to hold near US$2/MMBtu as warm spring temperatures have weakened demand, pushing storage inventory levels higher. As reported in the Energy Information Administration (EIA) April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA forecasts natural gas inventories will end the injection season (April-October) 6% above the five-year average. This is a complete reversal of 2022 when storage inventories ended the injection season over 3% below the five-year averag...

Apr 11, 2023 • 2 min read

Some people love a parade while others just like surprises. Either way, this week’s report is for you. The fossil fuel division of the energy sector has a “special” going on right now: You can choose one or the other – or both. First, let’s look at the surprise package disguised as a booby trap. I am referring of course to the 1.16 million barrel per day (bpd) crude oil production cut as announced by OPEC + to be effective in May, and to run for the balance of the...

Apr 11, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $190.67/MWh. Relative to March’s month-end price of $175.26/MWh, this results in an increase of $15.41/MWh or 8.8%. So far, pricing levels in April have been slightly elevated, with four out of the first five days in the month settling to over $150/MWh. Pricing on April 4th settled to $381.43/MWh, taking the top spot for pricing so far in 2023. This beat out the previous high of $363.46/MWh, set on March 7th. Elevated...

Apr 11, 2023 • 2 min read

US natural gas storage inventories continue to strengthen, pushing far above year-ago levels, and 19.5% above the five-year average. A withdrawal of 23 Bcf for the week ending March 31st was in line with market expectations, putting further downward pressure on prices. Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$2.02/MMBtu as of 2:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon, after dropping briefly below US$2/MMBtu, as steady production further widens the supply/demand imbalance. A milder-than-expected winte...

Apr 03, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. He says U.S. crude and gasoline levels are falling, input costs are higher, and there's an increase in the carbon tax in Canada leading to higher prices. He says these increases will affect the average Canadian house hold to the tune of $400 to$850 per year. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg

Mar 31, 2023 • 2 min read

There’s another day gone, another day closer to Net Zero 2050, and another budget to choke on. So, no Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG) on or before 2050. This means that fossil fuels will, by then, be replaced by alternative modes of energy to facilitate, or should I say, allow manufactured goods to be transported to the consumer. This is a global agreement, right? I’m not sure, but… oh well, what can any of us say or do about it? All I know is the year 2050 ...

Mar 31, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for March is currently $183.08/MWh, a decrease of $14.66/MWh or 7.4% relative to last week’s price of $197.74/MWh. Pricing over the past week averaged $135.28/MWh, with March 23rd and March 29th settling to less than $70/MWh. While there was some volatility on the 27th, when the daily price averaged $265.88/MWh, the remainder of the week’s settles were within expectations. There was also a noticeable increase in renewable generation o...

Mar 31, 2023 • 2 min read

Prompt month has rolled over to May and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$2.10/MMBtu as of 3:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon, down over 20 cents from last Friday's close of US$2.36/MMBtu. Mild weather forecasts continue to put downward pressure on prices despite the volume of gas flowing to liquified natural gas (LNG) export plants, on track to reach a monthly high as the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas resumed operations after an eight-month outage. The market is down significantly...

Mar 27, 2023 • < 1 min read

Oil prices have dropped, but why haven't gas prices? Expert Roger McKnight tells us about the uncertainty in gas prices going forward. Click here to read the article on Global News.

Mar 27, 2023 • 2 min read

I pressed the wrong button on my TV remote the other day, and ended up watching, or more accurately, enduring the drama of the parliamentary program, Question Period. As I understand it, this is when the party in opposition is constitutionally tasked with asking the party in power to clarify actions, or non-actions, taken on certain matters of the day. In my opinion, Question Period is better described as the time allotted when no questions get answered. If President Biden is looking for some d...

Mar 27, 2023 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for March is currently $197.74/MWh, a marginal increase of $6.22/MWh or 3.2% relative to last week’s price of $191.52/MWh. Daily settles over the past week have been elevated, with an average weekly price of $211.57/MWh and a lowest daily settle of $119.13/MWh on March 16th. On the 21st, the daily price settled to $332.35/MWh, which ranks as the 3rd highest daily settle so far in 2023. Price spikes over the past week can primarily be attrib...

Mar 27, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures prices continue to tumble, trading at US$2.16/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Futures have fallen US$0.27/MMBtu from last week and are down over US$3/MMBtu from a year earlier, as an unusually mild winter in both North America and Europe significantly reduced heating demand. US gas production continues to rise, averaging 98.6 Bdf/d in March, up from 98.2 Bcf/d in February. The EIA reports US liquified natural gas (LNG) exports averaged 106 Bcf/d in 2022, ...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Crisis! Oh, crises! There are so many, we’re all asking, which one? We have hop-scotched from the climate crisis to the energy crisis, and now, with the fallout of the Silicon Valley Bank failure – banks are once again creaking on their foundations, and we have a consumer confidence crisis. And it’s only Thursday! If I were to package this all together, I would call it a consumer confusion crisis. And if you and I are looking for some calming guidance from our bank of polit...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for March is currently $191.52/MWh, relative to last week’s price of $224.04/MWh, results in a decrease of $32.52/MWh or 14.5%. While there hasn’t been extreme or extended volatility over this past week to push prices up, daily average Pool prices are elevated and have averaged $154.23/MWh, preventing the monthly Power Pool price from dropping significantly. Over the past week, there has been only one day, March 13th, where prices set...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub prompt month futures continue to hover around the mid-$2 range, trading at US$2.53/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Milder winter weather in January and February significantly reduced heating demand, pushing storage inventories into a surplus well above historical averages. Prices are forecasted to remain depressed heading into the shoulder season, but the risk of volatility returns in the summer as high coal prices widen the spread between coal and natural gas prices, spurri...

Mar 22, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. He says if the U.S. Fed raises interest rates, the reaction at the traders’ desks will be for lower futures prices and pump prices should fall. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Nap time is over! We are soon to be awakened by a bite of energy reality. I will partially abstain, or at least shorten, my comments on the supply and demand side of this discussion for fear of any readers relapsing back to sleep. In short, supply of crude, and its refined product derivatives, are currently outpacing the demand. This is causing wholesale prices to fall for gasoline and diesel; this isn’t a free-fall situation though, because we consumers, will be paying for it in the thi...

Mar 22, 2023 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for March is currently $224.04/MWh. Relative to February’s month-end price of $126.17/MWh, this represents an increase of $97.87/MWh or 77.6%. A new highest daily settle of the year occurred on March 7th, reaching a high of $363.46/MWh. While extreme weather warnings subsided, hourly demand remained elevated and placed upward pressure on pricing. Furthermore, extremely low levels of wind generation (e.g., the weekly average was 10-15% of ca...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures prices continue to swing on changing weather forecasts, trading at US$2.53/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon, after pushing above US$3/MMBtu on March 3rd. US Federal regulators have approved the restart of the last remaining liquefaction train at the Freeport liquified natural gas (LNG) export facility in Texas. Operations have been slowly ramping up after an explosion in June 2022 resulted in the largest LNG outage in US history. As reported in the Energy I...

Mar 22, 2023 • 1 min read

It’s difficult to know where you’re going if you’re sleep walking. The Wall Street traders must feel like zombies right now as they try to determine what path to take when forecasting crude prices. That’s because there isn’t a clear or safe direction to take. The flavour of the month price range today has West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in the range of $72 to $82/bbl. It’s hard to put a handle on any forecast when futuristic numbers are a guess as to wher...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for February settled to $126.17/MWh. Relative to last week’s month-to-date price of $110.89/MWh, this represents an increase of $15.28/MWh or 13.8%. As a result of extreme weather, the province saw its highest daily settle of the year on February 23rd at $354.21/MWh. When the weather warnings subsided, we saw volatility fall off and prices return to expected levels. Further contributing to price instability this past week, several intermitt...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

After briefly dipping below US$2/MMBtu last week, natural gas futures have rallied higher this week, with Henry Hub prompt-month futures trading at US$2.75/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Cooler weather patterns than previously expected for next week, along with the partial return of the Freeport liquified natural gas (LNG) export facility, has put upward pressure on prices. US LNG export feed demand levels have increased, averaging 12.8 Bcf/d in February, up from an average 12.3 Bcf/...

Mar 22, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. He says traders in the futures market are trying to weigh the chances of prices increasing or decreasing. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

We are at the halfway point to nowhere. Half of nothing is nothing. That pretty well sums up the forecasting accuracy if one were to use the tools available from the usually reliable sources, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) heading up the list. At the time of this report, the EIA data was delayed, so I am going on a wing and a prayer to make my deadline. The current trend appears to support a guestimate of another increase in U.S. crude inventories, this is according to...

Mar 22, 2023 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for February is currently $110.89/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $94.28/MWh, this represents a marginal increase of $16.61/MWh or 17.6%. Over the past week, two daily settles placed in the top 5 of 2023; February 21st and 22nd settled at $328.01/MWh and $219.31/MWh, respectively, ranking 1st and 5th for the highest price of the year. Volatility for these periods is primary being attributed to inclement weather, as various parts of th...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

After briefly dipping below US$2/MMBtu yesterday, Henry Hub prompt-month futures have rebounded over 30 cents, trading at US$2.38/MMBtu as of 2:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. US federal regulators have approved the partial restart of commercial operations at the Freeport liquified natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which has been offline since an explosion in June 2022. Once ramped up fully, Freeport will be able to export ~2 Bcf/d of LNG. On Tuesday, the plant was authorized to utilize two ...

Mar 22, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. McKnight noted that 'over the short term pump prices are under downward pressure as crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to build.' McKnight added that there's no specific timeline on when this will change. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

If you need proof that things aren’t always as they appear, or that you shouldn’t believe everything you read or hear from a politician – this report is for you. Just look at the latest U.S. inventory report, and focus in on the crude oil numbers, which show an increase of 16 million barrels. At first blush this should trigger a free fall in crude oil futures because this puts crude at 8% above the 5-year average. But it didn’t happen. Why? First, there was draw f...

Mar 22, 2023 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for February is currently $94.14/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $79.46/MWh, this represents an increase of $14.68/MWh or 18%. Prices averaged $111.02/MWh over the past week, pulling the average weekly price up after peaking to a high of $834.60/MWh at HE 14 on February 13th. Generator outages at Battle River 5, Sheerness 2 and Path 83 limited supply and increased hourly pricing. The hourly demand for February is averaging 10,335 MW a...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures have plummeted from the fourteen-year highs in fall 2022, with Henry Hub prompt-month futures trading at US$2.43/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Strong US dry gas production, a mild winter in both North America and Europe, and the ongoing delayed restart of the Freeport liquified natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas has eliminated the natural gas storage deficit. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated working gas storage was 2,266 Bcf for the week...

Mar 22, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. He says Russian crude cuts in March could affect futures prices and short term pump prices, along with U.S. refinery maintenance. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Are we all having a Charlie Brown moment? Just when it seems that we, the energy consumers, are ready to line up the ball and kick it for a field goal, either politicians pull the ball away, or reality takes the ball and runs. No doubt the latest profit numbers as reported by the major oil companies are… what’s the word?... numbing. The top four have poured $196 billion into their tills. Exxon, Imperial Oil Canada’s majority owner, accounted for $56 billion of the total. &ldq...

Mar 22, 2023 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for February is currently $79.46/MWh. Relative to January’s month-end price of $127.56/MWh, this represents a decrease of $48.10/MWh or 37.7%. While pricing throughout the month has experienced some volatility, year-to-date pricing has been much more stable compared to 2022. So far this month, the highest daily settles have been $132.17/MWh and $129.31/MWh on the 1st and 8th, respectively. If we were to omit these two days of volatility, th...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures continue to hold near US$2.50/MMBtu, dropping over 40% since the start of 2023. The United States has seen the mildest January since 2006, significantly reducing heating demand. Robust US natural gas production and improved storage inventories has driven down domestic natural gas prices. Going forward, key supply/demand factors affecting natural gas prices will be extreme weather conditions - hot or cold, growth in renewables, and the restart of the Freeport LNG exp...

Mar 22, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. He says there are large inventories of refined products driving down prices at the pumps which is unusual for this time of year. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Oh no, say it isn’t so! According to the scientifically challenged predictions by several subterranean rodents from Punxsutawney Phil and Staten Island Chuck to Wiarton Willy, it looks like we will have to endure another six weeks of winter. Maybe, maybe not. My question is, when it comes to the winter season and distillates (heating oil, diesel, and jet fuel prices), what does it matter? If you look at the latest U.S. inventory/demand data, we are in a lull and there is no im...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for January settled to $127.56/MWh. Relative to last week’s month-to-date price of $137.34/MWh, this represents a decrease of $9.78/MWh or 7.1%. January experienced a few periods of volatility, with prices on three days reaching over $200/MWh, but compared to market expectations heading into the month, the monthly price was significantly lower. Bullish weather forecasts and previous monthly settles caused certain market analysts to anticipa...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

2023 has seen natural gas prices collapse to their lowest level since April 2021. Henry Hub prompt-month futures are trading at US$2.56/MMBtu as of 12:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon, down over 50 cents from a week earlier and falling over US$2.15/MMBtu from last year at this time. Natural gas prices have plunged over the past month, as unprecedented warm weather in January throughout most of the US has decreased heating demand and reduced the storage deficit. Strengthening US natural gas production...

Mar 22, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. McKnight says gasoline is in danger of becoming a luxury. He also noted that 'the latest supply/demand data from the EIA indicates that demand for gasoline and the family of distillates is falling off as consumers stay home and avoid not only the pumps but the grocery stores.' Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Mar 22, 2023 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for January is currently $137.34/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $147.17/MWh, this represents a decrease of $9.83/MWh or 6.7%. Over the weekend, and into the beginning of this week, prices averaged $84.36/MWh, with a daily low of $64.16/MWh occurring on January 23rd. Over the past couple of days, however, prices averaged $179.27/MWh, pulling the average weekly price up to $111.64/MWh. While hourly demands over the past week decreased ...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub futures continue to plunge, falling below US$3/MMBtu for the first time since spring 2021. Prompt-month futures are trading at US$2.77/MMBtu as of 2:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon, 70% lower than the highs in August 2022. Warmer than expected weather forecasts, which would reduce heating demand, along with strong US natural gas production, around 100 Bcf/d, has driven prices lower. The abnormally mild weather this winter in both Europe and North America has pushed natural gas storage inve...

Mar 22, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to give his gasoline price outlook for the week ahead. He says starting mid-February 15-U.S. refineries will be off-line taking out 1.4M barrels per day of capacity. This will lower inventories and drive up wholesale prices. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

As I wrote a while back, the catchy phrase, “You can pay me now or pay me later” was used years ago by Midas Muffler. The inference, as I interpreted it, was that paying for their quality product today would save consumers paying higher prices later if they went with an alternative supplier. Fast forward to the reality of today’s fossil fuel markets and this phrase morphs into, “You can pay me now and pay me later.” Current transportation fuel prices may...

Mar 22, 2023 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for January is currently $147.17/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $149.26/MWh, this represents a slight decrease of $2.09/MWh or 1.4%. Volatility continues in the province, but not to the same degree experienced at the end of 2022. While several hourly periods over the past week settled above $300/MWh, there were days during which the Power Pool Price settled in the $50-$60/MWh range, even during peak demand periods. In the last week, ...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Strong US production and lower than expected heating demand have driven Henry Hub futures lower. Prompt-month futures for February fell over 7% to close at US$3.311/MMBtu on Wednesday, the lowest settlement since June 22, 2021. US natural gas production averaged over 100 Bcf/day the past week. As reported in the EIA January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA forecasts US production will reach record highs, averaging 109.11 Bcf/d in 2023 and 111.24 Bcf/d in 2024. The EIA has lowered its He...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

To hedge or not to hedge, that is the question Should we go out and look for a safe harbour to hide in, or do we go into this storm and try to ride it out? That’s my metaphor for this week’s report. Translation: To hedge or not to hedge diesel and gasoline prices. Do we lock in now or just ride the market? Hedging is a fancy verb for guessing. My short and blunt answer is right now would be a good idea to find a real hedge and hide under it. Not too long ago, opting to take a hed...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for January is currently $149.26/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $113.36/MWh, this is an increase of $35.90/MWh or 31.7%. Despite the mild weather, price volatility has increased in the past few days. Daily prices of $289.64/MWh and $276.72/MWh occurred on the 10th and 11th, respectively, primarily attributed to decreased availability of renewable generation. Hourly demands have remained within the same range as last week, reaching 11...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub futures for February dropped to an 18-month low of US$3.422/MMBtu on Wednesday, before climbing back up 20 cents to close at US$3.671/MMBtu. Colder weather forecasts for late January and early February have started to put upward pressure on prices, but the February contract has dropped over 60% from August 2022 highs. Unseasonably mild winter weather in North America and Europe has reduced heating demand, sending natural gas prices tumbling. The largest market uncertainty remains the r...

Mar 22, 2023 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss what to expect for gas prices in the week ahead. He says gasoline prices are in a “never-never land”, and crude is in “hover mode” due to Covid-related uncertainty in China. On the transition towards EVs, he says the government has to be able to have infrastructure in place for EV users to recharge quickly and efficiently. Click here to read the article on BN...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Happy déjà vu year from your fossil fuel friends! It’s déjà vu because there won’t be much of a change in short-term, refined product pricing when compared to the tempestuous pricing we all experienced in 2022. All the same players are seated at the metaphorical Texas Hold ‘em poker table that can sway short- and long-term price movements. On the domestic supply versus demand side, inventories of crude, gasolines, and distillates are still tight. ...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for January is currently $113.36/MWh. Relative to December’s month-end price of $319.34/MWh, this represents a decrease of $205.98/MWh or 64.5%. Volatility so far this month has been relatively minor, with only a few hourly periods settling over $300/MWh. With milder temperatures to start the year, compared to what was experienced in December, hourly demand is down; the month-to-date high is 11,168MW, whereas December peaked at 12,193MW, a ...

Mar 22, 2023 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures have tumbled to a ten-month low to start 2023, closing at US$3.988/MMBtu on Tuesday, January 3rd. A warmer-than-expected start to winter has helped ease natural gas demand fears and, as a result, prices have fallen below US$4/MMBtu for the first time since February 2022. The risk of volatility remains, however, once the cold weather returns and demand for liquified natural gas (LNG) exports increases. Uncertainly remains as to when Freeport’s LNG export termin...

Dec 23, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for December is currently $354.07/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $314.44/MWh, this represents an increase of $39.63/MWh or 12.6%. Pricing throughout the month has been volatile, with several days within the past week settling to over $700/MWh; prices on the 20th and 21st settled to $742.89/MWh and $701.54/MWh, respectively. Extensive cold periods continue to have an extreme impact on pricing, as parts of the province have felt like -30...

Dec 23, 2022 • 2 min read

2022 has been a turbulent year for natural gas markets, with prices this past summer reaching levels not seen since 2008. Key drivers have been the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the global energy crisis, which have exacerbated inflation, put increasingly heavy pressure on US LNG export demand, and essentially changed global energy trade for the foreseeable future. The shutdown of the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas, which has been offline since the explosion in June 2022 and kept ~2 Bcf/...

Dec 19, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss what to expect for gas prices in the week ahead. McKnight noted that as we wrap up 2022, people are staying closer to home and shopping online, resulting in gas pumps seeing less consumers. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Dec 19, 2022 • < 1 min read

Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Dec 16, 2022 • 2 min read

This week's puzzling questions are…What's in a name? What's in a number? The buzz topic in fossil fuel today is the leak at the Keystone XL pipeline (KXL), which is the heavy crude lifeline for the U.S. refining “Megatropolis” (my word!) on the Gulf coast. Lately I've been thinking the pipeline's name should be changed from Keystone to Headstone. In the past, a shut down like this would have caused panic attacks for the pin-striped crowds on Wall Street and spi...

