CURRENT MARKET DRIVERS – Roger McKnight, Chief Petroleum Analyst – April 08, 2022

Pump prices may go into hover mode but for how long?

There was an increase of 2.4 million barrels in crude this week, but levels are still 14% below the 5-year average. Gasoline inventories remain basically flat, which is good, and refineries are now cranking up to prep for the summer driving season with the critical Gulf Coast family of refineries running now at 95% capacity. All this supports flat to lower prices in the near term.

There is also evidence of price fatigue with the rate of demand increase noticeable slowing. Add in the potential SPR withdrawls and tax reductions in some areas and this should throw some water on the pricing fire.

BNN Gas Price Forecast

Gasoline pump price change estimate one week out starting date April 9, 2022, $/L

Location

Change Average Price
Vancouver

– 0.01

1.93

Calgary

1.55

Regina

1.69

Winnipeg

– 0.01

1.73

Toronto

+ 0.01

1.66

Montreal

+ 0.01

1.75

Halifax

– 0.02

1.65

– Roger McKnight – B.Sc., Senior Petroleum Analyst