Dec 16, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for December is currently $314.44/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $311.33/MWh, this represents a marginal increase of $3.11/MWh or 1%. Pricing throughout the month has been extremely volatile, with only 3 days settling at $100/MWh or less. Extensive cold periods caused an uptick in demand and contributed to higher pricing. In addition, renewable generation has continually fallen lower than expectations and electricity imports from BC an...

Dec 16, 2022 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures have been on a see-saw lately, with Henry Hub prompt-month futures up over 50 cents, trading at US$6.95/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT, Thursday afternoon. Prices dropped to a low of US$5.794/MMBtu on Friday, December 9th before pushing back up to a two-week high of US$7.10/MMBtu on Tuesday amid colder-than-usual weather concerns. A key uncertainty in the market remains as to when the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas, that has been offline since the explosion in June 2022, will ...

Dec 09, 2022 • 2 min read

Consumers are being given some early festive gifts this season, and that's the continuance of the freefall of gasoline and diesel prices. In the last five weeks, gasoline pump prices alone have fallen close to 50 cents per litre! But beware this freefall, because it may not be for long, and you may need to grab your parachute. Why do you say this Mr. Grinch? I say it because there should be an updraft on prices for the following reasons: Generally speaking, the global supply ...

Dec 09, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for December is currently $311.33/MWh. Relative to November's month end price of $191/MWh, this is an increase of $120.33/MWh or 63%. December has experienced significant volatility, as cold weather has attributed to reaching some of the highest hourly demand periods the province has experienced this year, with some occurring in the top five peak demands of the year so far. Minimal renewable generation during this elevated period of demand ha...

Dec 09, 2022 • 2 min read

Daily price swings continue, with the Henry Hub natural gas futures prompt month (Jan 2023) contract trading at US$6.10/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up over 30 cents from yesterday's close of US$5.723/MMBtu despite a lower-than-expected storage withdrawal. Natural gas is finding support on the back of temperature forecasts trending colder for the latter half of December. Natural gas futures have declined from the highs earlier this fall on news of further delays to the restart...

Dec 05, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss what to expect for gas prices in the week ahead. He sees gas prices falling in the near term but says heating oil and distillates could create challenges.

Dec 05, 2022 • < 1 min read

Dec 02, 2022 • 2 min read

You call it. Heads or tails? In today's petroleum-related energy markets, there are two sides to the short-term pricing coin flip: The global side, and the domestic. To say that prices recently have been volatile would be a laughable understatement. The wholesale price of gasoline fell 10 cents per litre (cpl) in the four-day period from November 25 to November 29 – only to bounce back up again 6 cpl in the two days from November 29 to December 1. Prices have been hopscotching a...

Dec 02, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for November settled to $191.00/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $184.88/MWh, this represents an increase of $6.12/MWh or 3.3%. Pricing in the province had gone through some flux in November, with earlier parts of the month experiencing significant volatility, followed by periods of low market settles. On the last 2 days of the month, there were significant shifts in pricing, with daily settles averaging $424.81/MWh and $360.48/MWh, occu...

Dec 02, 2022 • 3 min read

Henry Hub prompt month futures are holding below US$7/MMBtu, down US$0.378/MMBtu from a week earlier on reports of increased production and the likelihood the US railroad workers' strike will be averted again. US President Biden has called on Congress to block the railroad strike that could put the US economy at risk. A rail strike would impact coal supplies to US power plants, directly leading to increased natural gas demand. US dry gas production continues to strengthen, averaging 100.56 ...

Nov 25, 2022 • 2 min read

Pick a message, any message. Or choose a card, any card because right now, finding out where short-term fossil fuel prices are headed is more like picking the winning lottery ticket. Looking at the supply versus demand picture, where politics is not yet a measurable factor, prices should, I repeat, should be heading down. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report stated that there was a hefty 3.7 million-barrel draw on U.S. crude inventories, which makes sense as gasoline ...

Nov 25, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for November is currently $189.26/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $224.64/MWh, this represents a further decrease of $35.38/MWh or 15.7%. Periods of volatility have lessened, alongside more seasonal temperatures, with prices over the past week averaging just $108.17/MWh. Wind generation has been a steady source of generation in the province, with daily averages of over 40% of capacity. As a result, the province has been less reliant on ...

Nov 25, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for December rallied higher on Wednesday, to settle at US$7.31/MMBtu, up over 7% from Tuesday's close. With the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the market reacted to the EIA storage report that was released early, cooler weather forecasts, and the threat of a US railroad workers' strike, that was previously averted in September, starting as soon as December 5th. This would impact coal supplies to US power plants, directly leading to increased natural gas demand...

Nov 21, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg and shares his outlook for gasoline prices in the week ahead. McKnight says prices are falling in the short term as traders focus on demand factors like COVID lockdowns and recessionary fears instead of tight supplies. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Nov 21, 2022 • < 1 min read

Nov 18, 2022 • 2 min read

Everybody, start your engines because the race is on. The two racers are: Supply and demand, (disguised as low inventories), versus the economy. There aren't any cars in this race though, only diesel-powered trucks. The problem right now is, you can't start your engines if you can't find the fuel, and even if you find it, you can't afford it! A key factor here is: it's diesel that drives the economy, not gasoline. The inventory situation for U.S. distillates (...

Nov 18, 2022 • 3 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for November is currently $224.64/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $272.20/MWh, this represents a decrease of $47.56/MWh or 17.5%. Volatility was significant in the previous week, but prices have started to decline, no longer reaching the highs observed on the 8th and 9th. In fact, pricing over the past week has averaged $163.27/MWh, which has helped suppress the monthly price. Average hourly demand has also decreased week-over-week, as ...

Nov 18, 2022 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures continue to experience large daily price swings, with Henry Hub prompt-month futures trading at US$6.51/MMBtu as of 1:45pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up over 30 cents from yesterday's close of US$6.20/MMBtu. Despite news of the delayed restart of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas and warmer temperatures to start November, forecasts of colder winter weather and the ongoing energy crisis in Europe have pushed prices higher. Once the Freeport facility restarts, the risk o...

Nov 14, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss what to expect for gasoline prices in the week ahead. McKnight says diesel prices right now are stratospheric and not coming down any time soon. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Nov 11, 2022 • 3 min read

Natural gas futures have been extremely volatile, with Henry Hub prompt-month futures trading at US$6.19/MMBtu as of 3:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Prices dropped over 11% on Tuesday, to close at US$6.138/MMBtu, on forecasts for warmer weather and reports that the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas needs to push back its November restart date as it has not yet filed its return-to-service plan with federal regulators; an official statement has not been released by Freeport LNG. The potential for ...

Nov 11, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for November is currently $272.20/MWh. Relative to October's month-end price of $143.22/MWh, this is an increase of $128.98/MWh or 91%. Volatility over the past few days has been significant, as pricing for November 8th and 9th rank in the top 6 daily settles for 2022. A major contributing factor to this surge in pricing is an over-reliance on natural gas generation. While November was anticipated to see high levels of wind generation, this h...

Nov 11, 2022 • < 1 min read

Nov 07, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg and discusses how low diesel supplies mean Canada could see fuel rationed with preference given to hospitals, ambulance and fire trucks before other user categories. He also says the Prairies will get a break on gasoline prices in the week ahead as the region plays catch-up to the rest of the country. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Nov 04, 2022 • 2 min read

As the saying goes, “you can't roller-skate in a buffalo herd!” Truth! Lately, consumers are caught in an energy stampede. And political leaders, in this country and outside of our borders, all seem to have run for cover. On the North American domestic front, the supply/demand situation has been re-defined as a “bad to worse situation.” Despite politically influenced draws from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) designed to buffer gasoline prices before the November 8 midte...

Nov 04, 2022 • 2 min read

The price rollercoaster for natural gas continues, as markets closely watch near-term weather patterns. Henry Hub natural gas futures for December climbed over 60 cents on Monday, reversed on Tuesday, and then climbed back up 10% on Wednesday. Prompt-month futures have tumbled over 30 cents today, trading at US$5.89/MMBtu as of 3:15 EDT this afternoon. Market fundamentals remain tight as higher coal prices have increased demand for natural gas, and Freeport's liquified natural gas (LNG) exp...

Nov 04, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for October settled to $143.22/MWh, representing a 10.42/MWh or 6.7% drop compared to last week's month-to-date price of $153.64/MWh. Volatility remained minimal this past week, with only the last day of the month settling to $232.04/MWh, and the remaining days averaging $54.07/MWh. Market stability can be attributed to increased levels of wind generation, which averaged over 60% of its maximum capacity and lessened the grid's reliance o...

Oct 28, 2022 • 2 min read

As the guy in the old Midas Muffler TV commercial once said: “You can pay me now or pay me later.” Well, later is now when it comes to the diesel and heating oil market, and the consumer is only beginning to pay for it. In fact, we'll all be paying for it in the cost of anything shipped by the distillate family of refined products including diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel. The problem is, there isn't much left in the tank, and we have a long road of driving ahead of us this winter...

Oct 28, 2022 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures have been extremely volatile, with Henry Hub prompt-month futures holding below US$6/MMBtu after dropping ~50% to a seven-month low of US$4.959/MMBtu on Friday October 21st. Prices have fallen from the August highs as mild weather, record natural gas production and lower liquified natural gas (LNG) exports have allowed for larger-than-normal storage injections over the past month, increasing the amount of gas in storage before winter. Large daily price swings for natural gas ...

Oct 28, 2022 • 3 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for October is currently $153.64/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $181.28/MWh, this is a decrease of $27.64/MWh or 15.2%. Market volatility has been minimal over the past week, with a 7-day average price of $76.70/MWh. The past 5 days settled at less than $85/MWh, with a low of $36.57/MWh experienced on October 24th. Increased wind generation has been the primary reason for this price relief; we're seeing consistent wind generation,...

Oct 24, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International says low diesel inventories could lead to rationing in Quebec and the maritime provinces. He also said the prairies are getting hit hard on gas prices with what he says are astronomically high retail margins. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 21, 2022 • 3 min read

If you're in a race to a finish line, then you must be able to finish the race, right? It also really helps if you're on the right track. But in the case of the oil race, there are two finish lines: • The first will be in three weeks when the results of the U.S. midterms come in. • The second is in eight weeks when winter arrives and stays for three months. The common factor for both upcoming events the dangerously low supply of distillates, which now sit at a mere 106 million b...

Oct 21, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures continue to fall from the record highs in August 2022, reaching a three-month low on Wednesday. Prompt-month futures for November are trading at US$5.38/MMBtu as of 2:45pm EDT Thursday afternoon, down over $0.97 from a week earlier. Strong US gas production and reduced liquified natural gas (LNG) exports have narrowed the domestic storage deficit heading into the winter withdrawal season, putting downward pressure on prices. The EIA reports US dry gas production set...

Oct 21, 2022 • 3 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for October is currently $181.28/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $215.38/MWh, this a decrease of $34.10/MWh or 15.8%. While there have been bouts of volatility in the market, the Power Pool Price averaged $124.24/MWh in the last week, helping to reduce the month-to-date price from where it was to start October. Increases in renewable generation should continue to suppress market volatility and offset generator outages and/or demand incr...

Oct 17, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss what to expect for gas prices in the week ahead. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 14, 2022 • 3 min read

If it's fixable then the energy sector can usually fix it. This is particularly true when we look at the oft maligned refining industry; the ones who, like it or not, provide an essential cornerstone not only to this country's economy, but globally as well. For several reasons last week, there were a total of 13 refineries out of action in the U.S. Six in California, three in Washington, three on the Gulf and one in Ohio. As mentioned in last week's report, this caused pump ...

Oct 14, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures continue to hold below US$7/MMBtu, trading at US$6.71/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Strengthening US gas production and reduced LNG exports have contributed to robust storage injections, further reducing the storage deficit heading into the winter heating season. US dry gas production is estimated at 99.5 Bcf/d, with the EIA forecasting natural gas production to average 99.1 Bcf/d in the fourth quarter of 2022 and increase to average 99.6 Bcf/d in 2023....

Oct 14, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for October is currently $215.38/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $324.89/MWh, this a decrease of $109.51/MWh or 33.7%. Pricing over the past week has come down significantly, averaging $103.35/MWh, and with daily settles as low as $57.71/MWh and $69.86/MWh on the 10th and 12th, respectively. Both interties returned to full service, allowing the province to import less expensive electricity from Montana and BC, and lower hourly demand cu...

Oct 11, 2022 • 2 min read

Taking action Read full article here Consumers are concerned about Going Green, and so is business. But what does Going Green really mean for business? Of course it means reducing the impact your company has on the environment, but what are the implications for your industry? En-Pro works with manufacturers and businesses of all sizes to decipher everything from the relatively new and complicated world of carbon credits and trading – to penalties of non-compliance. There are...

Oct 11, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to cover gas prices from coast to coast in Canada. He says he expects even more pricing volatility in the next few weeks on the back of refinery issues, OPEC+ and the spread between the wholesale price of diesel and gasoline. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 06, 2022 • 3 min read

“Well, that sure was a short-sighted move.” That's my summation of President Joe Biden's response to the two million barrels per day crude oil production cut announced by none other than who he thought was his best new buddy, Saudi Arabia. “Oh, come on now OPEC guys, couldn't you just hold off on this until my mid-term coronation?” This move by the Saudis means that the U.S. will have to dip into the ever-evaporating Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), to prop up crude inv...

Oct 06, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures have rebounded, pushing back above US$7/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon, after falling to a near 12-week low of US$6.305/MMBtu on Monday. With power generation levels recovering from Hurricane Ian and cooler weather coming, prices are edging higher despite increased US production. High coal prices are elevating demand for gas-fired generation, which will keep competition tight between coal and gas this winter. It is expected the Freeport LNG export facilit...

Oct 06, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for October is currently $324.89/MWh. Relative to September's month-end price of $272.30/MWh, this is an increase of $52.59/MWh or 19.3%. Pricing is slightly over-inflated for the start of the month, as three days had market pricing settle to over $300/MWh; issues which occurred at the end of September had spilled into the start of this month. With above-seasonal temperatures and low renewable generation, supply remains tight. Furthermore, ou...

Oct 03, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to break down the discrepancy in gas prices across Canada. He says refineries put off maintenance in the spring to accommodate high margins and demand but they are now playing catch up. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 30, 2022 • 3 min read

I've got some good news and some bad news. The bad news is a new virus has emerged. The good news? It only affects analysts, like the writer of this report, who are burdened with, “making the call” on the prices of short, long, or any term forecasts of any or all fossil fuels! One of the symptoms of this new, AV (Analytical Virus), is a twitch that develops and then intensifies from slow news day Mondays to… “What the (expletive deleted) is going on?” Fridays. It seems that I, a...

Sep 30, 2022 • 2 min read

Prompt month has rolled over to November and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$6.75/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon, down over 20 cents from yesterday's close of US$6.955/MMBtu. Natural gas futures have fallen, as Hurricane Ida knocked out power to millions in Florida, cutting natural gas demand to produce electricity, and thanks to a larger-than-expected storage injection. US gas production continues to rise, with the EIA expecting US dry gas production to increase ...

Sep 30, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for September is currently $280.17/MWh, an increase of $12.80/MWh or 4.8% relative to last week's price of $267.31/MWh. Pricing is on track to beat August's price of $270.75/MWh, which would result in back-to-back record setting months. Grid alerts were experienced on both the 27th and 28th, in the early evening, where consumers were asked to reduce consumption to combat excess stress being placed on the grid. During these two days, pric...

Sep 23, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for October retreated below US$8/MMBtu the past few days, trading at $7.14/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. A triple-digit storage injection and strengthening US gas production, reaching a record level over 100 Bcf/d earlier this month, contributed to the pullback, along with yesterday's demand-destroying 0.75% interest rate hike by the US Fed – now US and Canada both sit at 3.25%. The risks of uncertainty and volatility persist, however, with the pos...

Sep 23, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for September is currently $267.31/MWh, a decrease of $29.90/MWh or 10.1% relative to last weeks' price of $297.21/MWh. While early parts of September experienced significant volatility, with multiple days settling over $200/MWh, the past few days have provided some price reprieve. Pricing averaged $168.10/MWh over the past 6 days and dropped to an average price of $139.06/MWh for the last 3 days. That said, market prices are finally trending...

Sep 20, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg and discusses at what Canadians can expect to pay for gasoline in the week ahead. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 16, 2022 • 2 min read

The autumnal equinox is just around the corner. That's when we have two moments in the year when the day and night are of equal length. Yes indeed, the end of summer and the start of fall. The first footsteps into winter. As far as the fossil fuel side of the energy index is concerned, this is not the time to go into hibernation. In fact, it's the opposite. The supply bear is grumpy and not ready for a long-term nap. We are in the middle of a Bermuda triangle of demand for gasol...

Sep 16, 2022 • 2 min read

Market volatility continues after Henry Hub futures spiked over 80 cents on Wednesday to close at US$9.114/MMBtu before tumbling over 7% today, trading at US$8.46/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon. The threat of a US railroad workers' strike impacting coal supplies to US power plants, directly leading to increased natural gas demand, was a major driver of the price rally this week. As reported, after 20 hours of intense contract talks, President Joe Biden's administration annou...

Sep 16, 2022 • 3 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for September is currently $297.21/MWh, an increase of $60.82/MWh or 25.7% relative to last week's price of $236.39/MWh. September has experienced some of the highest daily settles we've seen in the province, with prices of $534.25/MWh, $531.86/MWh and $763.72/MWh on the 12th, 13th and 14th, respectively. Pricing on the 14th was the highest daily settle in the past two decades. This week's volatility can be attributed to extremely l...

Sep 16, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst with En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to share his gas price forecast as summer driving season winds down. He says to expect gas prices to creep up as diesel prices increase and as we near the fall/winter cold snap. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 09, 2022 • 2 min read

Wait a minute! Maybe we're still in Kansas after all. Or maybe we never left, and it was all just a silly nightmare. It all started when crude hit $140/bbl earlier this year. Now it's at $83/bbl. And what about those pump prices? In June, the national average was $2.08/L., today it's 1.58/L. I guess those evil refiners must have got the message because their margins have fallen 17 cents per litre (cpl) from June's 52 cpl to the August average of 35 cpl. Now, with Labour...

Sep 09, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for October retreated the past few days, falling below US$8/MMBtu to close at US$7.842/MMBtu on Wednesday. US dry gas production continues to rise, reaching year-to-date highs in late August. As reported in the EIA September Short-Term Energy Outlook, US dry gas production is forecasted to average 99 Bcf/d in the fourth quarter of 2022, 4.7% more than the first quarter of 2022, and increase to average 100.4 Bcf/d in 2023. A drop in European natural gas prices and th...

Sep 09, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for September is currently $236.39/MWh. Relative to August's price of $270.75/MWh, this is a decrease of $34.36/MWh or 12.7%. While it's a slight reprieve to pricing experienced in August, September has already seen bouts of volatility on the 1st, 3rd, and 6th, with prices settling to $306.47/MWh, $297.96/MWh, and $381.83/MWh, respectively. The first few days of September continued to be plagued with lower amounts of renewable generation...

Sep 02, 2022 • 2 min read

I get the impression that our government's policies and plans concerning fossil fuel supply – that's gasoline, diesel, jet, bunker, and yes, even LNG – were inspired by a group of politicians just returning from another “Save the Planet convention”. Of course, the final step at the airport from these far-off extravagant places is, the curse of the luggage carousel! Round and round it goes, ever so slowly. Sometimes we see the same suitcase three or four times. Heck, who knows? They ...

Sep 02, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures continue to hold above US$9/MMBtu, trading at US$9.27/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Despite increasing US dry gas production levels in August, market analysts continue to monitor the energy crisis in Europe, assessing winter supply/demand risks. Increasing demand for US liquified natural gas (LNG) exports remain strong, amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions with Russia. Russian state-owned producer, Gazprom, has halted gas supplies to Europe on the Nor...

Sep 02, 2022 • 3 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for August settled to $270.75/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $264.35/MWh, this is an increase of $6.40/MWh or 2.4%. Month-end pricing for August 2022 is the highest the province has experienced in over 20 years; the previous record was set in October 2000, with a price of $261.52/MWh. August has been plagued with minimal wind generation, over reliance on natural gas generators, decreasing amounts of coal generation, and an extended hea...

Sep 02, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to talk about what consumers can expect at the pumps come September. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Aug 26, 2022 • 3 min read

In most parts of the country, this summer has been a hot one. In fact, heatwaves, droughts, and fires topped headlines across the globe. And as I understand it, the higher and longer the temperature goes, the less cognizant we are of cognizing! This is evident when we look at the latest comments of who I like to call, the “OPECian Carteliods,” also known as Saudi Arabia. In a moment of frustration, OPEC is opining that there is no longer a relation between the crude oil futures market price a...

Aug 26, 2022 • 3 min read

On August 12th, Europe reached its September 1st goal of filling their natural gas storage to 75% capacity. It has now upped its October 1st and November 1st goals to 85% and 95%, respectively. However, these targets may be harder to attain than the one already reached. Russian flows to the EU have been throttled down to 20% and Gazprom will be cutting off flows completely next week from August 31st to September 2nd as part of planned compressor station maintenance which will be carried out by S...

Aug 26, 2022 • 2 min read

The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is currently 8.6¢/kWh for the month of August – up 0.3¢/kWh or 3.5% versus last week's settle. The primary driver of this price hike is the increased use of expensive natural gas-burning generation, in response to an uptick in demand. Natural gas-burning supply increased by 3.4% (2,435MW) over the course of this past week, while baseload generation such as nuclear and hydro both lowered their output to an average of 10,265MW (-0.3%) an...

Aug 26, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss what Canadians can expect to pay at the gas pumps over the next week. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Aug 19, 2022 • 2 min read

Have we all yawned our way into complacency during these the dog days of summer? It's a suitable term for humans, and I know it makes sense to the canine community! With the driving season now in the sunset of high gasoline demand, and with pump and rack prices falling as a result, can we now go into coast mode? The real question is, why are prices falling, and do we really want to know the answer? They are falling because we are facing an inflation pandemic. According to those who...

Aug 19, 2022 • 2 min read

The EIA estimated working gas storage was 2,519 Bcf for the week ending August 12th, following an overall injection of 18 Bcf. The bullish build was below market expectations averaging 33 Bcf and significantly less than the five-year average injection of 47 Bcf. Storage levels are now 10.5% below year-ago levels and, relative to the five-year average, 12.7% less. The market is anticipating a build of 63 Bcf for the week ending August 19th. We should see prompt-month market prices drop a little n...

Aug 19, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for August is currently $221.87/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $159.88/MWh, this is an increase of $61.99/MWh or 38.7%. Price volatility has continued since picking up mid-month. The monthly price has continued to climb as every daily settle in the past week has surpassed $100/MWh, with daily prices of $487.90/MWh and $443.79/MWh occurring on the 15th and 16th, respectively. There was only one very short generator outage this week at P...

Aug 15, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at EN-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the potential record high gas prices Canadians could see this fall. McKnight believes that gas will go up in a slip stream as refineries start to slow down. He also notes that the short term prices are following a bouncing algorithm. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Aug 12, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures continue to soar despite a larger-than-expected US storage injection. Prompt-month futures are up over 9% from yesterday's close, trading at US$8.94/MMBtu as of 2:45pm EDT Thursday afternoon. US dry gas production has declined over the past few days, due to pipeline maintenance, after reaching a high of 98.3 Bcf/day on Monday. The ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas is leaving 2 Bdf/d in the US, but supply concerns p...

Aug 12, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for August is currently $159.88/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $80.48/MWh, this is an increase of $79.40/MWh or 98.7%. Volatility over the past week has increased dramatically from the start of the month. Consistent daily settles over $100/MWh have pushed the monthly price to where it currently stands, with daily prices of $345.97/MWh and $418.06/MWh on the 7th and 10th, respectively. Outages at several generators, including Genesee 2,...

Aug 09, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss what Canadians can expect to pay at the gas pumps in the week ahead. McKnight says that although prices across Canada are set to fall next week, this is happening for negative reasons as demand slows and could be troubling for the economy in the months ahead. He talks on how refiners are benefitting with high profit margins and recommends Canadians fill up on low gas while they can. Click here to read...

Aug 08, 2022 • < 1 min read

Gas expert Roger McKnight predicts an average Saturday gas price in the GTA of around $1.68 per litre. Click here to read the article on Toronto Star.

Aug 05, 2022 • 2 min read

Better grab it while you can, before it slips through your fingers! The euphoria is contagious. In some areas of the country, gasoline pump prices have fallen 12 cents per litre in one week, and we are seeing the lowest prices in four months! So, what's going on? Have the oil companies given up? Will the road tax breaks continue? Are the consumers the victors? Have the efforts by President Joe Biden to increase the supply of crude been the key factor in the drop on prices? Sorry to...

Aug 05, 2022 • 2 min read

2022 has been a year of volatility and this week was no exception to the trend! Henry Hub natural gas futures tumbled 7% on Tuesday, to close at US$7.706/MMBtu on reports of rising US dry gas production reaching levels of 97 Bcf/d, before jumping 7.3% yesterday afternoon to close at US$8.266/MMBtu after the news release that the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas had reached an agreement with the U.S. Pipeline Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), allowing its operations to resum...

Aug 05, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for August is currently $80.48/MWh. Relative to July's month end price of $147.84/MWh, this is a decrease of $67.36/MWh or 45.6%. Renewable generation, especially wind, has been a constant presence so far this month which has helped to suppress the Power Pool price. In contrast to the end of July, where we experienced numerous and consistent days of volatility, wind generation was minimal. Generators we saw offline last week have since been r...

Jul 29, 2022 • 3 min read

Well, that's all gone and forgotten now. Yes, as far as the refining industry is concerned, this summer is now history, and you can forget the driving season, too. The focus has now turned to the upcoming winter and heating season. But before we go down that bumpy road, I must point out that the refiners are weeping with joy while consumers are just plain weeping from the pain at the pump. Last week we looked at the refining margins, which have hit the stratosphere – jumping in ...

Jul 29, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for July is currently $133.42/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $119.80/MWh, this is an increase of $13.62/MWh or 11.4%. Hourly demand remained similar week-over-week, with peak demand of 11,097MW on July 27th at 5pm MST. Daily prices increased steadily throughout the week, reaching $318.39/MWh on the 27th. Hourly volatility was also present, with prices reaching as high as $730.42/MWh on July 26th at 8pm MST. Regarding generator outages,...

Jul 29, 2022 • 2 min read

Prompt month has rolled over to September and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$8.24/MMBtu as of 2:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon, down over 30 cents from yesterday's close of US$8.554/MMBtu. Natural gas futures surged on Tuesday, reaching a 14-year high of US$9.752/MMBtu, as extreme heat has caused US power demand to reach all-time highs this summer. Record coal prices and global supply uncertainty remains as Russia has cut gas supplies to Europe to 20% of capacity, further cont...

Jul 22, 2022 • 2 min read

Has the fossil fuel industry finally been fossilized? How much time does the most important cog in our economic wheel have, and what are the options for consumers? In other words, where's the horse for this cart? If the plan is to make gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel so expensive that using these commodities in our daily lives is cost prohibitive, then the powers that be are succeeding. It is obvious to me that the current federal leadership has little to no interest in the oil indu...

Jul 22, 2022 • 2 min read

The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 5.6¢/kWh so far for the month of July, representing a 0.5¢/kWh or 8.9% increase over last week's settle. The primary driver of this uptick in price is the increased use of demand response generators which are typically expensive natural gas-burning ones. Natural gas-burning supply increased by 10.8% (2,291MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear, picked back up, increasing its output to...

Jul 22, 2022 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures soared to a five-week high on Wednesday, to close at US$8.007/MMBtu, as record-breaking heat and supply concerns in Europe continue to increase demand. Prompt-month futures are up US$1.318/MMBtu from last week and US$4.131/MMBtu from a year earlier. Hot summer weather forecasts for the rest of July and early August will keep power burn demand for natural gas strong, as near-record-high coal prices make it uneconomical for natural gas-to-coal switching. Russia has resumed send...

Jul 15, 2022 • 2 min read

Phew! It looks like we got through that one! It also looks like the pump price panic has been wrestled into submission. But thanks to who or what? Certainly not all provinces were proactive in reducing road taxes, albeit for a period of “un-certaintude,” that will certainly come back and bite us in one way or another. This contrasts with our inactive federal leadership who seem more interested in catching the next plane to the next summit of summiteers. The federal excise tax remains...

Jul 15, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for July is currently $119.36/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $89.97/MWh, this is an increase of $29.39/MWh or 32.7%. Hourly demand in the province has continued to increase, with a week-over-week uptick of 179MW or 1.9%. In fact, last week experienced some of the highest hourly demand periods we have seen since late March, reaching as high as 11,183MW on July 12th at 6pm MST. Heat warnings in parts of the province, alongside Calgary St...

Jul 15, 2022 • 3 min read

Widespread heat in the US has boosted power demand to record levels, pushing Henry Hub natural gas futures to three-week highs, trading at US$6.77/MMBtu as of 12:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. The front-month contract is up over 75% since the start of 2022, alongside strong demand for US liquified natural gas (LNG) exports. Gas prices in Europe are trading around US$54/MMBtu, a four-month high, while gas prices in Asia are currently US$39/MMBtu. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estim...

Jul 08, 2022 • 2 min read

Have we turned the tables on the oil industry? Have we intimidated them just enough to get them to lower gasoline and diesel prices? Have we forced them to crater pump prices by 15 cents per litre? Have our government leaders led this crusade? You mean to tell me that there is a Santa Claus, and that he or she is elected?! Or are the latest gas price plunges we've seen at the pumps lately not due to any of the above; and the tables are just more props in the political game of musical cha...

Jul 08, 2022 • 2 min read

Market volatility continues, with Henry Hub futures dropping over a dollar last Thursday, June 30th to close at US$5.424/MMBtu after a US pipeline safety regulator found unsafe conditions at the Texas Freeport liquified natural gas (LNG) export facility. US regulators want Freeport LNG to take corrective action after the June 8th explosion and fire and will not allow the plant to restart until an outside analysis is completed. Freeport LNG hopes to resume partial service in October and full serv...

Jul 08, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for July is currently $89.97/MWh. Relative to June's month end price of $130.49/MWh, this is a decrease of $40.52/MWh or 31%. Hourly demand, on the other hand, increased relative to last month, by 283MW or 3.1%. While an uptick in demand typically has adverse effects on pricing, volatility has been minimal over the past week, mostly attributed to minimal outages and increased levels of renewable generation. The only major outage occurred at S...

Jul 04, 2022 • 2 min read

Prompt month has rolled over to August and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$5.91/MMBtu as of 11:45pm EDT Thursday morning, down over 50 cents from yesterday's close of US$6.498/MMBtu. Two back-to-back bearish storage builds have sent natural gas futures tumbling, as the extended outage at Freeport LNG export terminal is keeping 2.0 Bcf/d of liquified natural gas supplies in the US despite strong global LNG demand. Even still, supply concerns remain as hot summer weather will ...

Jul 04, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for June is currently $130.43/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $137.78/MWh, this is a decrease of $7.35/MWh or 5.3%. A further increase in hourly demand of 70MW or 0.7% did not have a direct impact on pricing this week. In fact, last week's price averaged $108.06/MWh, which helped suppress the monthly price. Still, volatility occurred on the 23rd and the 27th, with pricing averaging $199.53/MWh and $163.25/MWh, respectively. Convers...

Jun 30, 2022 • < 1 min read

The combination of a 5.7 cent per litre cut in the Ontario gas tax effective Friday July 1 and a fall in the US cash futures prices today means that pump prices should fall by 11 cents per litre on Friday, July 1 – Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst Click here to read the article on The Globe and Mail.

Jun 27, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg for an outlook on this week's gasoline prices. He says that Canadians are starting to factor fuel prices into their driving habits. He also said that refining margins have increased as gasoline prices in Canada continue to be driven by the U.S. market. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Jun 24, 2022 • 2 min read

As our federally elected politicians prepare for their summer break (from what exactly, you may ponder), and then return to their toils in September – I would like to take the opportunity to announce a new holiday in their honour. It's called, “Don't Worry, be Happy Day!” This is because there is nothing to worry about so, ya know, just be happy! How can we be happy that inflation is just a three-syllable word, even though it is approaching a three-digit range of surreal level...

Jun 24, 2022 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures have retreated to an eleven-week low, with Henry Hub natural gas futures for July trading at US$6.26/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Futures have fallen over 28% from the high of US$9.66/MMBtu on June 8th before the Freeport liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminal explosion. With the Freeport shutdown expected to last three months, it has reduced the amount of LNG exports to Europe, assisting to boost domestic storage inventories before the winter withdrawal se...

Jun 24, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for June is currently $137.78/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $136.64/MWh, this is a marginal increase of $1.14/MWh or 0.8%. Hourly demand also rose, by 83MW or 0.9%, but volatility on the 16th and 17th was the main cause of the uptick in monthly pricing. The average 2-day price was $255.30/MWh, with daily price settlements of $373.40/MWh and $138.82/MWh, respectively. Outages at Keephills 2, Battle River 4 and Path 2 intertie, as well ...

Jun 17, 2022 • 3 min read

Nothing lets the air out of a politician's balloon faster than the sight of inflation rocketing skyward. Of course, a key ingredient in this economic mess we find ourselves in is the cost of energy of all forms. Energy is the easiest target because it's the most visible, and the energy sector includes petroleum, which just happens to be an invaluable source of tax revenue for the politicians. Those politicians are now attacking this same cash cow to address the inflation question, h...

Jun 17, 2022 • 2 min read

Despite record-breaking heat in the Western US, news that Freeport's LNG export terminal in Texas won't resume partial operations for three months sent Henry Hub prompt-month natural gas futures tumbling nearly 17% on Tuesday to close at US$7.189/MMBtu. Following the explosion on June 8th, it was speculated the liquefaction facility's ~2 Bcf/day of LNG export capacity would be stranded for just three weeks but reports now state that full operations won't resume until “late 20...

Jun 17, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for June is currently $136.64/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $156.61/MWh, the month-to-date average price dropped $19.97/MWh or 12.8%, despite an uptick in hourly demand of 105MW or 1.2%. Helping to suppress pricing was significant solar generation and wind generation averaging over 70% of capacity. Late week generator outages at Battle River 4, Sheerness 2 and HR Milner did place some upward pressure on pricing. In addition, on the 13...

Jun 13, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, tells BNN Bloomberg that current high gas prices are a result of a supply and demand imbalance. He says gas prices won't retreat any time soon unless demand suddenly evaporates, or if governments adjust the HST. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Jun 10, 2022 • 3 min read

I was going to initiate this week's dissertation with the rhetorical question: “I've got good news and bad news, which do you want first?” For this week's report, I had to make a minor correction, and changed it to, “I've got bad news and not so bad news.” Maybe you don't want either? In keeping with these popular sayings, these options are offered to the battered fossil fueled consumer who may just forget about the glass being half full or half empty and just throw o...

Jun 10, 2022 • 2 min read

An explosion yesterday afternoon at Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas sent Henry Hub prompt-month natural gas futures tumbling, dropping almost 60 cents to close at US$8.699/MMBtu. Prior to the incident, July futures hit a mid-day high of US$9.664/MMBtu, as hot temperatures in the Southern US increased cooling demand. Any fundamentals-based forecast has been out of step with the current market, as the summer market has been fully wrapped in a technical rally that, to fizzle out, was waiting ...

Jun 10, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for June is currently $156.61/MWh. Relative to May's month-end price of $121.84/MWh, this results in an increase of $34.77/MWh or 28.5%. Extreme bouts of volatility have caused elevated levels of month-to-date pricing, with 3 days settling above $190/MWh, on the 1st, 2nd and 7th. Demand has not been a driving force, as average hourly demand has dropped by 200MW or 2.2%. The main causes for the surge in pricing are elevated natural gas prices ...

Jun 06, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg for a look ahead to gas prices in Canada over the coming week. He says low diesel inventories in the U.S. will relentlessly push up the cost of delivering goods, which will be passed along to the consumer. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Jun 03, 2022 • 3 min read

These days it seems like we're driving with the brakes on. How can we trust, or even believe, the political drivers of our economy when they keep screaming with wide-eyed fanaticism, “Net Zero 2050! Net Zero 2050!”? Will this happen overnight, as so many of them seem to believe? It could be possible if all fossil fuels were fossilized back to extinction! So just do that. Nike up for goodness' sake! Just do it! Let's shut down the Enbridge Line 5 now as Gretc...

Jun 03, 2022 • 2 min read

The rally continues this week, as Henry Hub natural gas futures for July are trading at US$8.63/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Early summer heat set a May record for power demand in Texas, burning more natural gas to generate electricity due to high coal prices and minimal wind power. The demand for US liquified natural gas (LNG) remains strong with high global prices, and the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants has risen to average ...

Jun 03, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for May settled at $121.84/MWh; relative to last week's price of $121.08/MWh, this represents a minor increase of $0.76/MWh or 0.6%. Prices were trending down in earlier parts of the week, where prices averaged $77.71/MWh between the 28th and 30th, with minimal market volatility and off-peak pricing settling to sub $60/MWh. Prices then spiked to $243.31/MWh on May 31st, which increased the Power Pool price over the past week from $101.69/MWh ...

May 30, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International suggests that capping the HST is a simple way to help consumers. He also says that diesel drivers will start to see some relief at the pumps. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

May 27, 2022 • 2 min read

I can't figure out if I'm reaching – or I've already reached the age where I am repeating myself to make sense of something – or maybe I've developed a stutter when it comes to orating on energy questions? This affliction is especially evident when asked to comment on the short, medium, and dare I say, long-term forecasts for gasoline and diesel prices. As we are about to cross the Rubicon into the land of the driving season, the pricing landscape has a few twists and ...

May 27, 2022 • 1 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures have surged past US$9/MMBtu, reaching the highest level since 2008 amid supply concerns. Natural gas prices have tripled over the past year alongside the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict, which is impacting global energy markets, strong demand for US liquified natural gas (LNG) exports, weak storage injections and the start of summer cooling demand. US dry natural gas production is hovering around 94 Bcf/d, below the 97 Bcf/d level needed to significantly reduce the...

May 27, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $121.08/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $124.26/MWh, this results in a minor decrease of $3.18/MWh or 2.6%. Hourly average demand in the province stayed flat week-over-week and had no bearing on price direction. Over the past week, we did see an increase in the number of off-peak hours settling below the $60/MWh mark. While the week prior only saw 6 periods during which off-peak prices settled below this mark, this ...

May 24, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomber says that people have few alternatives for travel in Canada and will continue to rely on their cars. He also says that declines in gasoline inventories and refined oil reserves will keep gasoline prices high. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

May 19, 2022 • 3 min read

Being stuck at a railway crossing gives you time to think and count, but not necessarily in that order. So, the other day I started counting the tanker cars hauling Alberta crude to where I assumed was Montreal and points further east. When the final car passed, a thought struck me that this was a good way to try to understand the pricing configuration that goes into the current pricing prism (or prison) that we see at the pumps today. The price of a litre of gasoline, diesel, or any road tra...

May 19, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures continue to push above US$8/MMBtu, trading at US$8.41/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Futures are up over 100% since the beginning of the year, as European demand for US liquified natural gas (LNG) remains strong alongside global prices, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. Other key drivers include production challenges, both domestically and globally, and hot summer forecasts raising supply adequacy concerns for next winter. US futures are sti...

May 19, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $124.26/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $126.78/MWh, this results in a price decrease of $2.52/ MWh or 2%. Hourly average demand in the province saw a marginal increase of 50MW or 0.6%. Over the past week, we have seen off-peak pricing dip below the $80/MWh average we've been accustomed to in May, with prices settling in the $60/MWh range. This decrease in off-peak pricing has helped smooth some of the volatili...

May 16, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg and talks about gasoline prices in the week ahead and says drivers might have to wait for a while until they can see some relief at the pumps. He says with Canadians stuck inside for years during the COVID-19 pandemic, many individuals aren't letting these higher prices hold them back and they're still getting out on the road. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

May 13, 2022 • 3 min read

Memorable lines from forgettable movies make sense when trying to understand today's energy maze. One that springs to mind is, “if you build it, they will come.” This, from the baseball themed Field of Dreams. The message was, as I interpreted it, if you make something that people want, they will go to extremes to get it. Dreaming is what consumers of all stripes must do now as prices for all forms of fossil fuels are rapidly slipping out of reach. But in my cynical mind, wasn't ...

May 13, 2022 • 3 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures have been volatile this week, dropping over US$1/MMBtu on Monday to close at US$7.026/MMBtu, as US dry gas production increased to an estimated 95.4 Bcf/d (close to 2022 highs) and recession fears influenced the market. Natural gas prices rebounded from Monday's sell-off, with Henry Hub prompt-month futures trading at US$7.73/MMBtu as of 1:45pm EDT Thursday afternoon amid supply concerns. Threats of interrupted Russian gas flows to Europe, unsteady US dry gas p...

May 13, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $126.78/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $118.80/MWh, this results in a price increase of $7.98/MWh or 6.7%. Hourly average demand in the province saw a marginal increase of 70MW or 0.85%, with elevated off-peak prices limiting low demand period discounts. This is primarily due to high natural gas prices in the province, in addition to increased volatility associated with lower levels of wind and solar generation. In...

May 09, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg and takes a closer look at what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. He says it's not just crude oil that's causing pump prices to jump. He points to soaring diesel prices that are pulling gasoline costs. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

May 06, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures have soared over US$8/MMBtu, trading at US$8.63/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Futures have rallied this week, reaching the highest level since 2008 amid the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict, which is impacting global energy markets. Supply concerns persist, as domestic power burn demand is set to increase with warm summer weather, and robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe and Asia remain steady. US dry natural gas production is increasing...

May 06, 2022 • 3 min read

This year, it may be high gas prices that make us shelter in place – not the pandemic. The inflationary wave that is flooding consumers' economic boats has changed from a ripple to a tsunami. The most visible and wallet sensitive factor in the spiraling cost equation is the price of energy in general and fossil fuels in particular. With gasoline pump prices now approaching the $2.00/L level and even humble diesel surpassing premium 94 octane pricing some, if not all consumers, must be...

May 06, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $118.80/MWh. Relative to April's month-end price of $117.21/MWh, this represents a marginal price increase of $1.59/MWh or 1.4%. Hourly average demand in the province has dropped by 454MW or 4.7% and, while this should typically reduce volatility, elevated levels of baseload pricing continue to keep off-peak pricing high. In Q1 2022, pricing between the hours of midnight and 7am MST averaged $59.43/MWh, whereas the month-...

May 02, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN for a closer look at what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Apr 29, 2022 • 2 min read

Prompt month has rolled over to June and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$7.03/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon, down over 30 cents from yesterday's close of US$7.339/MMBtu. Natural gas futures surged on Wednesday, as global supply uncertainty remains after Russian announced it was cutting off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. Gazprom, Russia's state-owned energy firm, halted gas supplies for failing to pay for gas in rubles. Geopolitical tensions con...

Apr 29, 2022 • 2 min read

While our environment wardens and political pontificators perform their carbon calculus gymnastics to determine how this country can save the planet with its main weapon, a moving target called the carbon tax, may I suggest both groups jump into a tractor trailer hauling produce to their local grocery store and see how much it costs to perform this essential service? While gasoline supply and demand are the media darlings now, it is diesel that is the workhorse and the indicator of the health...

Apr 29, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $114.31/MWh, staying relatively flat with a marginal week-over-week decrease of $0.90/MWh or 0.8%. Pricing over the past week averaged $111.66/MWh, which is mostly due to elevated levels of baseload pricing. The province typically sees prices fall between $35-60/MWh during off-peak hours, but this price shifted and constantly settled near the $90/MWh mark. Despite a slight 0.6% drop in demand, intermittent outages at HR Miln...

Apr 26, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg and says gasoline prices are set to rise across the country, and it's not just due to the supply-demand imbalance of crude oil. He says the switch from winter to summer blends of gasoline is fuelling the climb in pump prices. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Apr 22, 2022 • 2 min read

When you think there's no more meat on the bone well then, it may be true, there's no more meat on the bone. If you thought that gasoline and diesel prices had reached their “apeximy” (my word), then go to the back of the class because prices continued to increase this past week in parts of the country, due to a formulation change as insisted upon by the “environmental assembly” – with no objection from our obedient politicians. I am referring to the magical transition from win...

Apr 22, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $115.21/MWh, representing a 0.8% decrease from last week's month-to-date price. Unrelated to flat demand, and aided by minimal and inconsistent wind generation, April continues to see pricing consistently over $100/MWh. On the 14th, the lowest hourly price was $100.69/MWh at 12pm MST, while prices reached a high of $332.11/MWh on the 15th; the resulting two-day average price was $162.29/MWh. Intermittent outages at seve...

Apr 22, 2022 • 2 min read

The price rollercoaster for natural gas continues, as Henry Hub natural gas futures for May spiked to over US$8.00/MMBtu on Monday. Prices sharply retreated mid-week, closing at US$6.937/MMBtu on Wednesday, April 20th. Prompt-month futures have tumbled another 10 cents, trading at US$6.83/MMBtu as of noon EDT Thursday. The pullback and start of the price correction was expected alongside forecasts for increased US dry gas production in the upcoming months, a sign of loosening supply/demand funda...

Apr 14, 2022 • 2 min read

It's all a coin toss! But what's tougher – predicting where diesel and gasoline prices are going to go anytime soon, or explaining why they're as high as they are? In the not too distant and sane past, making the call on short-term pricing patterns was somewhat straightforward; a matter of deciding which of the 16 factors that go into the pricing mechanics of transportation fuels are the dominant ones. Indeed, those were the days when an increase of 2 cents per litre (cpl) a...

Apr 14, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $114.26/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $93.54/MWh, we've seen a $20.72/MWh or 22.1% price increase. There were a few days of volatility over the past week, most notably on April 7th and 13th, where pricing averaged $200.05/MWh and $153.43/MWh, respectively. Volatility on the 7th carried over from the night prior, where prices between 8pm and midnight MST averaged $456.79/MWh. At 7am MST on the 7th, prices pe...

Apr 14, 2022 • 3 min read

Natural gas futures continue to soar, pushing above US$7/MMBtu and reaching highs not seen since 2008. Henry Hub spot market prices have also climbed, with daily prices closing as high as US$6.57/MMBtu, close to the US$6.70/MMBtu daily high of last Fall. The 30-day average spot price is also within pennies, but not yet above, the Fall 2021 30-day average high of US$5.53/MMBtu. Colder-than-normal temperatures, relatively flat production, storage deficits well below historical averages, and rising...

Apr 11, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, discusses what Canadians can expect to see for gasoline prices in the week ahead. McKnight says there is a lag in gasoline prices following oil's lower levels, and notes that high gasoline demand as of late is noticeably slowing. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Apr 08, 2022 • 1 min read

Roger McKnight summarizes the current market drivers for gasoline prices. Pump prices may go into hover mode but for how long? There was an increase of 2.4 million barrels in crude this week, but levels are still 14% below the 5-year average. Gasoline inventories remain basically flat, which is good, and refineries are now cranking up to prep for the summer driving season with the critical Gulf Coast family of refineries running now at 95% capacity. All this supports flat to lower prices in...

Apr 08, 2022 • 3 min read

I recently took a crash course called, Bucket Lists for Dummies. My preliminary list included meeting the guy/person who came up with the idea and ultimate design of the unicycle. Requirement number one is, I guess, to have a really good sense of balance if you plan to get anywhere on this thing without ending up in a hospital. Let's play jump the metaphor. It is painfully obvious that when it comes to the petroleum industry our politicians are still trying to find the training wheels...

Apr 08, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $93.54/MWh. Relative to March's month-end price of $75.94/MWh, this represents a price increase of $17.60/MWh or 23.2%. Pricing for the first five days of April averaged $80.99/MWh, with volatility beginning on April 6th, with a daily average of $156.35/MWh, and a price peak of $718.47/MWh at midnight MST. This elevated price was primarily caused by minimal wind generation during the hours of 8pm to midnight, as the pro...

Apr 08, 2022 • 2 min read

Market volatility continues this week, with Henry Hub natural gas futures surging to a high of US$6.394/MMBtu yesterday, and with futures through February 2023 all trading above US$6/MMBtu. Henry Hub prompt-month futures are trading at US$6.28/MMBtu as of 12:45pm EDT Thursday afternoon, as supply concerns and strong demand put upward pressure on prices. Forecasts for more natural gas used for power generation and US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs are key factors driving pr...

Apr 04, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, talks about what consumers can expect to pay at the pumps in the week ahead. He says supply was already tight before Russia's attack on Ukraine, and how he doesn't see any relief coming until the later half of June. He also says despite the federal government raising its carbon tax today, the impact it will have on gas prices has been somewhat blunted due to U.S. President Joe Biden's SPR release. Click here to read ...

Apr 01, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight explains the drop in gas prices over the coming days in Calgary and Vancouver. Click here to read the article on CityNews.

Apr 01, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight summarises what's really behind skyrocketing gas prices, how high they could go, and if is there anything anyone can do to bring them back down. Click here to read the article on The Big Story.

Apr 01, 2022 • 2 min read

Making a problem more difficult doesn't make it easier to solve. It compounds the problem. Some of the political decisions being made these days are confounding today's consumer – and this writer is one of them. With the Ukraine conflict now approaching 40 days, and Europe now becoming desperate for an immediate alternative supplier of crude oil and, more importantly, natural gas, what can Canada do to help? Tell the U.S. to help them? They certainly can. We certainly cannot. ...

Apr 01, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for March is currently $75.67/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $74.31/MWh, this is a marginal price increase of $1.36/MWh or 1.8%. Pricing for the past week averaged $80.33/MWh, with volatility occurring on the 28th and 29th, resulting in average daily prices of $111.19/MWh and $128.27/MWh, respectively. Weekly pricing peaked at $291.91/MWh on March 29th at 8pm MST, alongside a drop in renewable (wind and solar) supply. Hourly demand so ...

Apr 01, 2022 • 2 min read

Prompt month has rolled over to May and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$5.75/MMBtu as of 1:45pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up over 14 cents from yesterday's close of US$5.605/MMBtu. Despite US liquified natural gas (LNG) exports being capped by existing LNG capacity, North American markets continue to rally from geopolitical influences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, rather than US natural gas fundamentals. As reported in Bloomberg News, "President Vladimir said Russia will...

Mar 28, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, says most cities will see gas prices fall in the week ahead. He also talks about the Albertan government pausing the collection of its provincial fuel tax next week, but he says it will most likely come back once oil prices are under control. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Mar 25, 2022 • 3 min read

In this week's En-Pro Petroleum Report, I'd like to share with you a Q&A interview I did with a concerned consumer about fossil fuels. These are some of my answers to questions I believe many others have for the oil industry and politicians. For the latter, my advice is, ignoring a problem doesn't make it go away; and re-naming a tax doesn't make it go away either. Q: Do you expect fuel prices to continue to rise due to the war in Ukraine? If so, how high? A: The lo...

Mar 25, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for March is currently $74.31/MWh; compared to last week's price of $79.29/MWh, prices this week have experienced a decrease of $4.98/MWh or 6.2%. Pricing over the past week has averaged $64.70/MWh, with minimal periods of volatility resulting from decreased periods of demand in the province. While there were several hours in the past week in which pricing peaked over $100/MWh, the highest we saw the price escalate to was $236.26/MWh on March...

Mar 25, 2022 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures have continued their upward momentum this week, pushing above US$5/MMBtu to close at a six-week high of US$5.232/MMBtu on Wednesday. Despite a bearish storage report, Henry Hub prompt-month futures are still trading higher at US$5.38/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT. Weather patterns and robust demand for US liquified natural gas (LNG) exports have been the key drivers impacting upward price movement. Concerns of cooler weather remaining through early April, and the potential for a hot...

Mar 21, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, talks about what Canadians can expect to pay at the pumps in the week ahead. He says while oil prices are lower, there's still going to be a price spike in gasoline as wholesale costs are continuing to climb. He says while the IEA suggests reducing speed limits on highways could help save on oil consumption, he doesn't think that would go over well with consumers who are eager to finally leave their house after years of C...

Mar 18, 2022 • 2 min read

As philosopher and major league ball catcher Yogi Berra once quipped, “It ain't over till it's over.” The painful game being played in today's energy markets is far from over also, as no one seems to know, or even wants to know, the rules. I find it difficult to fathom how the price of crude can fall from $140/bbl to $97/bbl over a five-day period. The consumer is getting awfully twitchy when pump prices swing 19 cents per litre in one week. As you know, prices spiked immedi...

Mar 18, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for March is currently $79.29/MWh; relative to last week's price of $88.82/MWh, this is a decrease of $9.53/MWh or 10.7%. Minimal market volatility over the past week helped to suppress pricing, as prices averaged $64.49/MWh with only four hourly periods in the week settling above $100/MWh. Demand in the province also declined slightly, similar to Power Pool prices, decreasing by 159MW or 1.5%. Warmer weather over the past week helped curb so...

Mar 18, 2022 • 3 min read

Last week was CERAWeek in Houston – an annual oil and gas industry conference put on by S&P Global. US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, John Kerry's speech usually opens up the event; this year he wasn't exclusively talking about how oil and gas companies should pivot and go green. No, this year it was he who pivoted and spoke about how the US natural gas industry shall play a pivotal role in transitioning the world to clean energy by exporting natural gas to more countries in t...

Mar 14, 2022 • < 1 min read

Mar 11, 2022 • 2 min read

Leaders of the western world have finally picked up the bottle they found on their political beaches to read the message from Ukraine, then belatedly decided to help the country out with a message in a barrel to the Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Now, U.S. President Biden, the world's largest producer and consumer of all fossil fuels, announced a ban on the import of all Russian energy commodities. One would think that this would result in a tympanic economic drum roll that would beat th...

Mar 11, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for March is currently $88.82/MWh. Relative to February's month-end price of $107.26/MWh, this is a decrease of $18.44/MWh or 17.2%. Month-to-date, we've only experienced two days of volatility, on the 2nd and 3rd, with a two-day average price of $165.38/MWh. Price volatility began at 10am MST and lasted throughout most of each day, as demand remained around 10,700MW until later parts of the evening. Minimal wind generation was also a fa...

Mar 11, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for April are trading at US$4.63/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up 11 cents from yesterday's close of US$4.526/MMBtu. Demand for US liquified natural gas (LNG) exports remain robust, with volumes near capacity as the Russian-Ukraine conflict continues. As reported in the EIA March Short-Term Energy Outlook, it is estimated US LNG exports will average 11.3 Bcf/d in 2022, up 16% from 2021. The EIA forecasts natural gas production to continue to increa...

Mar 07, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, talks about what Canadians can expect to pay at the pumps in the week ahead. He says there's a perfect storm for high gasoline prices right now with U.S. oil inventories continuing to fall, climbing demand for gas and Russia's attack on Ukraine all pushing up pump costs. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Mar 04, 2022 • 2 min read

Are we there yet? Can we just turnaround and go back? These are questions being asked with the “out of this world” prices we are seeing for all transportation fuels but especially for gasoline, the politically sensitive prima donna of fossil fuels. Have pump and rack prices been ‘Putinized,' and is he the sole reason for the price spikes? Even before the invasion on Ukraine, and as I have written about in previous En-Pro Energy reports, U.S. inventories of crude and refined product...

Mar 04, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for February settled at $107.26/MWh, a slight decrease of $6.53/MWh or 5.7% relative to last week. To round out the end of the month, pricing from the 24th to 28th averaged $77.36/MWh, which helped to suppress the monthly price. Demand levels remained flat in the province and, while there were several intermittent generator outages, most of them only occurred for a few hours. Multi-day outages took place at Battle River 4 & 5 and Sundance 6, with ...

Mar 04, 2022 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for April are trading at US$4.75/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon, as cold weather forecasts for mid-March and the ongoing geopolitical instability have put upward pressure on futures prices. Liquified natural gas (LNG) exports remain strong, as robust demand from Europe could intensify with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That said, US LNG export plants are running close to full utilization, limiting the ability to increase LNG exports. Market analysts be...

Feb 28, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, discusses what Canadians can expect to be paying at the gas pumps this weekend. McKnight says there's nowhere for gas prices to go but up, with current geopolitical concerns sparked by the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushing up supply concerns. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Feb 25, 2022 • 2 min read

I've always said, ‘never trust someone who wears night vision glasses during the day – or night!' For this report, I will dispense with the hand wringing on supply and demand, and how it affects your rack or pump price. Having said that, I will diplomatically reverse course by also saying that the overall supply and demand picture is still a major factor in the end price of refined products. But now it's all about the supply that has taken over control because we are losing ...

Feb 25, 2022 • 1 min read

As a result of colder weather in Alberta, pricing volatility increased and has resulted in a current weighted average Power Pool price for February of $113.79/MWh, an uptick of $12.12/MWh or 12%. Consecutive days of double-digit negative temperatures increased demand, which had a direct impact on prices this past week. Prices settled to over $100/MWh on multiple days and reached a peak on February 22nd of $403.15/MWh. Generator outages were minimal, with only HR Milner experiencing intermittent ...

Feb 25, 2022 • 2 min read

The escalating Russia and Ukraine conflict continues to heighten volatility for natural gas. Henry Hub natural gas futures for March spiked to a high of US$4.94/MMBtu earlier today, up over 30 cents from Wednesday's close of US$4.623/MMBtu, before steadying near US$4.55/MMBtu as the 2:30pm EDT close approached. Despite the geopolitical tensions, fundamentally, the North American natural gas market is well supplied. While temporary production freeze-offs occurred twice this month, helping to...

Feb 22, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, says drivers will get some relief from record high gasoline prices next week, but the lull will be short-lived. He says the recent gasoline price spike has been accelerated by Ukraine-Russia tensions and U.S. refineries heading into maintenance mode. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Feb 22, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, talks about what consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. He says prices are poised to increase yet again, and demand shows no sign of slowing down. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Feb 17, 2022 • 3 min read

Is there anything that can stop this runaway price train? How high can gasoline and diesel prices go? Base prices are set by global drivers, but the final pump or rack “out-of-my-pocket price” is guided, or some may say misguided, by self-nominated governmental visionaries who claim to know better than the vote wielding consumer. To make their case, they add a dazzling array of taxes to justify the end price – and their existence. The consumer has no say in the pricing calculus unless w...

Feb 17, 2022 • 1 min read

Due to recent volatility, Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for February is currently $101.67/MWh, an increase of $25.75/MWh or 34%. Demand levels have increased in the province, due to a return to more seasonal temperatures. Where we saw positive temperatures last week, almost hitting double digits in parts of the province, Alberta is now experiencing sub-zero temperatures. Coinciding with an increase in hourly demand, a downturn in wind generation has been a contributing factor ...

Feb 17, 2022 • 1 min read

Weather forecasts continue to heighten volatility for natural gas. Henry Hub natural gas futures for March are trading at US$4.51/MMBtu as of 12:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon, down over 4% from yesterday's close of US$4.717/MMBtu. Prompt-month futures have jumped over 14% from last week, with hints of a cooler weather outlook for late February and early March, and continued storage withdrawals above the five-year average. The ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain a risk to push p...

Feb 11, 2022 • 2 min read

No matter how hard, or how many times you may try to pump the brakes, nothing seems to be able to slow down the rocketing trajectory of diesel, rack, or gasoline pump prices. Maybe the only option is to grin and pay it – because pay for it we will as these storm clouds just keep getting darker. Normally you get rewarded for success but in the case of energy prices, we are being penalized. It appears the latest pandemic variant has been subdued to the point of submission. The mask tossing has...

Feb 11, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for February is currently $75.92/MWh, representing a week-over-week decrease of $17.61/MWh or 18.8%. The month started with colder temperatures, which slightly elevated pricing, but pivoted to unseasonably mild weather this past week. As a result, only February 5th saw elevated pricing levels, averaging $185.15/MWh for the day. Most volatility occurred between 5pm and 9pm MST, when prices averaged $690.62/MWh, and almost reached the provincial cap...

Feb 11, 2022 • 2 min read

Warmer weather forecasts have put some downward pressure on prices, with Henry Hub prompt-month futures trading within five cents of their En-Pro forecasted value at US$3.95/MMBtu as of 1:45pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Natural gas futures are down 28% from last Wednesday's close of US$5.501/MMBtu, but continue to be impacted by the tight supply/demand balance. US dry gas production has recovered to above 94 Bcf/d, after freeze-offs impacted 5 Bcf/d last weekend, and US liquified natural gas (...

Feb 10, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, talks about why gasoline prices are continuing to soar across Canada. He says supply is lagging and when you look at distillates, it's 16 per cent below the five-year average. He also says refinery runs are slowing, which is normal for this time of the year, but gas demand is still very high for a typical winter season. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Feb 04, 2022 • 2 min read

It seems to me like we're stuck in a pricing rut that's going to be tough to climb out of. This hole is getting deeper while the prices of gasoline and diesel are getting more out of reach. There is little in the way of positive signs to indicate relief at the gas pump or diesel loading rack anytime soon. In fact, if traders are looking for any guidance on the direction of prices in the near or medium term, they will be sadly disappointed because this week's EIA report is… u...

Feb 04, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for January settled to $93.53/MWh, alongside average monthly demand of 10,511MW. Pricing at the end of the month was very low, averaging just $57.67/MWh. There was only one peak period during this time frame, which occurred on January 27th between 6am and 9am, when prices averaged $177.13/MWh; the daily average, however, settled to $75.44/MWh. Consistent wind generation in the province, including days averaging 82.5% of maximum capacity, helped su...

Feb 04, 2022 • 3 min read

The price rollercoaster for natural gas continues. Henry Hub natural gas futures for March climbed 75 cents on Wednesday to close at US$5.501/MMBtu, up US$1.224/MMBtu from a week earlier, before reversing to fall over 60 cents today. Henry Hub prompt-month futures are trading at US$4.86/MMBtu as of 12:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Market analysts are closely watching winter storms heading to Texas, which could cause further well freeze-offs and reduced production. US dry gas production is current...

Jan 31, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, says gasoline prices are about to hit all-time records in Canada, and they should continue to climb in the near term. He says falling crude supply, higher oil prices and the Russia-Ukraine impasse are all impacting gasoline. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Jan 28, 2022 • < 1 min read

Gas prices in the GTA reached a new record high on Friday according to Roger McKnight. Click here to read the article on City News.

Jan 27, 2022 • 2 min read

As we head towards Groundhog Day, it may be an idea for consumers to run for cover because diesel and gasoline prices are about to break through their pricing ceilings. As of Friday, January 28 gasoline pump and diesel rack prices will set an all-time record with little reason for relief over the short-term, in fact, it could get much worse as prices climb even higher. Media is going wild asking me why gas prices are so high, here are a few reasons: • The cost of crude, the anchor for a...

Jan 27, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently settling to $100.16/MWh. Compared to last week's price of $108.57/MWh, we experienced a minor drop of $8.41/MWh or 7.7%. The average price over the past week has been $78.98/MWh, with volatility being kept in check due to milder temperatures, a slight drop in demand and consistent wind generation. January 24th, however, was unsettled, with pricing settling to $130.56/MWh. Prices averaged $253.60/MWh between 5pm and mi...

Jan 27, 2022 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures prices continue to soar, as cold weather forecasts for the first week of February are keeping prices above US$4/MMBtu. Henry Hub futures for March are trading at US$4.275/MMBtu as of 2:45pm EDT Thursday afternoon. The upward price action continues to be influenced by increased heating demand and production declines, tightening the supply/demand balance. Demand remains strong for US liquified natural gas exports (LNG) with high global natural gas prices and ongoing supply conc...

Jan 24, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN for a closer look at what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. He says that while Vancouver will see some relief, gasoline prices will continue to climb across the rest of the country. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Jan 21, 2022 • 3 min read

It started early this year – the panic calls from the media asking for some guidance on why gasoline pump and diesel rack prices are so high and how much higher can they possibly go? When will all this madness end? I can usually tell the time of year down to the week based on the number of these requests from various reporters and media outlets wanting immediate answers for the public. The momentum usually begins to build in late February and peaks mid-April, but this year it's early...

Jan 21, 2022 • 1 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently settling at $108.57/MWh. Relative to last week's price of $130.67/MWh, this results in a decrease of $22.10/MWh or 16.9%. Volatility over the course of the past week was kept to a minimum, with the weekly average price settling to $69.44/MWh. Demand decreased slightly from the prior week, by 89MW or 0.8%, which had minimal impact on pricing. Elevated levels of wind generation in the province have continued to help sup...

Jan 21, 2022 • 3 min read

As the global energy crisis unfolds, recent energy data reveals natural gas' representation in Germany's YOY Q3 electricity generation mix declined by 40%, with coal having to pick up the slack because the country's entire fleet of nuclear energy plants is in the process of being shut down by 2022. Similarly, China's coal production hit record heights in December 2021. To “help the world manage”, this week Chinese State-owned Sinopec put 45 of its LNG cargoes secured for 2022...

Jan 17, 2022 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN for a closer look at what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. He explains that part of the country follows crude prices, while the other half follows supply. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Jan 14, 2022 • 2 min read

I guess it was back in November when it started to get cold and the COVID-19 ice began to form yet again. I also believe that was when our politicians made a special guest appearance at their place of employment – Canada's Parliament. It was then that it was decreed, without debate or input or discussion from the public or transport sector, that the border would be closed to those Canadian truckers returning from the U.S. who had not been fully vaccinated. This was to take effect o...

Jan 14, 2022 • 2 min read

January's weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is currently 3.3¢/kWh – up 0.5¢/kWh or 18.5% from last week's settle. The primary driver of this price hike was the increased use of demand response generators, which typically utilize expensive natural gas as their fuel source. Natural gas-burning generation supply increased by 25.3% (2,103MW) over the course of this past week, whereas base-load generation such as nuclear fell by 1.0% (-103.1MW), decreasing its output to an...

Jan 14, 2022 • 2 min read

Cold weather forecasts for the second half of January are putting upward pressure on futures prices this week. Henry Hub natural gas futures for February closed at US$4.857/MMBtu on Wednesday, the highest close since November 24. As of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon, prompt-month futures have pulled back, trading at US$4.39/MMBtu, with futures contracts for the remainder of 2022 all still trading above US$4.00/MMBtu. US natural gas production has declined in January due to some well freeze-offs a...

Jan 07, 2022 • 2 min read

In my opinion, confused bemusement is the only wording couplet that comes to mind when reviewing the 2022 forecasts as uttered by the self-proclaimed energy experts, which I have now named the “Enertrolls,” which could be suspiciously shortened to ETs – or experts from another planet. The question on most consumers' minds these days (at least the ones who drive to an office that is not at the end of their own driveway) is: where are gasoline and diesel prices headed in 2022? As the so...

Jan 07, 2022 • 2 min read

Alberta's weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently settling at $154.08/MWh. Relative to December's month-end price of $128.29/MWh, this results in an increase of $25.79/MWh or 20.1%. While the first three days of the month saw relatively low prices, averaging just $74.91/MWh, prices shot up the past couple of days. On January 4th and 5th, prices averaged $268.11/MWh, reaching a high of $749.33/MWh on January 5th at 6pm MST. Consistently elevated levels of demand contr...

Jan 07, 2022 • 2 min read

Weather forecasts are calling for varying degrees of colder temperatures for most of January. As a result, Henry Hub natural gas futures for February are trading at US$3.84/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up 5.6% from Monday's low of US$3.638/MMBtu. Demand for US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remains strong, as global natural gas prices continue to soar. Gas flows from Russia to Europe have been weaker than expected, with regulatory delays in Germany of the Nord Stream 2 pi...

Jan 04, 2022 • < 1 min read

As the country continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing supply chain issues, Canadians are feeling the pinch at the register as prices continue to increase. Experts say this is a trend we can expect to see continue well into this year. Click here to read the article on CTV News.

Dec 23, 2021 • 2 min read

Has the energy door slammed shut on 2021? Is it half open for 2022? No one seems to know. No one seems to want to know. That’s because the price driver (supply and demand), has driven us the wrong way down a one-way street. The short-term prices for crude and all refined products as we approach the never say never land of 2022, are now the wishful pixie dust musings of politicians stuck in their own fog patches of thought. The future is hazy because energy prices are not in their absolute ...

Dec 23, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for December is currently $90.10/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $98.42/MWh, this represents a slight decrease of $8.32/MWh, or 8.5%. Hourly demand in the province increased marginally by 176MW, or 1.7%. Market volatility was minimal this past week, with prices reaching highs of $547.32/MWh at 9am MST on the 17th and $354.04/MWh at 5pm MST on the 19th. Prices were suppressed for the rest of the week, averaging $72.80/MWh, thanks to elevated wind ...

Dec 23, 2021 • 2 min read

2021 brought a year of volatility to natural gas markets, with prices reaching record highs not seen since 2008 earlier this fall. Higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand and lower-than-average storage positions, combined with a hot summer, pipeline disruptions, and surging overseas global prices (from low inventory levels), have driven up demand for North American natural gas. Despite strong US LNG exports and soaring European and Asian prices, a warmer start to the winter heating season has ...

Dec 20, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, talks about what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. He says prices will continue to rise as consumers hit the road. But he says that jet fuel has significantly fallen since the rise of the Omicron variant. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Dec 17, 2021 • 2 min read

Sure doesn’t look like Kansas anymore! Know what? Maybe the abnormal is the new normal! It could be just me, but the emotion is starting to leak out of the pandemic balloon. Is the energy market and its consumer base now yelling “uncle” and living with the doom and gloom headlines, and just moving on? Have we had enough of hiding behind our curtains waiting for the latest COVID storm to pass? Sure looks that way! That’s according to the supply and demand balance sheet from...

Dec 17, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for December is currently $98.42/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $129.79/MWh, this represents a dramatic decrease of $31.37/MWh or 24.1%. Periods of volatility were kept to a minimum in the past week, with multiple hour price spikes occurring on only one day, the 15th, resulting in a daily price $122.26/MWh. Prices were suppressed for the rest of the week, averaging just $63.03/MWh, thanks to wind generation of over 50% of capacity on numerous da...

Dec 17, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub prices for January are holding steady below the US$4-mark, trading at US$3.81/MMBtu as of 1:40pm EDT Thursday afternoon. After reaching a low of US$3.686/MMBtu on Tuesday, prices have slowly trended higher with cooler temperatures forecasted for January. Ongoing Omicron concerns and uncertainty around impact severity of the new variant, however, have limited upward price movement. On the bullish side, record high natural gas prices in Europe and Asia continue to provide demand for US l...

Dec 13, 2021 • < 1 min read

Dec 10, 2021 • 2 min read

I blinked. I guess I missed the point. The elusive point being, skyrocketing gas prices and the president's plummeting approval ratings are key factors in the jump in inflation. The president somehow managed to release 50 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and convinced others to join the game. And he also convinced OPEC to increase supply from 400,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd in November. As mentioned in last week’s report, this dropped the West Texas Intermediat...

Dec 10, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for December is currently $129.79/MWh. Relative to November’s month-end price of $100.07/MWh, this represents an increase of $29.72/MWh or 29.7%. Hourly demand has also increased relative to last month, by 292MW or 2.9%. December has already presented us with a few periods of volatility, most notably on the 2nd, 3rd and 6th, when daily pricing settled to over $200/MWh. The majority of the hourly volatility on these days started in the early afternoon, ...

Dec 10, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for January are trading at US$3.83/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Prompt-month futures fell to a four-month low to close at US$3.657/MMBtu on Monday, December 6th, on forecasts of warmer winter weather to start the heating season. That said, prices have rebounded on hints of lower temperatures to close out December. Increased natural gas production and weather patterns have been the key drivers impacting price movement over the last two weeks. US dry gas...

Dec 06, 2021 • < 1 min read

Dec 03, 2021 • 2 min read

For those of us who are short on patience and time, I suggest that a rapid read could be hastened even further if all of us were able to remember, or rerun the movie, “Back to the Future.” That’s where the energy story ends today – right where it began two years ago. Let me take you back, almost two years to the day, when COVID-19 emerged from a – “Oh no, it will never happen here” medical curio – to a monster that has threatened the health and economic wellbeing of our entire world. Th...

Dec 03, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for November settled to $100.07/MWh, a marginal decrease of $1.50/MWh or 1.5% relative to last week. There were no hourly demand changes in the province and, while the monthly price did not change significantly, there were periods of volatility in the last week. On the 29th, for example, the Power Pool price spiked to $624.62/MWh at 1pm MST, and settled at $187.72/MWh for the day. This daily peak stemmed from minimal solar and wind generation, coincidi...

Dec 03, 2021 • 3 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for January are trading at US$4.10/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon, plunging over US$1/MMBtu this week from last Friday's close of US$5.477/MMBtu. Forward prices have dropped to pre–Hurricane Ida levels, not seen since late August 2021. Warmer than usual weather forecasts for December have continued to put downward pressure on prices this week. US liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas flows are at 10.7 bcf/d, falling below 11 bcf/d, and US dry gas prod...

Dec 02, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight explains the volatility of Gas Prices. Click here to read the article on City News.

Dec 02, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight explains the volatility of Gas Prices. Click here to read the article on City News.

Nov 29, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, talks about what consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps in the week ahead. He says if the Trans Mountain pipeline is offline for a prolonged period of time due to the B.C. floods then there could be a serious problem for prices. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Nov 26, 2021 • 2 min read

The recently announced release of 50 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by President Joe Biden almost begs the classic question “are we there yet?” My follow up question to the president is also “do we know where we’re going?” The reason for the draw from the SPR was to calm the frothy waters of consumer frustration as they face record high gasoline prices in the U.S. The move is also seen as an image refresher for the president with the midterms fast app...

Nov 26, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for November is currently $101.57/MWh, representing a further increase of $8.47/MWh or 9.1% relative to last week’s price of $93.10/MWh. Pricing has steadily increased over the past couple of weeks, as we head into the colder parts of the year. Hourly demand also continues to rise, with an average this past week of 10,192MW, an increase of 182MW or 1.8%. There were a few extended volatile periods, namely on the 19th when daily pricing averaged $271.86/...

Nov 26, 2021 • 3 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for December rallied higher on Wednesday to settle at US$5.068/MMBtu, with prices up over 5% from Monday's close of US$4.789/MMBtu. With the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the market reacted to the EIA storage report that was released early, as well as strong demand for US liquified natural gas (LNG) exports. As reported in the EIA November Short-Term Energy Outlook, it is estimated US LNG exports averaged 9.8 Bcf/d in October, up 0.3 Bcf/d from September, supporte...

Nov 23, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to tool at pump prices for the week ahead. He mentions they could either go down or remain the same in Canada given the possibility that Biden might increase supply. McKnight also notes that the flooding situation in B.C. has yet to have an impact on the pump price. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Nov 18, 2021 • 2 min read

As the 30,000 attendees heading home from the COP26 "gatherathon" hopped on various fossil fueled jets, the skies must have taken on a hue of disappointment. Colour me cynical but little, if anything, appears to have been accomplished other than the familiar hollow echoes of political ranting and posturing, which sounded to many like, “Oh yeah? Well my planet saving promises are better than yours are!” What may have been agreed upon is that the transition from fossil to renewables will hap...

Nov 18, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for November is currently $93.10/MWh. This represents an increase of $7.1/MWh or 8.3% relative to last week’s price of $86/MW. For the first time this fall, average hourly demand reached 10,000MW, relative to last week’s average of 9,947MW. While November has been warmer than average, snowfall and colder temperatures have slowly started to settle in throughout the province, which caused a marginal increase in provincial demand. Furthermore, above seaso...

Nov 18, 2021 • 2 min read

Market volatility continues, as Henry Hub prompt-month natural gas futures are trading at US$4.90/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT. After plunging to a low of US$4.752/MMBtu on Friday, November 12th, prices rebounded to reach a high of US$5.394/MMBtu on Tuesday with news that German regulators have suspended the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. As reported, Gazprom affiliate Nord Stream 2 AG stated it would establish a subsidiary to operate the German stretch of the system, which is d...

Nov 15, 2021 • < 1 min read

President Biden is considering tapping into the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve to combat higher oil prices. Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss why this plan would likely not alleviate prices and cause further tension with OPEC+. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Nov 12, 2021 • 3 min read

Forget Kansas! We’re not even in Glasgow anymore! When I think of it, why did we fossil fly 257 delegates, including pre-approved media pals, to this assemblage of the all-knowing overseers of climate change? The convention halls may still be echoing with the political and attendee “Wows!” from the enviro faithful, but someone please tell me and Greta, what was accomplished? If the goal was to stamp a collective foot and declare firm, binding, and enforceable GHG emission levels on a gl...

Nov 12, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for November is currently $86/MWh. Relative to October’s month-end price of $96.82/MWh, this is a decrease of $10.82/MWh or 11.2%. Hourly demand in the province has behaved in an opposing manner, with an increase of 495MW or 5.2%. Typically when demand rises we expect to see higher Power Pool prices. The disparity between current market behaviour and pricing expectations can be explained by the significant volume of inexpensive wind generation being pr...

Nov 12, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures declined earlier in the week to close below US$5/MMBtu, before rebounding, trading at US$5.07/MMBtu as of 2:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Mild temperatures to start November, strong dry gas production around 95 Bcf/d, and the potential for a small pullback in US exports if Russian supplies help reduce demand for US liquified natural gas in Europe, put downward pressure on prices. As mentioned in previous weeks, the Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline is complete but waiti...

Nov 08, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, talks about gas prices going down but he warns that this trend will not last as gasoline inventories are 3 per cent below the 5 year average. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Nov 05, 2021 • 2 min read

As the saying goes, you can't judge a book by its cover, and so it seems like not a meeting if it’s just a cover! It looks to me like the COP26 has so far become nothing more than... PHOTO OP 26 with various levels of world leaders’ priorities being who can stand next to whom for the group photo. Then it's off to the airport and homeward bound. U.S. President Joe Biden’s Air Force One was on Scottish soil long enough to refuel it’s 290,000-liter wing tanks and set off back...

Nov 05, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for October settled to $96.82/MWh, a marginal decrease of $0.23/MWh or 0.2% relative to last week’s price of $97.05/MWh. Conversely, provincial demand in the province saw a marginal increase of 50MW or 0.3%. As temperatures drop further, demand will continue to increase. For the time being, this uptick in demand will be offset by increased wind generation, which will help increase the supply cushion. A few generators, namely Battle River 5 and Sundance...

Nov 05, 2021 • 2 min read

Market volatility continues this week, as prompt-month Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$5.77/MMBtu as of 1:35pm EDT. After plunging to a low of US$5.16/MMBtu on Monday, prices rebounded to reach a high of US$5.865/MMBtu on November 3rd, as the peak-demand winter heating season approaches and the supply/demand balance remains tight. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 3,611 Bcf for the week ending October 29th, following an overall injection of 63 Bcf. The injection was in li...

Nov 01, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst of En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg for a closer look at what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps this weekend, and where he sees the price of crude heading long-term. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 29, 2021 • 2 min read

The current skyrocketing prices of all energy related commodities requires all of us consumers to get back to the basics of: “Supply and Demand.” Gasoline pump and diesel rack prices are moving with the rumoured and real changes in inventory and demand figures. Sometimes the speculators and traders look at the wrong numbers – and that is exactly what’s happening now. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report shows an increase in U.S. crude inventories of 4.3 million barrels...

Oct 29, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for October is currently $97.05/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $102.16/MWh, this represents a decrease of $5.11/MWh or 5%. With windy conditions and cool fall temperatures, volatility has been kept to a minimum due to the amount of wind generation supplied. Where the year-to-date average for wind generation has been 14.6% of capacity, numerous days have reached 75-80% of the province’s 2,139MW maximum wind capacity. When the province can supply ...

Oct 29, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for November expired yesterday at US$6.202/MMBtu, up US$3.183/MMBtu from a year earlier, and the highest November contract price since 2008. Shifting weather forecasts, low coal inventories for power generation and robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports continue to be driving factors behind the recent rallies. Prompt-month has rolled over to December and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$5.82/MMBtu as of 1:30 pm EDT Thursday afternoon. US dry gas p...

Oct 25, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN Bloomberg to talk about record gasoline prices across Canada. There are many causes for rising prices- including OPEC production and natural gas shortages, as Roger notes everything is connected in the energy world. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 22, 2021 • 3 min read

If much in life is all about the timing, then someone should retrieve the invitations sent to the environmental gala soon to be held in Glasgow called: COP26 – The 2021 UN Climate Change Conference. It took some searching, but I found out that the COP part stands for “Conference of the Parties” for a number of treaties. The title isn’t the only thing that’s confusing. As I understand it, the main goal of this assembly of the “omniscient, all-knowing jet setters,” is to slow down, or even s...

Oct 22, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for October is currently $102.16/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $114.01/MWh, this represents a decrease of $11.85/MWh or 10.3%. Pricing in the province continues to decrease as generators in the province return online, bringing back much needed supply to the generation mix; this includes Sundance 6, Keephills 2 and Battle River 4, all of which have been offline for several days. Since these generation assets provide baseload supply to the grid, ...

Oct 22, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for November are finally trending downward, trading at US$5.12/MMBtu as of 2:20pm EDT Thursday afternoon, down $0.42/MMBtu from the week prior. Warmer weather forecasts, calling for late October and November to be warmer than normal, have helped push prices lower. As published in their October Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the EIA expects prices to remain elevated throughout the winter. US exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are on track for a record high thi...

Oct 19, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight explains why Canadians will be paying much more at the gas pumps across Canada. Click here to read the article on Times News Express.

Oct 15, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, takes a closer look at what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. McKnight says there are a number of factors that will push up pump prices like the soaring cost for crude and the carbon tax in Canada. He says it looks like the only way this train can be slowed down is if the politicians put the brakes on the taxes. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 15, 2021 • 3 min read

We are all reluctant passengers on a runaway energy pricing train that’s heading for a curve far too fast. The only way to stop it is to gain control of the engine – or it’s going to derail. Diesel, gasoline, rack, and pump prices have now obliterated previous record highs set in mid-May 2018. What is the cause, and how high can prices go? As mentioned in earlier reports, energy is a complicated global integrated matrix with each ingredient at times linked to each other. Supply and d...

Oct 15, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for October is currently $114.01/MWh, a decrease of $28.06/MWh or 19.8% relative to last week’s price of $142.07/MWh. While last week’s elevated pricing was a result of volatility in early parts of the month, prices have remained steady this past week, averaging $89/MWh. Volatility to start the week can be attributed to generator outages at Battle River 4, Keephills 2 and Sundance 6, which have a combined maximum capacity of 951MW. Coinciding with the ...

Oct 15, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for November are trading at US$5.68/MMBtu as of 2:45pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up over 9 cents from yesterday's close of $5.59/MMBtu, after a bullish storage report. Dry gas production is currently estimated at 91.5 bcf/d after hitting above 93.5 bcf/d for a 3-day stretch. Pipeline maintenance has kicked in; however, it should be back above 93 bcf/d by the 18th, barring any additional maintenance-related events. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 3,369 B...

Oct 12, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight explains why gas prices are rising. Click here to read the article on CityNews.

Oct 12, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro explains why gas prices are spiking. Click here to read the article on News 1130.

Oct 12, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN for a closer look at what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. He says he doesn't believe there is a tipping point right now for drivers to get off the road, despite rising gas prices. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 07, 2021 • 2 min read

The only metaphor that can describe the fossil-fueled energy emotion over this past week is that the consumer has now ventured into the deep end of the pool with leaky water wings. The energy pool is a complicated soup with many interrelated ingredients. For evidence of this, you just have to look at this week’s price spikes at the pump and loading racks for gasoline and diesel. The screams from the consumer, encouraged by media, have been, to say the least – deafening. But here’s...

Oct 07, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for October is currently settling at $142.07/MWh. Relative to September’s month-end price of $96.14/MWh, this results in an increase of $45.93/MWh or 32.3%. Prices on October 4th and 5th settled to $310.33/MWh and $166.69/MWh, respectively, averaging $237.77/MWh for the 2-day period and contributing to the uptick in monthly price. Minimal wind and solar generation added to the increased volatility, as the market had to rely on receding coal generation ...

Oct 07, 2021 • 2 min read

The price rollercoaster for natural gas continues as Henry Hub natural gas futures for November reached the highest closing price since December 2008 this week, on concerns that surging global natural gas prices in Europe and Asia will further influence prices in North America. The November contract closed at US$6.312/MMBtu on Tuesday, before reversing to fall over 63 cents to close at US$5.675/MMBtu yesterday. Prices pulled back after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said the country is ready ...

Oct 06, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight talks with CTV News regarding skyrocketing prices at the pumps this week as the global economy begins to rebound from a pandemic lull. Click here to read the article on CTV News.

Oct 04, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, takes a closer look at what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. He says global supply issues with natural gas will cause the price of gasoline to be pulled up even further by osmosis. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Oct 01, 2021 • 2 min read

Why do I get the distinct impression that some Canadians and others in the U.S. are haughtily ‘tut-tutting’ when we read about the current energy mess in the UK and continental Europe? Surely that can’t happen here on the Island of North America. I mean, in this country, we are neighbours of the largest producer and exporter of crude and refined products in the world. And don’t forget that during a natural gas crisis, the U.S. is going to be the go-to supplier for exports of liquid natu...

Oct 01, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for September is currently settling at $97.03/MWh, a marginal increase of $4.26/MWh or 4.6% relative to last week’s settle of $92.77/MWh. Demand for the week stayed relatively flat, with only the 27th resulting in peak levels hitting almost 10,000MW and averaging 9,219MW, in contrast to the monthly average of 9,006MW. The demand increase experienced on the 27th resulted in average hourly prices of $166.62/MWh, which helped increase the monthly market p...

Oct 01, 2021 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures prices continue to soar after another week of volatility. The October contract rallied to a high of US$6.28/MMBtu on Monday, September 27th, and closed at US$5.84/MMBtu on Tuesday - the highest closing price since February 2014. The upward price action continues to be influenced by record high global natural gas prices in Europe and Asia and a tight supply/demand imbalance. We are in unprecedented times in 2021, as the global natural gas market is now weighing heavily on both...

Sep 24, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight explains the connection between high natural gas prices in Europe affecting Canada. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 24, 2021 • 2 min read

What’s in your wallet, stays in your wallet. That is until you have to pay for it. In theory, we are in the “Sleepy Hollow” shoulder season of supply and demand for all the flavours of fossil fuels. But, we may be in for a rude awakening as the days get shorter, the nights get longer, and the thermostats dial up higher. Lower temperatures will, of course, increase demand and prices for all forms of fuels required for heating purposes — from natural gas to electricity generated from ...

Sep 24, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for September is currently settling at $92.77/MWh. Prices have decreased by $11.77/MWh or 11.2% relative to last week’s price of $104.54/MWh. This type of market behaviour is expected at this point of the year, as cooler fall weather emerges and summer demand dissipates. Average hourly demand settled below 9,000MW over the course of the last two weeks, due to an average temperature below 20°C. Volatility over the past week was kept to a minimum, with o...

Sep 24, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for October are trading at US$4.97/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. After hitting an intraday high of US$5.65/MMBtu on Wednesday, September 15 th, forward prices have fallen back this week, closing at US$4.805/MMBtu yesterday, down 12% from the week prior. Near-term temperature forecasts for late September and early October have helped put some downward pressure on prices, as we move into the low demand shoulder period. US dry natural gas production has in...

Sep 20, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, talks about what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. He says we might see a rise in demand for electric car charging stations within the next five years as companies ramp up infrastructure for EVs. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 17, 2021 • 2 min read

Maybe it's something in the air? Maybe it’s the time of year? Or is it just coincidental fate? The autumnal Equinox is approaching and giving us equal periods of day and night. Ironically, this falls on the same day as our Federal election giving us equal opportunity to choose between whose ambition will result in actual action. More to the point, who will have to pay for their vowed actions? Within the energy family of misfits, the oil and gas industry has been painted...

Sep 17, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for September is currently $104.54/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $85.54/MWh, this represents an increase of $19/MWh or 18.2%. There have been a few periods of volatility over the past week, notably on the 9th when prices settled to $247.78/MWh. This price spike coincided with average hourly demands of 9,216MW, the highest they’ve been relative to this month’s average of 8,990MW, a difference of 226MW or 2.5%. Also contributing to the elevated p...

Sep 17, 2021 • 2 min read

Market volatility continues this week, as Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$5.28/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT. After prices reached a seven-year high, closing at US$5.46/MMBtu yesterday, a bearish EIA storage report put some downward pressure on forward prices this afternoon. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 3,006 Bcf for the week ending September 10th, following an injection of 83 Bcf. The injection was higher than market expectations ranging from 66-80 Bcf, along with the five...

Sep 13, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN for a closer look at what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. He also says while prices continue to fall, there’s a warning that it won’t be gasoline inventories that will direct near-term prices but distillate levels. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 10, 2021 • 2 min read

“Just ignore it! It will go away!” That was the last advice given by my now former dentist when I complained about a throbbing toothache. But as we all know, pretending something isn’t there doesn’t mean it isn’t there. Recent declarations by self-titled pseudo energy expert advisory panels that the fossil fuel industry should be fossilized, and that we should be at net zero emission levels on or before 2050, are great headline grabbers. Grabbed by politicians when they need a lifel...

Sep 10, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for September is currently $82.80/MWh. In comparison to August’s month-end price of $85.54/MWh, this is a decrease of $2.74/MWh or 3.2%. There was very minimal market activity to start the month, with prices averaging $52.24/MWh over the first six days. As a result of the past two days of volatility, which spiked prices to an average of $172.82/MWh, month-to-date Power Pool prices have increased. Causes for the instability include a decrease in renewab...

Sep 10, 2021 • 3 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for September continue to climb, trading at US$4.99/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT on Thursday afternoon, after reaching highs of over US$5/MMBtu. Futures for November 2021 through to February 2022 are all trading above US$5/MMBtu as the supply/demand balance continues to tighten. Production in the Gulf of Mexico remains more than 70% shut-in due to fallout from Hurricane Ida. While operations are expected to resume in the upcoming days, it could take weeks to fully revert ...

Sep 07, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, joins BNN for a closer look at what Canadian consumers can expect to pay at the gas pumps ahead of the weekend. He talks about how Hurricane Ida will impact gasoline prices in Canada. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Sep 03, 2021 • 2 min read

I'm calling this time we are all living in, the storm before the calm. No, I haven’t got it backwards. It would have been (and I guess it was) logical for the media and traders to anticipate that Hurricane Ida would be a repeat of the event 16 years ago, when Katrina hit the Gulf and shut down 20% of the U.S. refining industry, and pump prices jumped 25 cents per gallon overnight - from Houston to New York and into Eastern Canada. Yes, Ida hit the coast hard, but the price spikes...

Sep 03, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for the month of August settled at $85.54/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $88.26/MWh, this represents a decrease of $2.72/MWh or 3.1%. Minimal pricing volatility over the past week helped lower August’s settle, with prices averaging $73.86/MWh. Prices spiked only one day last week, on the 30th, when daily pricing peaked at $152.37/MWh; had prices not spiked this high, the weekly price would have settled to under $60/MWh. Temperatures in the past ...

Sep 03, 2021 • 1 min read

The upward momentum continues as Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$4.65/MMBtu as of 2:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Hurricane Ida negatively impacted production in the Gulf of Mexico, and today’s disappointing storage report continued to raise storage inventory level concerns, as winter demand nears. US dry gas production is down below 90 Bcf/day, estimated at 88.6 Bcf/day, and US LNG export demand remains strong, which pushed prices to a high of US$4.727/MMBtu earlier today. The EI...

Sep 02, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight explains why some P.E.I. gas stations are out of gas. Click here to read the article on CBC.

Sep 02, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight explains the “ditto factor.” Click here to read the article on CTV.

Sep 01, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight gives the low down on lower gas prices this fall. Click here to read the article on MSN.

Aug 30, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, breaks down what Canadians can expect to pay at the gas pumps in the week ahead. He says that vaccine passports will help push up gasoline prices since more people will start to travel once again. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Aug 30, 2021 • < 1 min read

Intrested in Sustainability and Carbon Management? Click here to find out more. Click here to inquire about Sustainability and Carbon Management.

Aug 27, 2021 • 2 min read

Forget about the “driving season” with its high pump prices. Forget about the “heating season” and its high diesel prices. Introducing... the “roller coaster season.” We’ve bought our ticket, but who knows where this ride will take us? As we enter the doldrums of the early fall shoulder season of demand, one would think that the trio of supply, demand, and refinery runs would all be in harmony. That is until one of the three wanders off-key. One of them must be really off-key...

Aug 27, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for August is currently $88.26/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $100.87/MWh, this represents a decrease of $12.61/MWh, or 12.5%. Aiding this decline in month-to-date pricing was a $37.04/MWh settlement on August 22nd – a price level not experienced in the past few months. Average hourly demand in the province has continued to decrease, settling to 9,347MW this week, equating to a week-over-week decline of 147MW, or 1.5%. One of the main contribut...

Aug 27, 2021 • 1 min read

Market volatility continues, as Henry Hub prompt-month natural gas futures have pushed above the US$4/MMBtu mark again, trading at US$4.20/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Prices are up over 30 cents from yesterday's close of US$3.897/MMBtu, thanks to persistent hot temperatures, strong export demand, and a bullish storage report. Traders are closely watching the potential threat of a hurricane, expected to track into the Gulf of Mexico and approach Texas or Louisiana early next w...

Aug 25, 2021 • < 1 min read

Exceprt Roger McKnight talks about the impact the Delta variant is having on gas prices across Canada and north America Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Aug 20, 2021 • 2 min read

Living in the age of “politucion” In the refining calendar there are two seasons. The first is late spring, early summer when facilities crank up production of gasoline for the upcoming driving season. The second is early to late fall when the emphasis is on distillates (diesel and heating oil) for the winter heating period. These seasons though, are when consumers and manufacturing are functioning in normal times. Those times are in the past. Forecasting prices of any or all refi...

Aug 20, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for August is currently $100.87/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $104.60/MWh, this represents a further decrease of $3.73/MWh or 3.6%. Average hourly demand settled to 9,533MW last week, just 0.4% higher than the current demand of 9,494MW. Pricing volatility was relatively low, with most of the activity occurring on the 12th and 13th, when prices averaged $170.47/MWh, stemming from elevated temperatures reaching over 30°C in parts of the province....

Aug 20, 2021 • 2 min read

By 10 a.m. this morning the traded price for prompt month natural gas futures at Henry Hub had dropped over US$0.06/MMBtu from the open pricing of US$3.826/MMBtu in anticipation of the EIA’s storage report announcing an injection of around 39 Bcf for the week ending August 11th, suppressing prices to their expected support levels in the mid US$3.70’s/MMBtu. The actual reported injection was 46 Bcf with an implied flow of 42 Bcf, resulting in no significant changes to the price momentum establish...

Aug 13, 2021 • 2 min read

With the 2020 Olympic games now over, another game relentlessly continues with the quest for the gold medal in politically driven economic whack-a-mole! There are a number of moles to take a swat at as far as our leaders are concerned. The key target right now, I believe, is to permanently knock out the current pandemic and the chances of another virus randomly popping up anywhere that may be the death knell for any sustained localized or even global recovery. For over 16 months, the c...

Aug 13, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for August is currently $104.60/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $143.49/MWh, this represents a decrease of $38.89/MWh or 27.1%. This is a significant drop and one we have rarely experienced so far this year. Causing this dip in pricing is lower demand levels, with average hourly demand decreasing from 9,840MW last week to 9,533MW currently, a difference of 307MW or 3.1%. Peak demand also dropped week over week, from 11,023MW on August 3rd at 5pm ...

Aug 13, 2021 • 3 min read

Natural gas futures for September have retreated, trading at US$3.93 MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT, down more than 12 cents from yesterday's close of US$4.059 MMBtu. Cooler weather forecasts in the near-term reducing power burn demand, along with a storage injection of 49 Bcf which was in line with market expectations, pushed prices below US$4 MMBtu. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 2,776 Bcf for the week ending August 6tth, with storage levels now 16.5% below year-ago levels and, relativ...

Aug 06, 2021 • 3 min read

Out with the old! We need something new. No more of this, “is the glass half full or half empty?” jargon. I have chosen a variation on the theme, and will now ask you to ponder if the curtain is going up or is it going down? Are we about to witness the elevation of crude prices to the $100/bbl level any time soon? Is now the time? If so, what is causing it, and what, if anything, could stop it. If we look at this week’s U.S. inventory report it indicates that supply of cru...

Aug 06, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for August is currently $143.49/MWh. Relative to July’s month-end price of $129.65/MWh, this represents an increase of $13.84/MWh or 10.7%. To kick off the month, pricing remained steady, averaging $83.10/MWh, but volatility occurred on the 3rd and 4th. On August 4th, we saw the daily market price settle to $246.98/MWh, reaching a high of $938.21/MWh at 6pm MST. While the daily demand levels for the 4th did not reach as high as we have seen this summer...

Aug 06, 2021 • 2 min read

The rally continues this week, as Henry Hub natural gas futures for September are trading at US$4.16/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Expectations for hot weather have increased power burn demand and strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports persist. Front-month natural gas futures are continuing to trade above US$4.00/MMBtu for the fall and through to March 2022, reaching highs not seen since December 2018. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported US exports of liquefied ...

Aug 04, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight's has returned to BNN/BLOOMBERG's Commodities Report with Andrew Bell. We're happy to report our Chief Petroleum Analyst, Roger McKnight's return to BNN/BLOOMBERG's Commodities Report with Andrew Bell every Friday beginning August, 6 at 11:45 a.m. ET and repeated throughout the weekend. En-Pro Petroleum analysis and gas price predictions are on the 680NEWS En-Pro Gas Updates daily and on BNN/BLOOMBERG every Friday. Thanks for tuning in.

Jul 23, 2021 • 2 min read

Rumour has it that many a curious cat has met its demise... just for being curious. Now I’m no cat, but I am curious and do still have a pulse, which is good! Over the last 16 pandemical months, I have noticed that a national newspaper that claims to have this country’s larges circulation, posts obituaries in 14 of its 18-page Saturday so-called business section. I get the feeling that the editor of this ever so left leaning publication, has pre-written the obit for the oil industry a...

Jul 23, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for July is currently $129.38/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $153.68/MWh, this is a decrease of $24.30/MWh or 15.8%. This past week, pricing settled to $80.25/MWh, in contrast to $153.68/MWh for the first two weeks of the month. Normalized weather patterns helped soften prices, as the province is no longer under heat warnings and demand levels dropped as a result. Previous demand levels settled to 9,991MW, whereas last week averaged 9,886MW, a d...

Jul 23, 2021 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures have continued their upward momentum again this week! Henry Hub natural gas futures for August are trading at US$3.98/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon, approaching a US$4/MMbtu level not seen since December 2018. Expectations for hot temperatures at the end of July and early August, stronger-than-anticipated power burn demand and increased US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are contributing to the price increases. LNG feed gas send-out has increased 87%, year-ove...

Jul 16, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for July is currently $153.68/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $132.01/MWh, this is an increase of $21.67/MWh or 16.4%. One of the primary driving factors of the elevation in pricing was the AESO issuing a Level 2 Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) yesterday, the second time this month. EEAs are issued when demand levels begin to climb and the AESO must run on expensive reserves to meet the increased provincial requirements. These events come on the hee...

Jul 16, 2021 • 2 min read

Market volatility continued this week, with Henry Hub prompt-month futures for July closing at a high of US$3.749/MMBtu on Monday, July 12th, before pulling back to close at US$3.66/MMBtu yesterday and trading at US$3.63/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Hot weather and strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand are continuing to put upward pressure on prices, as both reduce storage inventories. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 2,629 Bcf for the week ending July 9th, foll...

Jul 09, 2021 • 3 min read

Is that a wake up call we are all hearing, or a fire alarm? Many a consumer is asking why gasoline and diesel prices are heading for the stratosphere when we are seemingly beating down these viruses. The time worn answer lies in the timing of supply and demand, not of refined products, but crude, and who supplies it. How has the price of WTI almost doubled since the start of the year now hovering at $75/bbl? April of 2020 marked the start of the pandemic, which had a dramatic effect on...

Jul 09, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for July is currently $132.01/MWh. Relative to June’s price of $149.99/MWh, this is a decrease of $17.97/MWh or 12%. As a result of the heatwave in the province, there was increased market volatility. Wind generation’s contribution to the supply mix helped suppress prices, even while demand levels continued to reach over 10,000MW the days following the heatwave. On the 7th, the AESO issued a Level 2 Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) and asked Albertans to c...

Jul 09, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for August are trading at US$3.68/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up about 8 cents from Wednesday's close of $3.596/MMBtu. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a bullish storage injection of 16 Bcf for the week ending July 2nd, which came in significantly lower than market expectations which ranged from 25-39 Bcf, driving prices higher today. Storage levels are now 17.6% below year-ago levels and, relative to the five-year average, 6....

Jun 25, 2021 • 2 min read

Many a situation, or event, is often referred to as “the elephant in the room.” Something that’s too big to ignore, but let’s ignore it anyway and hope that the elephant will go away. There’s another phrase that seems appropriate in today’s crude oil and refined product markets, and that is "beware the sleeping giant.” The giant that is about to awake is the price of crude, diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel; and this giant is waking up on the grumpy side of the supply and demand bed. Sim...

Jun 25, 2021 • 3 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for June is currently $125.41/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $143.35/MWh, this is a further decrease of $17.94/MWh or 12.5%. While pricing over the past week has averaged $85.22/MWh, helping to lower the monthly price, hourly volatility is still an issue. Prices reached over $200/MWh during nine periods in the past week, mostly on the 21st, resulting in the daily price settling to $154.86/MWh. Hourly demand is currently averaging 9,472MW, a slig...

Jun 25, 2021 • 1 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures continue to climb this week as liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand and natural gas consumption rose and production dipped lower. Henry Hub prompt-month futures for July are trading at US$3.44/MMBtu as of 1pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up over $0.10/MMBtu from yesterday's close of US$3.333/MMBtu, and up $1.696/MMBtu from last year, as we head into summer peak demand. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 2,482 Bcf for the week ending June 18th, following ...

Jun 18, 2021 • 3 min read

National interest? It all depends on the country... It's interesting to see the different interpretations of what is in a country’s “national interest.” I guess it depends on which country we’re talking about. By an accident of geography, we are the northern neighbours to the world’s largest producer and consumer of crude oil and derived products. Neighbours, in most instances, are obliged to be, well, ummm... neighbourly. There are times when the obligatory “how’s it going?” gree...

Jun 18, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for June is currently $143.35/MWh. Relative to the pricing set the week prior of $177.90/MWh, this is a decrease of $34.54/MWh or 19.4%. Market volatility continued this week, which elevated prices significantly on June 14th, when prices settled to $281.88/MWh. Between 11am and 11pm MST, the hourly price averaged $481.61/MWh, with a peak price of $702.53/MWh at 4pm MST. Demand peaked for the month on June 14th, reaching a high of 10,687MW at 5pm MST, a...

Jun 18, 2021 • 2 min read

Market volatility continued this week, with Henry Hub natural gas futures reaching an over-priced high of US$3.369/MMBtu on Tuesday, June 15th, before pulling back to close at US$3.240/MMBtu, ending a five-day rally. Henry Hub prompt-month futures for July are trading at US$3.23/MMBtu as of 1pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Supply change disruptions in the Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) pipeline, that could be extended for months, increased cooling demand and strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) exp...

Jun 11, 2021 • 2 min read

I’m either in a rut or a groove. As a sequel to last week’s report, my current energy viewpoint can be summarized much like the demand from the inappropriately named, not so friendly, Queen of Hearts when she said, “Off with his head!” In this country, this sentiment can be modified by saying, “Off with ITs head!” This is because inanimate objects have no life. Nothing could be more true! The Keystone XL pipeline has been sent to the lost and found department. Permanently lost...

Jun 11, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for June is currently $177.90/MWh. In contrast to May’s month-end pricing of $86.83/MWh, this is an increase of $91.07/MWh or 104.9%. The dramatic increase in pricing is attributed to extreme volatility experienced in earlier parts of the month, where daily pricing settled at $427.97/MWh and $487.45/MWh for June 1st and 2nd respectively. Weather was the prime driver of this volatility, as heat warnings were in effect for the province until June 3rd. Ty...

Jun 11, 2021 • 2 min read

The price of natural gas futures continue to climb upward this week! Henry Hub natural gas futures for July are trading at US$3.14/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. As published in their June Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the EIA now expects Henry Hub spot prices will average $3.07/MMBtu in 2021, up from the 2020 average of $2.03/MMBtu. The higher natural gas prices are primarily reflective of continued growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports across Asia, Europe and Mexico and...

Jun 04, 2021 • 3 min read

I don’t know about you but, I’m getting the feeling that the upper echelonials in the energy field, as well as politicians worthy of office (or clinging on to one), are all rushing to be first in line for a Mad Hatter's tea party with the consumer trailing the parade down an economic rabbit hole to who knows where! The enviro alarmists and People with Placards have now infiltrated the boardrooms and mindsets of the hierarchy in the fossil fuel industry. Their insistence on the elimina...

Jun 04, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for June is currently $86.83/MWh. Relative to the pricing set the week prior of $89.85/MWh, this results in a decrease of $3.02/MWh or 3.7%. The drop in pricing stemmed from minimal market volatility, as pricing between the 27th and 30th averaged $40.43/MWh, due to decreased market demand and normal seasonal temperatures. Unfortunately, pricing spiked on the 31st to $190.30/MWh at the beginning of a heat warning, elevating demand to a level unmatched b...

Jun 04, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for July are trading at US$3.05/MMBtu as of 3pm EDT Thursday afternoon, after reaching a high of US$3.15/MMBtu on Tuesday. Both the Henry Hub July contract and the Henry Hub spot price have traded within a $0.27 US/MMBtu range over the past five and a half weeks. July contract’s open and close positions have settled between $2.92 and $3.18, and daily spot prices have settled between $2.78 and $3.05 US/MMBtu over this same stretch. We believe the spot market will mai...

May 28, 2021 • 3 min read

Addressing and finding a solution to a problem can be like hitting your head against a wall. There are two possible outcomes: The wall gets softer, or your head gets harder. I believe I have been pounding my head against the Line 5 wall for close to six months now. At times I wondered if my warnings only worried me. It certainly didn’t seem to have any effect on political leaders in this country until they showed up at the last minute for a photo op type commentary that they are well g...

May 28, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for May is currently $89.85/MWh. There was very little movement from last week’s price of $90.64/MWh, resulting in a decrease of $0.79/MWh or 0.8%. A couple of days saw increased market volatility, which elevated prices most notably on the 20th and 26th, when prices settled to $161.65/MWh and $114.14/MWh, respectively. Provincial hourly demand has remained flat, decreasing just 4MW, while stable wind generation helped limit price spikes. Intermittent o...

May 28, 2021 • 1 min read

Prompt month has rolled over to July and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$2.95/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. The June contract closed yesterday at US$2.967/MMBtu, up $0.02/MMBtu from a week earlier and up $1.191/MMBtu from last year. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remain strong and weather continues to be a key factor for power generation demand as we move into the summer months. The EIA reports natural gas-fired generation has decreased nearly 7% in the first fo...

May 21, 2021 • 2 min read

There are but two options when reacting to the unwelcome clanging of an early morning wakeup alarm: 1. Get up out of bed and go to work, or 2. hit the snooze button, retreat, and hide under the pillow. That clang came through loud and clear last week for consumers, politicians and the heart and soul of this country’s economy — the much maligned oil and gas industry. With the ransom cheque now having cleared the bank, those evil gasoline consumers can now breathe a sigh of relief, jump in t...

May 21, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for May is currently $90.64/MWh. Relative to last week, this is an increase of $17.87/MWh or 25%. With warmer temperatures starting to become more prominent, we are beginning to see an increase in the average provincial hourly demand. Over the past week, we have seen multiple days in which the temperature reached over 20°C, which coincided with daily peak volatility. As such, over the last week, we saw the average hourly provincial demand increase from...

May 21, 2021 • 2 min read

After reaching a three-month high to close at US$3.109/MMBtu on Monday, May 17 th, Henry Hub natural gas futures for June have retreated and are trading at US$2.92/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Prices started to pull back on Tuesday as moderate weather forecasts are predicted for key demand areas for natural gas consumed by electric power plants to generate electricity (power burn) and production remains steady. In the EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook report, it forecasts U....

May 14, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight talks about the political side of the Line 5 closure Click here to read the article on DiscoverAirdrie.

May 14, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight explains how Canada's east coast evaded damage from Colonial's cyberattack Click here to read the article on SaltWire.

May 14, 2021 • 2 min read

If consumers were asked by a psychologist, or maybe more appropriately, a psychiatrist whether their glasses were half full or half empty, the response may be “who cares about a theoretical glass?” Your question should be, “are the pipelines half full or half empty?” When it came to the cyberattack and ransomed Colonial then it was more than half empty. It was shut down. Now it’s in restart mode. Only took a week to solve that problem. As for Line 5, this has been under a different atta...

May 14, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $72.77/MWh, representing a drop of $24.02/MWh or 24.8% relative to last week’s price of $96.79/MWh. The decrease in pricing is primarily attributed to minimal periods of market volatility. Year-to-date, we have been accustomed to multi-day, extended periods of increased pricing but, in the past week, there were only 5 hourly periods during which prices peaked to over $100/MWh. In contrast, on May 3rd there were 10 hourly periods wi...

May 14, 2021 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures have continued their upward momentum again this week! Henry Hub natural gas futures for June are trading at US$2.97/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Prompt-month closed at US$2.969/MMBtu yesterday, up $0.031/MMBtu from a week earlier and up $1.249/MMBtu from last year, while prices for the remainder of the injection season (end of October) pushed above US$3/MMBtu. Production declined, due to temporary maintenance, and liquified natural gas (LNG) exports continue to ...

May 10, 2021 • 1 min read

En-Pro's Chief petroleum analyst Roger McKnight talks about the Colonial pipeline cyberattack. The Colonial is the lifeblood of supply and pricing to the eastern seaboard and this shutdown if prolonged, meaning more than a week, this will havea serious effect on prices of all gasoline grades, diesel and jet fuel. The key point is that this is a physical supply artery of refined products into New York Harbor where the daily cash futures prices are set. If and when NYH futures spike they will...

May 07, 2021 • < 1 min read

En-Pro's Chief petroleum analyst Roger McKnight talks about the very real and harmful closure on Bloomberg's Commodities Report Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

May 07, 2021 • 2 min read

As I see it, we are now in the ego stare down segment of the Line 5 envirodrama. People with Placards (herein and forever after referred to as PWP’s) fervoursly and feverously proclaim that there’s “No Messin' with Gretchen.” This, of course, in reference to the governor’s order that Line 5 be shut down forever as of a week from now. I will not attempt to summarize or repeat the warnings of the dangers this closure may have on consumers and refiners on both sides of the border, which ha...

May 07, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $96.79/MWh. Relative to April’s month-end price of $88.61/MWh, this is an increase of $8.18/MWh or 9.23%. So far this month we have experienced 2 days of pricing peaks over $100/MWh, which occurred on the 3rd and 5th, when prices settled to $186.56/MWh and $110.37/MWh, respectively. Average hourly demand in the province was 8,912MW this past week, compared to April’s hourly demand of 9,087MW, representing a decrease of 175MW or 2%....

May 07, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for June are trading at US$2.93/MMBtu as of 2:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Prompt-month futures continued to push against the upper resistance threshold this week, reaching a high of US$3.001/MMBtu on Tuesday, May 4th before retreating to close at US$2.938/MMBtu yesterday. Cooler weather forecasts remain for the upcoming weeks and US liquified natural gas (LNG) exports continue at near-record levels. Overall US gas supply for the week ending April 30th averaged 96.8...

Apr 30, 2021 • 2 min read

If a saying is something that someone has said, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s true. This would be particularly applicable to anything verbosed (my word) by politicians of any rank, or should I say, any rank politician? A former Federal Minster of Something, now Minister of Something Else once soap boxed that the louder you say something, and the more often you say it, the more likely people will believe it. As a collector of all phrases bright and shiny, I have, as loyal rea...

Apr 30, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $90.46/MWh, representing a further decrease of $1.69/MWh or 1.8% relative to last week’s settle of $92.15/MWh. Prices have softened the closer we get to months’ end, with pricing averaging $62.53/MWh from the 24th onward. Demand has remained flat over the past week, with a negligible change of 3MW. Several generator outages caused some volatility in earlier parts of the week, but Genesee 1, Sundance 6, Battle River 4 and HR Milne...

Apr 30, 2021 • 2 min read

Natural gas futures have rallied consistently over the last three weeks to reach 7-week highs and it’s looking as though resistance is finally being established at the US$3/MMbtu level for natural gas delivered at Henry Hub during the summer months, with support levels at the US$2.60/MMbtu mark. Similarly, January 2022 futures at Henry Hub have been moving within about a 30-cent range between US$3/MMbtu and US$3.30/MMBtu. Technically, we are expecting prices to soften some more next week. Pro...

Apr 23, 2021 • 2 min read

Ladies and gentlemen — next up for bid — no, not the 700 sq. ft. condo anywhere in the country, nope, on this Earth Day we are offering you the opportunity to enter your bids to save planet Earth! That’s my script written for President Joe Biden’s opening remarks as the self-appointed master of ceremonies at today’s Virtual Climate Summit ZOOM-athon. Never one to miss a glowing moment in the global political limelight, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was quick off the mark pledging, or was i...

Apr 23, 2021 • 3 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $92.15/MWh, representing a decrease of $1.88/MWh or 2% relative to last week’s settle of $94.03/MWh. Prices averaged over $100/MWh on the 16th and 20th, but this short-lived volatility was offset by the rest of the week’s softer pricing. Demand has continued to decrease slightly by 124MW or 1.4%, which helped suppress prices. Ongoing generator maintenance continues to cause market volatility, which was further impacted by intermi...

Apr 23, 2021 • 2 min read

Looking at futures across the North American board, prices are up predominantly due to colder temperatures this week and this morning’s storage report that come in shy of expectations. It’s amazing how the trickle-down effect works on futures pricing even though the weather really only affects short-term pricing! The EIA released its updated Short-Term Energy Outlook, in which it estimates storage levels at the end of injection season will reach the 5-year average just above 3,700 Bcf. Despite d...

Apr 16, 2021 • 2 min read

Forget about the lyrics from the Dinah Washington song, “what a difference a day makes.” Just wait until you see what a difference 10 years make! I have picked this time frame and left Post-it Notes on the information portfolios of the Canadian contingent who will be sitting opposite their U.S. counterparts as the media talks begin today on the Line 5 fiasco. As we all know by now, this line is critical for 590,000 barrels per day of crude oil supply to the Sarnia family of refineries as w...

Apr 16, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for April is currently $94.03/MWh, representing an increase of $3.32/MWh or 3.7% relative to last week’s settle of $90.71/MWh. April continues to experience elevated levels of volatility, which is a risk En-Pro anticipated coming into 2021. Planned generator outages at Keephills 2 and Sheppard Energy Centre, which combine for a total capacity of 1,263MW, are tightening the supply cushion. This, along with extended outages of major generation facilities...

Apr 16, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for May are trading at US$2.66/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Prompt-month futures moved higher this week, up 5.3% from last Friday's close of US$2.526/MMBtu, as cooler temperature forecasts remain in place for mid-to-late April and strong liquified natural gas (LNG) exports continue to support a tight supply/demand balance. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 1,845 Bcf for the week ending April 9th, 2021, following an injection of 61 Bcf. Thi...

Apr 09, 2021 • 2 min read

Why do I get the feeling that we’re all at the starting line waiting impatiently for the starter to show up, fire his gun and get this show on the road? The metaphorical race I am talking about is the economic one. This country’s economy is commodity based. A key anchor is the oil and gas industry. How long fossil fuels will maintain their headliner status is up in the air of wind powered turbines and photon converting solar panels, which both rely on perfectly windy and sunny days all...

Apr 09, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for April is currently $90.71/MWh, representing an increase of $22.92/MWh or 33.8% relative to March’s settle of $67.79/MWh. At this time of year, we do not expect to see elevated pricing levels, stemming from decreased shoulder season demand. For comparison, April’s demand is currently averaging 9,077MW, whereas February’s average demand was 10,620.23MW - a significant difference of 1,543MW or 17%. While a drop like this in demand would typically decr...

Apr 09, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for May are trading at US$2.50/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Prompt-month prices regained some strength yesterday, rebounding to close at US$2.52/MMBtu after reaching a weekly low of US$2.453/MMBtu on Tuesday. Despite updated weather forecasts calling for cooler temperatures for mid-to-late April, total US demand fell 1.5 Bcf/d alongside warmer temperatures this past week. In addition to increased liquefied natural gas exports, a key driver influencing ...

Apr 01, 2021 • 2 min read

If a coincidence is something that wasn’t planned or arranged, but seems like it was, then we can consider ourselves ‘coincided.’ On the lighter side of this darkness we’re all facing, we have the start of the baseball season to look forward to — a game where an umpire decides whether a pitch falls within his vision, or at times, a version of a strike or a ball. That’s the job of an umpire. This, coincidentally, is the day of another carbon tax increase, (no it's not an April Fool...

Apr 01, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for March settled at $67.79/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $65.41/MWh, this is a minor increase of $2.38/MWh or 3.5%. Variance in pricing was kept to a minimum, with volatility only occurring on 2 separate days; on the 25th and 26th, prices settled at $149.79/MWh and $141.06/MWh, respectively. Intermittent daily generator outages at Battle River 4, Sheerness 1 & 2 and Keephills 2, in addition to the Sundance facilities being offline due to coal-...

Apr 01, 2021 • 2 min read

Prompt month has rolled over to May and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$2.64/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up $0.03/MMBtu from yesterday's close of US$2.608/MMBtu. As heating season winds down, total US demand fell 7 Bcf/d week-over-week, driven by a drop in residential and commercial demand. Market analysts will be closely watching the supply/demand imbalance, as liquefied natural gas exports remain strong and production levels have recovered from the February ...

Mar 26, 2021 • 2 min read

“Gentlemen, boost your batteries and plug in your engines!" That's the new cry for the start of the carbon free Indy 500. Or maybe a domestic version is now: “Canadians sharpen your pencils - it’s election time!” Of course the tie-in to this intro is the ruling by the Supreme Court of Canada (SCC) today that the Trudeaulian carbon tax is within the boundaries of the Constitution, so all provinces and territories within those boundaries, meaning the country as a whole, must adhere/c...

Mar 26, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for March is currently $65.41/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $74.23/MWh, we have experienced a decrease of $8.82/MWh or 11.9%. Pricing is starting to return to seasonal norms, as we continue to see a decrease in hourly volatility and off-peak pricing remaining steady. This past week, Power Pool pricing averaged $45.50/MWh, which is helping to curb month-to-date prices. Even with a few hourly peaks this month, such as on March 21st when pricing ...

Mar 26, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for April are trading at US$2.61/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up $0.092/MMBtu from yesterday's close of US $2.518/MMBtu. As we move into a low demand shoulder period, forward pricing will likely be impacted by increases in production and liquefied natural gas exports more than by weather. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 1,746 Bcf for the week ending March 19th, 2021, following a withdrawal of 36 Bcf. Storage levels are now 13.1% below ye...

Mar 19, 2021 • 2 min read

I find the switch from, "save the darkness to daylight savings time" confusing because I never know what time it really is, which creates a sort of mental eclipse. Be prepared because we are about to enter a different type of time zone with a fiscal eclipse on the horizon. What am I talking about? I'm glad you asked. This is when the environment casts a shadow on our economy. This also triggers the emergence of political amphibians to seek higher, safer, and sunnier ground. Phase o...

Mar 19, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for March is currently $73.47/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $89.71/MWh, this represents a decrease of $16.47/MWh or 18.1%. Since the start of the year, the market has been volatile due to seasonal demand changes, which has caused daily price spikes. This week, however, daily volatility was kept to a minimum, as there was only one day with significant activity. On March 16th, between 8am and 3pm MST, the hourly price averaged $159.96/MWh, with a...

Mar 19, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for April are trading at US$2.49/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Total US demand decreased week-over-week, with milder weather taking hold, while production remained above 90 bcf/d. After reaching a closing high of US$2.562/MMBtu on Tuesday, March 16th, prompt-month futures have again fallen below US$2.50/MMBtu. Continued low prices have the potential to boost demand for natural gas consumed by electric power plants to generate electricity (power burn), a...

Mar 15, 2021 • < 1 min read

Roger McKnight talks with BMN/Bloomberg about rising gas prices. Click here to read the article on BNN Bloomberg.

Mar 12, 2021 • 2 min read

Why does the image of a cat about to swallow its freshly caught canary come to mind when I attempt to decipher the developments of the Line 5 discussions between the government representatives of the U.S. and Canada? The problem is — we, the canaries, don’t know what’s being discussed with the very large and grinning U.S. cat. As I see it, we are in a situation with no one to blame but ourselves. How can we build cross Canada rail and natural gas systems whose routes never cross the border...

Mar 12, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for March is currently $89.71/MWh, representing a significant drop of $67.18/MWh or 43% relative to February’s market rate of $156.89/MWh. Average hourly demand in the province has also dropped 6.4% to 9,937MW, compared to February’s average demand of 10,620MW. Furthermore, temperatures have returned closer to seasonal norms and, as such, we are no longer experiencing significant periods of volatility like we did last month. While peak volatility has d...

Mar 12, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for April are trading at US$2.66/MMBtu as of 1:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Above normal temperatures have caused total demand to fall, putting downward pressure on natural gas prices. After closing at a weekly high of US$2.692/MMBtu yesterday, prompt-month futures are down $0.124 from a week earlier and up $0.756 from last year. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 1,793 Bcf for the week ending March 5th, 2021, following a withdrawal of 52 Bcf. This bearish re...

Mar 05, 2021 • 2 min read

If you can have a virtual meeting, which to me means you’re there but not really; then what about virtual hearing, which I now proudly proclaim as not really hearing nor really listening. I believe a word for all of this is, pretending. The following is what I imagine I virtually overheard on the state of our energy, or more accurately our energy picture as viewed from the states to our south. From here on, my virtual comments (VC) will be in brackets. “I don’t think President Biden ...

Mar 05, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for February settled at $156.89/MWh. Relative to last week’s price, this is a decrease of 9% or $14.09/MWh. Pricing near the end of the month was fairly suppressed, which helped soften the impact of February’s cold snap to average prices. While the first 17 days of the month saw prices average $213.95/MWh due to inclement weather, prices averaged $63.74/MWh during the last 10 days of the month. That said, a few volatile periods, on the 26th between 6pm...

Mar 05, 2021 • 3 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for April are trading at US$2.73/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon. The volatility continues, as prompt-month prices increased to US$2.839/MMBtu at Tuesday's close before pulling back again. While natural gas production has rebounded after the recent well freeze-offs, weather forecasts continue to be a wild card and US demand is forecasted to fall 2.9 Bcf/d to average 101.2 Bcf/d for the week ending March 5th. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 1...

Feb 26, 2021 • 2 min read

As the saying goes: “It ain’t what you say, it’s the way that you say it,” I have taken my audacity pill today and have changed this to: “It’s ain’t what you say, it’s when we heard you say it.” That’s my bumper sticker suggestion that all politicians should fear when tailgating a loyal electorate. A stuck on my shoe topic that won’t go away, (and I won’t let it) is the Line 5 melodrama playing out before our eyes, and that has the potential for becoming a horror story we will all be force...

Feb 26, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for February is currently $170.98/MWh. The cold snap has finally subsided and, as a result, we are seeing daily prices decrease. Unfortunately, the damage has already been done and February will end up with an extremely high Power Pool Price. Over the past week, prices have averaged $61.78/MWh, which is why we have seen a significant month-to-date drop of $42.97/MWh or 20.1%. We only experienced one volatile period over the past week, on the 23rd from ...

Feb 26, 2021 • 2 min read

A lot can change in a week with milder temperature forecasts! Prompt month has rolled over to April and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$2.78/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. The March contract closed on February 24 at US$2.854/MMBtu, down over 11% from the close of US$3.219/MMBtu on February 17. The EIA report estimates natural gas production in Texas during the cold snap declined almost 45%, dropping from 21.3 Bcf/d during the week ending February 13 to a daily low of ...

Feb 24, 2021 • < 1 min read

En-Pro offers new energy management programs for clients seeking to take advantage of EV charging solutions. The continued growth in electric vehicles on Canadian roads has created the need for fueling infrastructure to service tenants, guests, and customers of multi-residential, hospitality and commercial properties. This presents an opportunity and unique challenge for hosts to deploy EV charging solutions. En-Pro’s full-service energy management program now offers EV charging solutions that w...

Feb 19, 2021 • 2 min read

From the sounds of it, this is all getting to me and everyone else as well. If we’re all locked down to varying degrees, depending on the varying rules being proclaimed by the variety of medico-politico experts, then someone explain to me: If no one is on the road then how come the prices of gasoline and diesel aren’t in lockdown mode as well? Here’s my take on it – you can take it or, ummm, not take it: The last time we saw pump and rack prices at these levels was late March 2019. Th...

Feb 19, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for February is currently $213.95/MWh, as cold weather continues to have an extreme impact on hourly pricing. While we typically expect volatility to subside and prices to decrease over the course of a weekend, this has not been the case recently; prices averaged $130.95/MWh this past weekend. Starting on the 16th, volatility altered its usual trend of an early morning start and relief in the evening, as prices remained volatile throughout the night; p...

Feb 19, 2021 • 2 min read

Natural gas volatility persists, as the cold arctic weather continued to impact the North American natural gas market this week. Henry Hub natural gas futures for March are trading at US$3.08/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Futures for March settled at US$3.219/MMBtu yesterday, with prompt-month prices reaching highs not seen since November 2020, up $0.308 from a week earlier and up $1.238 from last year. Weather patterns, increased demand, and supply challenges are the key factors in...

Feb 11, 2021 • 2 min read

What? There’s a plan B for Line 9B?! Aren’t we just grasping at pipes here? It’s a subject that just won’t go away, even though politicians keep letting it get away. A circumnavigating way of saying that they can’t just snap their figures and declare death of crude oil derived from fossil fuels. Until such time as solar, wind, and battery power become as reliable and available as fossil fuels then, like it or not, we have to have energy all the time – and crud...

Feb 11, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for February is currently $196.64/MWh. After a mild start to the month, the recent cold snap sweeping the province has caused havoc on demand and hourly pricing. Hourly demand during the first days of the month averaged 10,588MW, whereas it averaged 357MW or 3.4% more during the subsequent week. Over the past week, we have experienced daily price volatility beginning early in the morning, at 7am MST, and continuing throughout most of the day, typically...

Feb 11, 2021 • 2 min read

In Canada, natural gas prices in the spot market are taking center stage this week, with the onset of frigid temperatures across the country. The February spot rate at AECO has averaged C$3.71/GJ month-to-date, up 42.7% from January's settle, with the daily price on February 10th spiking to $5.33/GJ. Dawn has averaged C$3.72/GJ month-to-date, up 22.7% from January. Today the next-day Dawn index prices spiked to average around C$5.79/GJ! Extreme cold weather advisories have been issued for m...

Feb 05, 2021 • 2 min read

Why do I get an image of a stampede to decarbonize -- first the world -- and then perhaps the universe, as nothing more than a political art auction? Leaders of government interests, and I use that term as a deliberate oxymoron, appear to be trying to outbid each other in the race to the Zero-carbon finish line. As in any auction there comes a time when the winning bidder approaches the auctioneer to commit to the purchase. But there is no room to bluff out on the deal. The potential ec...

Feb 05, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for January settled at $75.18/MWh. The last week of January experienced a significant number of hourly price spikes, which was primarily driven by extensive cold periods throughout the province. Parts of the province also experienced extreme weather warnings, which drove temperatures down even more. At the end of January, there were a few intermittent outages at HR Milner, Battle River 4 and Sundance 6. These outages contributed further to volatile per...

Feb 05, 2021 • 2 min read

What a difference a week makes. Last Friday, Henry Hub natural gas futures for March closed at US$2.56/MMBtu after declining by 4.35% that day; they are now trading at US$2.96/MMBtu as of 3:30pm EDT Thursday afternoon! Price volatility continued this week, with prompt-month reaching a high of US$3.005/MMBtu on Tuesday, February 2nd, a new high for 2021, before dropping to yesterday's close of US$2.789/MMBtu. Prices are up $0.29/MMBtu from a week earlier and up $0.92/MMBtu from last year, al...

Jan 29, 2021 • 2 min read

Coming up with a “Eureka” thought/moment as an inspiration for these weekly comments on petroleum related energy issues in this country at times requires a honing of my obituary writing skills, which may be well past their best before dates (BBD). Aha! That was my inspirational thought-trigger for this week’s "oracalization." If the Thousand Island dressing stored in my fridge door has grown lots more islands of a disturbingly dark blue hue then maybe, just maybe, the ”best before” is ...

Jan 29, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently $68.86/MWh. Compared to last week’s price of $47.18/MWh, this represents a significant increase of $21.68/MWh or 46%. There has been substantial market activity over the past week, which has resulted in pricing volatility. With colder temperatures across the province, as well as extreme weather warnings in parts of eastern Alberta, demand increased drastically. In addition, there were generator outages at Battle River 4 and Gen...

Jan 29, 2021 • 2 min read

Prompt month has rolled over to March and Henry Hub natural gas futures are trading at US$2.65/MMBtu as of 1:00pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Futures for February settled at US$2.76/MMBtu at yesterday's close, with prices pushing higher over the past few days, up $0.221 from a week earlier and up $0.826 from last year, as forecasts for colder weather patterns in February are expected. Overall, total US demand declined in the week ending January 22nd, due to a decrease in natural gas consumed by...

Jan 22, 2021 • 2 min read

Why is it late? Was there an accident? Did the bus driver get lost? Out of frustration, the Canadian oil industry went out into the street to see if the Keystone XL express was on its way because Alberta was late getting its workers to work. Then BAM! The bus wasn’t late — Alberta and the Canadian economy just got run over by it. The first priority for freshly inaugurated President Joe Biden was to rename the Keystone XL as the Keystoned Axed L. After 11 years, this project is of...

Jan 22, 2021 • 2 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently $47.18/MWh. Compared to last week’s price of $47.03/MWh, this represents a marginal increase of $0.15/MWh or 0.3%. We continue to experience market volatility, but not to the extent which would significantly impact monthly prices. Daily peaks have been kept to one occurrence over the past few days. For example, on the 18th prices hit $110.00/MWh at 6pm MST, on the 19th prices reached $76.37/MWh at 7pm MST and, finally, prices s...

Jan 22, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for February are trading at US$2.473/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Prices dropped to a low of $2.454 US/MMBtu on Wednesday, January 20th, before rallying higher to close at US$2.539/MMBtu. Prompt-month futures are down $0.188 from a week earlier and up $0.644 from last year. Ongoing shifts in weather patterns continue to add to the volatility, as markets wait to see if cold Artic temperatures will materialize at the end of the month as previously antici...

Jan 21, 2021 • < 1 min read

En-Pro’s Chief Petroleum Analyst, Roger McKnight says the cancellation of the Keystone is a, “slap in the face for Canada.” Click here to read the article on 650 CKOM.

Jan 15, 2021 • 2 min read

NEW EXECUTIVE APPOINTMENTS – EN-PRO INTERNATIONAL INC. Oshawa, ON (January 14, 2021) - The Board of Directors of En-Pro International Inc. is pleased to announce the appointment of John R. Kiemele as the company’s new President and CEO effective January 1, 2021. He has replaced Edward Lukow FCPA, FCA who held the position since 2002 and will remain on the Board of Directors as Secretary Treasurer. John joined the company in 1988 as an Energy Analyst and successfully worked his way thro...

Jan 15, 2021 • 2 min read

Back in the dark ages when I was in grade school, it was impressed upon me that the way to learn something is to keep repeating it until it makes sense. In this week’s Energy Report, I will put that hypothesis to the test. In our November 19, 2020 Energy Report, we warned of the potential closure of Enbridge’s Line 5, and the possible, if not likely implications, for supply of Alberta crude on the input side, coupled with supply and prices of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel on the output half ...

Jan 15, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for January is currently $47.03/MWh. Compared to last week’s price of $44.61/MWh, this represents a net increase of $2.42/MWh or 5.4%. Volatility this past week has been minor compared to the week prior. There was only one instance of a Power Pool Price peaking over $100/MWh, on January 12th at 8am MST, when the price reached $126.59/MWh, before settling back to seasonal norms. Average hourly demand has increased slightly week-over-week, rising by 0.8%...

Jan 15, 2021 • 1 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for February are trading at US$2.703/MMBtu as of 1:15pm EDT Thursday afternoon. Price volatility persisted this week, with shifting weather patterns, lower production and higher exports continuing to be the driving factors. The prompt-month contract reached a near six week high of US$2.899/MMBtu on January 12 before closing at US$2.727/MMBtu yesterday. The markets are cautiously watching the possible onset of a polar vortex which could bring colder temperatures at t...

Jan 08, 2021 • 2 min read

With the launch of the “good ship 2021,” there is one thing that we all know that is for certain – we are entering a year long voyage through a fog of more uncertainty. Yes, that doesn’t instill an appreciable level of confidence at the launch of price forecasting season, which is now. Confining discussion to the liquid petroleum arc of the energy rainbow, where, how, and why prices will move over the next 12 (dare I say 24 months), will depend on which cat wins the alley fight. There ar...

Jan 08, 2021 • 1 min read

Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently $44.61/MWh. Compared to last month’s price of $38.74/MWh, this represents a net increase of $5.87/MWh or 15.2%. As expected, pricing has already been volatile in the New Year, reaching an hourly high of $184.21/MWh on January 4th at 9am MST. While this price spike did not coincide with the peak hourly demand that day, it did concur with daily demand of over 10,000MW. With this said, daily pricing on January 4th settled at $81.9...

Jan 08, 2021 • 2 min read

Henry Hub natural gas futures for February are trading at US$2.733/MMBtu as of 1:20pm EDT Thursday afternoon, up 6.5% from Monday's low of US$2.566/MMBtu and an increase of 18.6% from the January contract expiry of $2.305 US/MMBtu. Strong liquified natural gas exports and cooler temperatures in the longer-range forecast helped drive prices higher this week, suggesting further tightening of the supply/demand imbalance. The EIA estimated working gas storage was 3,330 Bcf for the week ending J...

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